Will Palin Enter the Ranks of Former VP Candidates Who Flamed Out?
The big news from today’s Gallup Poll is President Obama’s weak 44-42 lead over a generic Republican 2012 candidate. It’s the kind of support that Bill Clinton and Ronald Reagan had before they went on to struggle in midterms and win re-election, but it’s clearly bad for Democrats.
Still, I’m more interested — in our current moment of Palin hype — by the numbers for actual Republican candidates. The open-ended Gallup survey (that is, they didn’t prompt anyone for names) found Mitt Romney the most-mentioned possible 2012 candidate at 14 percent, with Palin at 11 percent. But in the last month, we’ve seen polls paid for by conservative (Newsmax) and liberal (Daily Kos) organizations that found Palin doing not a whole lot better in the GOP field. The January Newsmax/Zogby poll found Palin at 22.2 percent to Romney’s 19.4 percent. A Research 2000/Daily Kos poll* found Palin at 16 percent to Romney’s 11 percent.
We’ve got more frequent polling now than at any point in American political history, but we have a few data points to compare this to, vis-a-vis past presidential races. (Thanks to TWI’s Rachel Hartman for digging this up.)