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The Washington Independent

Don’t Pop the Champagne on Those Job Numbers

Democrats are reacting to today’s jobs report with an optimism that’s also notably guarded. (Despite the 0.3 percent drop in unemployment, House Speaker Nancy

Amandeep Coleman
Last updated: Jul 31, 2020 | Feb 05, 2010

Democrats are reacting to today’s jobs report with an optimism that’s also notably guarded. (Despite the 0.3 percent drop in unemployment, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), for example, described the news tepidly as “a welcome step in the right direction.”)

Turns out, there’s probably good reason for the caution. Gus Faucher, director of macroeconomics at Moody’s Economy.com, warned today that the nation’s unemployment rate — 9.7 percent in January — will likely jump back near 11 percent later this year. “We expect it to go back up,” he told TWI, adding that his group estimates that it will take almost five years (the end of 2014) before the figure gets down to 5.5 percent.

It’s not because the nation’s employers are readying a purge. Rather, Faucher explained, the news of recovery will likely stir those who’d stopped looking for jobs to relaunch their search, returning themselves to the pool of unemployed folks that the Labor Department uses to crunch its numbers. Practically, then, the jobs crisis won’t be getting worse, though officially the unemployment rate will increase.

The Democrats, it seems, are cautious enough to recognize that voters likely won’t recognize that distinction in November.

Amandeep Coleman | Amandeep had never known a moment when she wasn't reading or making up stories, having been born into a family of readers. She took out a pencil and notebook during the now-famous blizzard and started writing down one of those stories. It was there that I began my professional life. Her first book was written after several rejections and manuscripts. She is a member of many writers' organizations and has received several accolades from her peers and the publishing industry. The New Yorker recently dubbed her "America's favorite novelist".


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