Smart People React to Obama’s Afghanistan-Pakistan Speech

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Afghans will be worried about the “18 months” and will think this means we’re getting out. However, President couldn’t say much less to Americans; indefinite stay would be too much to sustain. However, he was not clear about what 18 months means. What I have heard from State/DOD/WH briefing today was that goals were condition based. if/if President sticks to the line that this is a goal, not a time line, that changes will be rigorously conditions based and not an automatic trip wire, and that we will move to “overwatch”, not out until Afghans can handle the problem then we can reassure Afghans over time. There are no words that will solve the problem, only actions will have meaning to Afghans. If we keep talking only about how we’re getting out in 18 months Afghans will look to how they survive rather than put their support into serving.

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President Obama’s new Afghanistan strategy is “disrupt now defeat later,” a clever counterterrorism and counterinsurgency hybrid devoid of costly nation-building — enough to weaken Taliban and al-Qaeda in the next 18 months but not enough to stop their return in the next five years, keeping Afghanistan in a precarious cycle of state failure, civil war and regional proxy wars. The message is clear: America will disrupt and dismantle Al Qaeda and worry about defeating it at a more opportune time — perhaps after Obama’s reelection and when the economy recovers. On balance it hopes to deter bleeding but ignores long-term infection.

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Obama’s Pakistan strategy makes me even less optimistic and perplexed. Noting that the real threat comes from nuclear-armed Pakistan vulnerability to al-Qaeda, President Obama still falls short of a comprehensive regional policy. For example, there was little mention of sustaining Pakistan’s gains against the Taliban and augmenting its capacity in combination with Pakistani and Indian ‘influence-sharing’ in Afghanistan. Overall it promises partnership sans strategic guidance.

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The President has chosen the best of his bad options in Afghanistan by clarifying U.S. objectives there, bolstering international commitment to the mission, and signaling American resolve. What is most important over the next year is altering the perceived trajectory and momentum of the war–in the eyes of Americans, our allies, the enemy, and most of all, the Afghan people. Balancing resolve with flexibility is key: the U.S. has many interests around the world, and so must avoid succumbing to strategic distraction. If the President and his advisors can avoid falling in love with their plan — remaining realists focused on U.S. interests and what’s achievable — then executing this strategy well offers the best chance of stability in Afghanistan and South Asia.