Bob Poe, a former state commissioner and past president of the Anchorage Economic Development Corp., is the first to announce for the race. Republican Gov. Sarah Palin hasn’t said for sure whether she plans to run for re-election.

Poe, asked why he’s announcing so early, said it gives him time to get out and meet voters. He cited a comment in the Alaska Ear, which, reporting on rumors he would run, suggested the first thing that people would ask is, “Who’s Bob Poe?”

Palin is still popular, mind you: Her approval rating is 60 percent, and as much as 51 percent of Alaska wants her to win a second term. That’s just way, way down from approval ratings that once topped 80 percent.

At the least, Poe might spur Palin to spend more time governing and less time belly-aching about how the media mistreated her.

Richard Danzig (Navy.mil)

Thursday’s announcement of the new senior subcabinet leadership at the Dept. of Defense was conspicuous for a name it didn’t include: Richard Danzig.

Danzig, a former secretary of the Navy, has been one of President-elect Barack Obama’s chief defense advisers for over a year. His absence hints at a development with great significance for Obama’s first term: the implicit recognition that Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, Pentagon chief under President Bush and tapped by Obama to continue in the job, will not be a placeholder for a Democratic appointee waiting in the wings, as many in the defense community and Democratic politics have presumed.

Illustration by: Matt Mahurin

Instead of Danzig, Clinton-era Pentagon comptroller and former Sen. Ted Kennedy (D-Mass.) staffer, William Lynn, currently a vice president of the Raytheon Co. defense corporation, will be nominated for the deputy secretary position. Michele Flournoy, a co-founder of the new Center for a New American Security think tank — which has distinguished itself as a home for theorists and advocates of counterinsurgency, stability operations and irregular warfare — was tapped to become undersecretary of defense for policy, a pick that indicates Gates wanted in a partner for his recent efforts at reconfiguring the Pentagon to focus on complex and untraditional methods of warfare.

Conversations with Pentagon officials and those close to the Obama transition suggest that Danzig — once thought a likely prospect for deputy secretary — possessed a different set of skills than those Gates wanted in a deputy, indicating Gates’ influence over the Pentagon transition. “He sees it as [a] management” job, a Pentagon official who spoke on the condition of anonymity said, noting that Danzig is a defense theorist in his own right. The outgoing deputy secretary, Gordon England, was also primarily tasked with managing the complex day-to-day tasks at the Pentagon while the secretaries he served, Gates and Donald Rumsfeld, set policy. Management and not vision is the traditional role of the deputy secretary, with the neoconservative defense theorist Paul Wolfowitz, deputy secretary from 2001 to 2005, as the only recent exception.

The official noted that Gates does not see himself as a benchwarmer secretary who remains in office to get the military comfortable with Obama so that the president-elect can then appoint a Democrat to the position. “There’s not a hard and fast date” to Gates’ retention at the agency, the official said, although Gates’ coterie of aides is operating on the prudential assumption that he’ll stay in the job for about a year at least.

Gates is likely to use that time to make his mark on the Pentagon, the official said. During the last two years of the Bush administration, Gates’ tenure overwhelmingly focused on Iraq, and his aides carried special watches to remind themselves that they had a limited time in office. But now that he is remaining in the Obama administration, the official said, he is likely to focus as well on the tasks he has envisioned in his public statements and writings, such as refitting the Pentagon to focus on “institutionalizing counterinsurgency skills and the ability to conduct stability and support operations,” rather than focusing just on traditional combat, as he recently wrote in a Foreign Affairs article.

Democratic officials close to the Pentagon transition team who would not speak for either attribution or quotation indicated that they felt Gates was a more natural fit for the Obama administration than he was for the Bush administration. His well-received efforts at crafting a more realistic defense posture; emphasizing the civilian and not the military aspects of foreign policy and defense; and repeated emphasis on counterinsurgency and irregular warfare have been championed by several defense experts in the Obama transition’s orbit. Flournoy’s arrival as policy chief reflects that congruence.

A veteran of the Clinton Pentagon, Flournoy has in recent years devoted her efforts to a vision consistent with Gates’ inclinations. The Center for a New American Security, which she founded with Kurt Campbell — who reportedly will take a senior position at the State Dept. — has distinguished itself as the central Washington think tank for understanding counterinsurgency and stability operations, a complex panoply of joint military, political, economic and social measures to bolster governmental capacity against violent rejectionists and keep the peace in places like Iraq and Afghanistan. CNAS has hired a number of defense experts with deep experience in counterinsurgency, Iraq and Afghanistan, including, most recently, David Kilcullen, a former senior aide to Gen. David Petraeus and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice.

As undersecretary for policy, Flournoy will play an important role in shaping the U.S.’ overall defense posture at a time when a debate is unfolding over how much emphasis the military should place on counterinsurgency and what the proper balance ought to be between civilian and military forms of national power. She is likely to bring several counterinsurgency-focused scholars from CNAS into the Pentagon, though neither the transition nor CNAS have commented on such prospective hires.

“CNAS is proud that President Elect Obama has chosen Michele Flournoy to be the next Under Secretary of Defense for Policy,” said spokesman Price Floyd. “She has been a great leader for CNAS and will be a great leader for the Defense Department.”

When he arrived at the Pentagon in 2007, Gates focused overwhelmingly on Iraq, and did not seek to replace the Rumsfeld-era political appointees he held over, with the notable exceptions of Air Force Secretary Michael Wynne, whom he fired in mid-2008 for laxity in U.S. nuclear security, along with Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. Michael Moseley. Ironically, under a Democratic president, Gates is helping construct a Pentagon team that reflects his perspective on the future of U.S. defense. Regardless of how long Gates actually remains in office, that team will have an impact on Obama’s foreign policy.

“He’s not a caretaker,” the Pentagon official said. “He’s going to do what he’s been laying out.”

He prefers the term “transnational violent extremists” to “terrorists” — as in, Afghanistan can’t again become a haven for transnational violent extremists. Petraeus opens with the challenges in Afghanistan, where there “is nothing easy,”  and they’re well known: a deterioration of security; rampant corruption; poor governance.” And then:

“Afghanistan is not Iraq,” Petraeus says, reminding that “every case is unique” in counterinsurgency. (What about the so-called Sons of Afghanistan program, which is basically a template lifted from Iraq? He doesn’t say.)

He quotes Gen. David McKiernan’s much-cited “tyrannies of topography, distance and weather” to distinguish the two countries, and adds that the “human terrain” is much different, in terms of illiteracy rates, tribal ties and natural resources. Basic services — electricity and water, in particular — lag well behind Iraq, which itself is not exactly service-heavy. Petraeus might have added that Afghanistan basically lacks infrastructure as well.

“Achieving progress, needless to say, will take time,” Petraeus adds, requiring a “sustained” commitment. Progress in security needs to go hand-in-hand with development of infrastructure, the rule of law and governance capabilities, including the provision of credible elections. (All this is basic counterinsurgency stuff.) More Afghan security forces are necessary, but so are “greater civilian contributions” and greater international assistance.

“It’s not possible to solve the problems internal to Afghanistan without addressing the challenges” to Afghanistan’s neighbors, especially Pakistan, and especially in Pakistan’s northwest frontier province, which Petraeus cites as more dangerous to Pakistan than India. (Diplomatic!) “The central Asian states must also be part of the strategy for Afghanistan,” he contends. That might be an interesting component to Petraeus’ south-Asia review. There are also congruent interests with “Iran, although there are also conflicting interests,” and with a smile, Petraeus quickly changes the subject away from that controversy.

“Partners, not occupiers,” was how Petraeus summed up the basic relationship between the United States, NATO and Afghanistan. It’s as much a goal as a description of the situation America faces in Afghanistan. In the end, a “sustained commitment” from the United States to the entire region has the greatest chance of producing success and stability, from the perspective of U.S. interests. Not a word about talks with the Taliban this time around, though.

After praising Dean’s “outstanding work,” Obama highlighted Kaine’s “progressive philosophy” that allowed him to build “a model of good and responsible government in the Commonwealth of Virginia.”

Kaine, who in February 2007 became one of the first prominent supporters of Obama’s presidential campaign, initially rejected Obama’s efforts to convince to take the helm of the party, but today he told the president-elect, “You are a very persuasive individual.”

He laid out three goals for his tenure as DNC chair: to “promote this president’s agenda,” to “carry the proud banner of this proud party” and to “engage Americans in new ways in politics.”

But he acknowledged the challenges of following in Dean’s footsteps. Under Dean’s four-year watch, the Democrats took control of Congress in 2006 and then made further gains in 2008 while also winning the presidency.

“I’ve got huge shoes to fill,” he admitted.

For the first time at a post-election press conference, Obama did not take questions from reporters.

Kaine must be officially elected by the DNC, but with Obama’s endorsement, it’s a foregone conclusion.

It was no mystery that Rep. Henry Waxman (D-Cal.) was intent on making environment-friendly changes when he swept the chairmanship of the powerful House Energy and Commerce Committee from beneath auto-friendly Rep. John Dingell (D-Mich.) in November. And this week, that house-cleaning began in earnest.

In a reshuffling that will remove several Dingell allies from key environmentally sensitive posts, Waxman melded two E&C subcommittees — the Energy & Air Quality panel and the Environment & Hazardous Materials panel — to form the Energy and Environment subcommittee, of which Rep. Edward Markey (D-Mass.) will be the chairman, the Boston Globe reported today.

Markey, who also heads the House committee on energy independence and global warming, has long been among the most fervent congressional environmentalists, pushing for increased fuel efficiency standards and protection of the Alaska’s Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, among a long list of pet causes.

Displaced in Waxman’s reorganization will be Rep. Rick Boucher, a Virginia Democrat who has long protected the interests of Big Coal. Boucher, who heads the soon-to-be-disbanded Energy and Air Quality Subcommittee, will instead take control of the Subcommittee on Telecommunications and the Internet, a post currently held by Markey. Rep. Gene Green (D-Tex.), another Dingell ally who now heads the soon-to-be-extinct Environment & Hazardous Materials panel, is apparently out of a chairmanship.

Grist writer David Roberts has a nice wrap-up today of the implications of all this reshuffling:

This gives Markey a one-two punch: he can craft and help pass climate/energy legislation through the Subcommittee while using the Select Committee to educate other committee chairs about how the issue affects their jurisdictions. I can’t think of another committee chair who has the same kind of megaphone with which to drum up support for his own legislation, in the House and among the public.

With this move, Pelosi’s House further cements itself as the likely force for boldness on climate/energy issues in coming years. The Speaker is by all accounts a sincere and committed greenie. She has Waxman at the helm of the relevant committee. She has Markey running the relevant subcommittee and doing education/advocacy. Dingell and his allies — the go-slow lobby — have been cleared away. All systems are go.

From American Banker:

Though the banking industry has opposed such a bill for two years, lawmakers have agreed to narrow the scope of the legislation to win industry support. So far, Citigroup Inc has indicated it would back the compromise. At a press conference this afternoon, lawmakers are expected to unveil a bill that would only apply to nontraditional loans originated before the law’s enactment date. The legislation would also require that borrowers made good-faith efforts to work with their lenders to rework their mortgages before initiating the bankruptcy process. Lenders who violated the Truth in lending Act would also waive certain priority creditor rights afforded under bankruptcy protection.

American Banker’s sources said Citigroup approached Sen. Charles Schumer, D-NY, with the possible compromise in December. The bank, the recipient of government bailout money, feared a tougher version would be enacted in a new Obama administration. Negotiations are ongoing, according to American Banker:

Citigroup’s negotiations continued this week with Sen. Richard Durbin, D-Ill., the primary Senate sponsor of the mortgage bankruptcy bill, and Senate Banking Committee Chairman Chris Dodd, who has been a vocal advocate of the legislation. “The senator has been in touch with Citi since last year and as recent as this week and is working together with Dodd and Durbin to try to make this happen,” said an aide to Sen. Schumer. It’s unclear how quickly the legislation could move — or whether other banks will sign on to the Citi deal. Sen. Schumer said in a statement he wants to attach the bill to the economic stimulus package.

Also there’s no word yet from housing advocates as to whether they’ll support the compromise. Still, considering the idea never had a chance of seeing daylight for the past eight years, any progress is better than nothing. The fact that banks and lawmakers are even tackling this also suggest how severe the foreclosure crisis has become.

[I]t’s important to note that every economist, conservative or liberal, at this point agrees that we have to have a substantial recovery plan that helps to jump-start the economy, that short term it’s going to be expensive, but it would be much more expensive to see the economy continue in the tailspin that it’s been going in. We’ve seen ranges from [$]800 [billion] to [$]1.3 trillion and our attitude was that given the legislative process, if we start towards the low end of that, we’ll see how it develops.

Pressed if the package would get bigger than the $775 billion the Obama team tossed out earlier this week, the Illinois Democrat said simply, “We don’t know yet.”

Sounds like a good time to start canning vegetables.

For the last eight years, President Bush has led our country with firm determination and a steady hand in the face of numerous challenges and crises. He restored honor and integrity to the White House and protected America from another terrorist attack.

As President and Mrs. Bush prepare to leave Washington in a few weeks to return to Texas, I know I speak for Republicans and grassroots leaders across America when I say we are all grateful for their tremendous service to our country. To show our appreciation for our Commander-in-Chief, the RNC is asking every Republican to sign an electronic card that will be presented to President Bush before he leaves office. It is the least each of us can do to show our gratitude to the leader of our country and our Party.

“Gratitude” for what he’s done for Republicans? Maybe he should have sent this to the MoveOn.org list.

Iraq: “We have now terminated the debate about whether there should or should not be a fixed date for U.S. disengagement,” he says, citing the Status of Forces Agreement. But a “military departure alone” just requires “serious regional consultations” with all of Iraq’s neighbors for shaping the post-occupation environment — that means Iran, Turkey, Syria, Saudi Arabia and Jordan. He wants the consultations to come ahead of disengagement so that “an incipient regional security approach and consensus” can mitigate potential security deterioration. Mowaffaq al-Rubaie, the longtime Iraqi “national security adviser,” is on this panel, so it’ll be interesting to see what he says here. Anyway that leads to Iran.

Iran: Precondition-heavy negotiations amount to starting from the finish line, so it’s a non-starter. Zbig prefers “mutual concessions” to start talks: nuclear enrichment suspensions for sanctions suspensions. Also, don’ threaten Iran if you want anything but Iranian intransigence.

Afghanistan: Avoid the mistakes of the Soviet Union. Namely “they came to Afghanistan with the illusion they could replicate the Soviet Union with the help of Afghan Marxists” with little domestic support, while occupation “increasingly galvanized” opposition “that, in the end, even 160,000 Soviet troops could not crush.” He’s seemingly agnostic on President-elect Barack Obama’s desired troop increase — he says that “some” added troops are needed — emphasizing instead the importance of winning Afghan popular support. If the United States loses that, then game over, and the war is “turning in the direction of the Soviet experience.” The solution is to negotiate “decentralized political agreement[s]” with non-eschatologically-minded Taliban. If possible. He doesn’t know whether it is.

Pakistan: “We have neither the understanding nor the physical means to solve the problems of Afghanistan,” he says. As Afghanistan goes south, so will Pakistan. He doesn’t have really anything to say about Pakistan distinctly. But there you go. It’s a fairly good summary of the pessimistic wing of 2008-vintage progressive thinking. Zbiggie Smalls for mayor.

Neither appointment is particularly unexpected. But as of this morning, at least, Flournoy was at work at the CNAS offices in downtown Washington. Flournoy’s ascendance to the top of the defense-policy world represents quite a victory for the coterie of counterinsurgency thinkers that the think tank employs and champions.

Update: And just as we report this, the Obama transition releases the official appointments. Along with Lynn and Flournoy, Robert Lynn will be Pentagon comptroller and Jeh Johnson will take the crucial role of general counsel, reviewing and determining the legality of many controversial defense initiatives like detentions and interrogations.