Despite the Fed's efforts to moderate the market, housing will almost certainly continue to rise in price.
The big picture: In recent months, the quantity of properties for sale has dropped to new lows, and even if you can win a bidding war for one of them, the cost of a mortgage is rising.
Why it matters: Over the previous two years, housing prices have risen as house-bound Americans take advantage of historically low mortgage rates.
- Housing has been an important source of inflationary pressure for Americans as a result of this boom, making it considerably less affordable for both homeowners and renters.
- According to the National Association of Realtors, the price of an existing home increased from around $275,000 at the end of 2019 to $358,000 in December 2021.
Driving the news: The Fed has recently signaled it would lift interest rates to try to clamp down on inflation. As a result, mortgage rates have risen dramatically.
- According to Freddie Mac, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate increased from 2.98 percent in November to 3.55 percent late last month.
- According to S&P, a rise of this magnitude would add around $200 to the monthly mortgage payment on the median-priced property in the United States.
Higher mortgage rates should, in principle, assist to calm the housing market by making housing somewhat more costly and thereby reducing the pool of possible purchasers.
Yes, but: housing prices, like all market pricing, are a dance between supply and demand in practice. And there is now a scarcity of residences for sale.
- In December, there were just 790,000 existing single-family houses for sale, the lowest amount on record.
What they're saying: According to Jeff Tucker, a senior economist at Zillow, "we truly do see, simply, unbelievably low inventory this winter." "From the perspective of a home shopper, the shelves appear to be rather empty."
The bottom line: For the time being, analysts appear to believe that the mismatch between hordes of would-be buyers and a small number of available homes would lead to higher prices in the future.
In a recent note, Goldman Sachs analysts stated, "We still think demand will eclipse housing supply". “And we continue to expect year-over-year [home price appreciation] of 10.1% for full-year 2022.”
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