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Boehner Tones Down His Expectations for November

House Minority Leader John Boehner has always been enthusiastic about the GOP’s chances for victory in November. In an April interview on NPR’s Morning Edition, Boehner answered “at least 100″ when asked how many seats were in play. But as the election approaches and the landscape stabilizes, Boehner has toned down that enthusiasm somewhat. Here he is in a recent email to NRCC supporters:

This is the last email you’ll get from us before the NRCC closes the books on the 2nd Quarter of the 2010 Election Year.

So please make an immediate Emergency Contribution of at least $39 – one dollar for every Democrat-held seat we need to win to elect a new Republican Majority.

That’s one dollar for every vote needed to stop the jobs-killing agenda of President Obama and Speaker Pelosi – an investment in our fight to cut government spending, get control of the debt, repeal ObamaCare, and help small business create new jobs.

Thirty-nine seats isn’t a hundred, but it’s a serious gain, and far closer to most projections. The University of Virginia’s Center for Politics projects a 32-seat GOP gain, which is in line with earlier projections from Charlie Cook and Stuart Rothenberg. At this point, Democrats appear better than even money to hold the House; unemployment is high, but it looks like they’ve passed their nadir. Indeed, according to a new Gallup poll, Democratic Party identification remains a few points above Republican Party identification. Granted, that doesn’t tell us much about voter preferences, but it does suggest that Democrats aren’t in the terrible shape they seemed to be in earlier this year.

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