Pushing Back Against the Anti-Incumbency Motif
This idea that voter discontent has left all incumbents vulnerable in November is a reporter’s dream. It’s clean. It’s easy. But is that really what happened yesterday in Pennsylvania, Kentucky and Arkansas?
We reported last night that the picture is much more nuanced. And today, Roll Call’s John McArdle has a good analysis that also questions the blunt notion that voters are going after incumbents this year for the simple sake of their incumbency.
“Before pundits get too caught up in the power of the anti-incumbent sentiment, it’s fair to ask: How much of what happened Tuesday was a result of the old adage that all politics is local?” McArdle asks.
Sen. Arlen Specter (Pa.), for example, was a long-time Republican (with connections to George W. Bush) running for a Democratic seat.
“„Specter’s three decades of service may have been less important in the minds of Democratic primary voters than the fact that he spent 28 of those years as a Republican.
The anti-incumbency theme also dulls a bit considering that Specter was defeated, not by some political outsider, but by a sitting congressman.
In Arkansas, Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) has long been critical of efforts to ease the formation of labor unions — a sentiment seconded (originated?) by WalMart, an Arkansas institution. For that position alone, the unions spent millions of dollars in recent weeks to promote her challenger, Lt. Gov. Bill Halter. “Lincoln’s incumbency,” McArdle notes, “would likely not have been a problem for those labor groups if she had embraced the Employee Free Choice Act.”
And in Kentucky, Secretary of State Trey Grayson was certainly the establishment candidate, having won the endorsement of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.). But challenger Rand Paul had much more going for him than just Tea Party support: “Paul entered the race,” McArdle reminds, “with the support of a national fundraising network built by his father, Rep. Ron Paul (R-Texas), during his presidential campaign.” As Bristol Palin’s speaking fees have proven, name recognition can go a long way.
Finally, the anti-incumbency argument totally falls apart when considering the special election in Western Pennsylvania to fill the seat of the late Rep. Jack Murtha (D). Not only was the victor, Mark Critz, a Democrat, he was also a long-time Murtha aide. So much for kicking out the Washington insider.
That’s not to say that incumbents shouldn’t be concerned about the public’s discontent in the face of a jobs crisis, two wars, record deficit spending, a housing meltdown and a Capitol Hill climate where bipartisan cooperation is all but extinct. They should — as Sen. Robert Bennett (R-Utah) and Rep. Alan Mollohan (D-W.Va.) can surely attest.
But Pennsylvania, Kentucky and Arkansas also reveal that neat and simple themes can also be carried too far.
