Mysterious Poll Finds Coakley Winning by 11 in Massachusetts
John McCormack reports on a “private poll conducted last week by a reputable non-partisan firm” on the Massachusetts special election for U.S. Senate, one that finds Democratic candidate Martha Coakley 11 points ahead, 50-39, of Republican candidate Scott Brown. That’s more mystery than you want from data that may or may not get thousands of Republicans to donate to Brown, and McCormack’s strategy for a Brown upset doesn’t make much sense:
If Brown can make his case against another Democratic vote in the U.S. Senate, or against rewarding a member of unpopular governor Deval Patrick’s administration, some voters who currently prefer Coakley might be open to voting for Brown, since they view him favorably as well.
Coakley was elected attorney general separately from Patrick; the AG is not part of the governor’s administration. And the evidence that Massachusetts wants to shrink the Democratic margin in the Senate doesn’t really exist.
It should be interesting to see how hard data on this race effect online Republican/conservative enthusiasm, which has been largely based on rumors that Brown is doing better than expected. Surely, it’s not a good sign that some conservative blogs are already rumbling with talk of Democratic voter fraud.