The new Siena Research poll of the special election in New York’s 20th Congressional District gives Democrat Scott Murphy a four point lead over Republican Jim Tedisco. Tedisco had led by four points two weeks ago and 12 points two weeks before that.
Democratic candidate Scott Murphy – 47 (+6)
Republican candidate Jim Tedisco – 43 (-2)
Libertarian candidate Eric Sundwall – 2 (+1)
Murphy has moved ahead by consolidating the support of Democrats and taking 27 percent of Republicans from Tedisco. Tedisco has actually gained ground among independents, but it hasn’t been enough to stop a bleed in his own positive numbers — Tedisco is widely seen as running a dirty ad campaign. Also helping out Murphy: Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand’s approval is at 76 percent, and President Obama’s approval is at 65 percent, and both have endorsed Murphy and lent their images to ads for him.
What’s this mean? Well, the election is on Tuesday, so we’ll know more then. But it suggests that the attacks on Murphy for 1) saying he would have voted for the stimulus, which meant he would have accidentally supported the AIG bonus loophole and 2) being a rich investor have not worked for Tedisco. The Republican had criticized the negative ads in the race and promised to run a positive campaign. Then the AIG bonus story broke, and he and the NRCC pounded Murphy over the story. It hasn’t borne fruit, according to this poll.
TWI is on Twitter. Follow David Weigel’s ongoing coverage of the NY-20 race here.
Pentagon Shooter Exploited Gun-Show Loophole
John Patrick Bedell, who shot and wounded two police officers near the Pentagon earlier this month, bought at least one of his 9 mm guns at a Nevada gun show,
MA-Sen: 150 Conservative Bloggers Fan Out, Looking for Scandals
BOSTON -- The mysterious Election Journal blog, which first released the infamous 2008 video of two bumbling New Black Panther Party members waving nightsticks
MA-Sen: Brown Wins
BOSTON -- At 9:20, the first rumors of Scott Brown’s victory in the Massachusetts Senate race started to work around the room. A moment later, Doug Flutie
MA-Sen: 66 to 19
BOSTON -- That, via Alex Isenstadt and Josh Kraushaar, is the number that defined the Massachusetts Senate race more than anything else. From the primary
MA-Sen: A Text Message From Scott Brown
BOSTON -- Having signed up for Scott Brown’s text message service for election day, I just got this text: Are you about to have lunch? It’s a great time to
MA-Sen: Out-of-Staters for Brown
BOSTON -- A surprising discovery at yesterday’s People’s Rally in Worcester was just how many people had traveled into the state to assist, in whatever way,
MA-Sen Photos: ‘Paint the Town Red! Croakley’s Dead!’
Below are some photos of yesterday’s People’s Rally in Worcester, the rally that Brown held to counter-program the Obama rally in Boston. The crush of
Menendez, Lautenberg to Continue BP-Lockerbie Investigation
Sens. Robert Menendez and Frank Lautenberg, both New Jersey Democrats, will continue to seek details about BP’s alleged involvement in the release last year of
Net Investors Bullish on Palin’s Prospects for Staying on Ticket
Just for fun, the Internet prediction Website Intrade has opened a contract on whether Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin will be withdrawn as McCain’s running mate.
No Experience Necessary
Gov. Sarah Palin’s a middle-class hockey mom, but does that really qualify her to be vice president?