Polls: McCain Slipping in Swing States, Arizona

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Gov. Sarah Palin’s sagging favorability and more voter confidence in Sen. Barack Obama’s ability to handle the economy are propelling the Democrat to wider likely voter leads over Republican John McCain in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, according to simultaneous Quinnipiac University Swing State polls released today.

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No one has been elected president since 1960 without taking two of these three largest swing states in the Electoral College. Results from the independent Quinnipiac University polls conducted before and after the debate show:

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*Pennsylvania: Obama ahead 49 – 43 percent pre-debate [+/- 2.9 percent] and 54 – 39 percent post-debate [+/- 3.4 percent].

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Pre-debate surveys ended at 8 p.m. Friday with post-debate surveys Saturday-Monday.

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More than 84 percent of voters in each state say the debate did not change their mind. But by margins of 13 to 17 percent, voters in each state say Obama did a better job in the debate. And by margins of 15 to 27 percent, independent voters in each state say Obama won.

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If you take the Bush (62 million) and Kerry (59 million) vote totals from 2004, assume turnout increases by 20 million additional voters (about what it did in 2004), and assume Obama wins these additional voters 2-to-1, then Obama would best McCain nationally by more than three million voters, 72.4 million to 68.7 million. But if turnout increases by just 10 million, then the numbers become Obama 65.7 million, McCain 65.3 million — a virtual tie. “An Obama victory could very well depend on getting these folks to the polls,” says NBC/WSJ co-pollster Neil Newhouse (R).

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What’s more, we’ve done the math that a 20 percent turnout increase in swing states like Colorado, Florida, Ohio, and Virginia can flip these red states from red to blue. What has to worry the Republicans is that this is a whole generation of new voters who are leaning Democratic. What does that mean for the GOP’s future? It was a whole new generation of young voters who grew up with Reagan who helped bring in a Republican Congress and two terms for George W. Bush. This generation of new voters grew up Clinton, could they be what puts the Democrats on a 20-year power trajectory?

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According to poll director Dr. Bruce Merrill, “McCain still leads in Arizona but the race has tightened during the past month. At one time, it looked like Arizona was solidly Republican, but now has become a state in which the Democrats may choose to actively campaign. Most importantly, the undecided vote is now down to 15 percent. The electorate is highly polarized and there probably won’t be much movement by Republicans and Democrats. McCain maintains his lead in Arizona mainly because of the support of evangelicals and conservative Democrats. As always, who turns out to vote will determine who wins Arizona. The election in Arizona may be decided by whether young people and Hispanics turn out to vote and who the independent voters, who are a growing and important segment of the electorate, decide to support.”