Democrat Grabs Lead in NY-23 Special Election

October 15, 2009 | Last updated: July 31, 2020

The newest poll from Siena Research Institute has Democratic candidate Bill Owens grabbing the lead in a three-way race to replace former Rep. John McHugh (R-N.Y.). Republican candidate Dede Scozzafava has faded slightly, due in large part to Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman grabbing 27 percent of the self-identified Republican vote. The topline, with trends:

Bill Owens (D) – 33 percent (+5)

Dede Scozzafava (R) – 29 percent (-6)

Doug Hoffman (C) – 23 percent (+7)

Writes pollster Steven Greenberg:

Scozzafava is approaching the point where nearly as many voters have an unfavorable view of her as have a favorable view, and nearly half of voters still don’t know enough about Owens to have an opinion about him.

The election is on Nov. 3.

Here’s the full breakdown from the poll, showing where, and with which voters, Owens and Hoffman have gained ground.

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The poll also has President Barack Obama’s approval rating at a healthy 56 percent in a district he carried by 5 points over Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.). Obama’s approval has actually inched up from 55 percent since the last poll two weeks ago.