So the Crackdown is Working
As best I can piece together this morning, the Iranian regime’s crackdown is halting the momentum of the opposition. Andrew says he can find no sign of today’s planned rally. No idea about the general strike. The New York Times, however, reports:
… at least three Iranian newspapers reported that of 290 members of the Iranian Parliament invited to a victory party for him Wednesday night, only 105 attended, suggesting a deep divide within the political elite over the election and its aftermath.
That won’t overturn an election, but it might be an indicator that the center of gravity for meeting minimal demands of the protesters is with the elites, and not out on the streets. In Qom, ex-president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani is doing … something that we don’t really know about, but reportedly (well, much-speculated-ly) he’s attempting to convince the Assembly of Experts to dislodge Supreme Leader Ali Khamanei. I don’t know if this bit of elite-based speculation is well-grounded. But it looks like there needs to be some renewed exogenous event to re-spark a mass opposition movement. Mir Hussein Moussavi told supporters that he’s not backing down, but the regime has little incentive to compromise if it can break up the demonstrations through violence and withstand elite challenges.