Iowa Electronic Markets betting on GOP retaining control of the House
Traders on the Iowa Electronic Markets seem convinced Republicans will retain control of the U.S. House in 2012 and gain control of the U.S. Senate.
Stock for that scenario is trading above $.60 on the real money futures market operated by the University of Iowa’s Tippie College of Business, and has trended up since the market opened in mid-July.
That means traders believe there’s a more than 60 percent chance of Republicans controlling both houses of Congress following the 2012 general election.
Traders aren’t willing to put much stock in other scenarios. A Republican-held House and Democratic-held Senate is trading near $.10, as is a scenario where Democrats control Congress. A Democratic House and Republican Senate is trading near $.05.
Traders receive $1 if the scenario they invested in proves to be correct. All others will receive $0, and traders can invest up to $500 in the market.