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How Blue are the House GOP Leaders’ Districts?How Blue are the House GOP Leaders’ Districts? | The Washington Independent

The Nate Silvers-in-training at Swing State Project have completed their crowd-sourced effort to break down how many votes President Obama and Sen. John McCain got in all 535 congressional districts in 2008. Here’s a quick rundown of what percentage of voters went for Obama in the home bases of the GOP’s House leadership. The number in parentheses is the difference between Obama’s vote and the 2004 vote for John Kerry.

**Minority Leader John Boehner, Ohio-08 – 38 percent (+3) Western Ohio is still safe Republican territory—more Republican now than former Majority Leader Tom DeLay’s old Texas seat (41 percent for Obama) and former Speaker Dennis Hastert’s old Illinois seat (55 percent for Obama).

Minority Whip Eric Cantor, Virginia-07 – 46 percent (+8) There are signs that the Virginia GOP is recovering after a decade in decline, but this central part of the state is competitive enough

**Conference Chairman Mike Pence, Indiana-06 – 46 percent (+11) **The quintessential middle American district got a lot bluer in 2008, and it’s had no impact whatsoever on Pence, who won a new leadership role and has run all over the airwaves to attack the Democratic agenda.

**Policy Committee Chairman Thaddeus McCotter, Michigan-11 – 54 percent (+7)

** Democrats are kicking themselves for not making a real run at this district in the largely white western suburbs of Detroit — Reagan Democrat country that has become solidly blue. McCotter, who carved out this district for himself when he was a state senator, has responded to the new climate with occasional strategic voting (he supported this year’s SCHIP bill) and a higher public presence in venues such as Fox News’s Red Eye.

**Chief Deputy Minority Whip Kevin McCarthy, California-22 – 38 percent (+7) There shouldn’t be any reason for a Republican from Bakersfield to sweat re-election, even if McCain’s meltdown in California — the worst performance by a Republican presidential candidate since Alf Landon in 1936—made this area a little more blue.

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