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Tomorrow’s Conventional Wisdom, Today!

This is a starling quote from the omnipresent Larry Sabato, who tells the Boston Herald that Democratic Senate candidate Martha Coakley’s “light schedule of campaign events” is evidence of a lazy campaign that’s wasted a big lead in the Massachusetts special election. That’s not the money quote; this is.

In a competitive state, Coakley would be well on her way to losing. If the Democrats lose, they deserve to have health care go down.

That’s right–Coakley’s losing ground not because of health care, but because she’s running a lazy campaign. And if she loses, the Democrats “deserve” to have the health care bill fail. That’s some serious spin — it makes a wintry special election more important than the presidential election, 435 House races, and 34 Senate races that produced the current executive and legislative branches. And expect to hear more of that.

The Herald piece also gets into spin I’m hearing from a lot of Republicans — that, in the words of John Feehery, interim Sen. Paul Kirk (D-Mass.) “should’ve just shut up” instead of telling a reporter he’d vote for the health care bill no matter who won the special election. That doesn’t quite wash — Kirk would have caused a firestorm among liberals if he suggested that he’d vote against Ted Kennedy’s life’s work depending on who turned out in a January special election. But it’s become a rallying point for conservatives who, in the face of a less lazy Coakley campaign, are trying to keep up a push against her “arrogance.”

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