NJ-Gov Poll: Corzine Stays in the Lead

The final Farleigh-Dickinson/PublicMind poll in New Jersey has Gov. Jon Corzine (D-N.J.) continuing his slow rise back from oblivion and into contention, leading Republican candidate Chris Christie 44 percent to 43 percent among likely voters, with independent candidate Chris Daggett at 6 percent. Corzine also led in the last poll, released on October 6, by an identical margin, but Daggett is up two points; since September, Corzine is up two points and Christie is down four points.

I note all of that because Mike Allen reports this poll under the banner “COULD DEMS GET BLOWN OUT ON TUESDAY?” They could, sure. But the trend is not good for Republicans in New Jersey, who have lost a series of elections this decade after leading in the summer. And this poll has Corzine grabbing only 72 percent of the African-American vote in New Jersey — that’s a vote both he and Christie have gone after, but it’s a vote that historically breaks better for the Democrats. For example, Sen. Frank Lautenberg (D-N.J.) got 87 percent of that vote last year.

I wouldn’t be too surprised by a Christie upset on Tuesday, but the betting right now (literally) is that Democrats, with better turnout and Corzine benefiting from the three-way race, win New Jersey while Republicans win Virginia, and that all eyes turn to the NY-23 special election as the tiebreaker.