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NY-23: Club for Growth Poll Has Hoffman Leading

The fiscally conservative Club for Growth, which has sunk more than $600,000 into the New York 23rd Congressional District special election, is pushing the results of their own new poll (conducted by Basewood Research):

The poll of 300 likely voters, conducted October 24-25, 2009, shows Conservative Doug Hoffman at 31.3 percent, Democrat Bill Owens at 27.0 percent, Republican Dede Scozzafava at 19.7 percent, and 22 percent undecided. The poll’s margin of error is +/- 5.66 percent. No information was provided about any of the candidates prior to the ballot question.

That’s a big margin of error that — if accurate, could put either Owens or Hoffman in the lead. But it rules out Scozzafava, something sure to bolster conservatives’ arguments that she’s fallen out of the race. Remember, it was the Club’s September 24 poll that showed a three-way tie that really ramped up conservative enthusiasm for this race.

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