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Philadelphia Fed Sees Little Chance of Double Dip, Predicts Job Growth

Today, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia released a survey of 44 economic forecasters. The forecasters — all economists in the private sector — see a smaller chance of a double-dip recession and expect stronger economic growth in the next 18 months. The economists said there is a 7.4 percent risk of a negative quarter, down from an 11.6 percent risk at their last estimate. Compared with previous forecasts, the economists also forecast stronger GDP growth:

Spfq210_real-gdp-growth-2010-480x471.jpg
Spfq210_real-gdp-growth-2010-480x471.jpg

Additionally, they improved their employment outlook:

Spfq210_unemployment-rate-2010-480x471.jpg
Spfq210_unemployment-rate-2010-480x471.jpg

The economists did not move up their inflation expectations, and predict that the economy will start adding jobs next year. The combination of moderate growth and low inflation suggest there is little pressure on the Fed to raise interest rates in the near term.

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