Poll: McCain’s Lead in Arizona Shrinking
Via Marc Ambinder, according to a new poll of residents of Arizona’s Maricopa County -- the state’s most populous and home to eight of its 10 largest cities --
Via Marc Ambinder, according to a new poll of residents of Arizona’s Maricopa County — the state’s most populous and home to eight of its 10 largest cities — Sen. John McCain’s once sizable lead in his home state has rapidly faded. The survey, conducted by the Phoenix-based Behavior Research Center, found McCain now leads Sen. Barack Obama 43 percent to 38 percent, with a margin of error of five percent. The survey notes that McCain led by 15 points in May. The poll also found independent voters were evenly split — with 35 percent for McCain and 34 percent for Obama and 27 percent uncommitted. From the Behavior Research Center’s report:
“„McCain’s narrowing lead traces not to any sudden up-swelling in support for Obama, whose support has hovered around 38 percent for the past year and remains at that level today. Rather, it traces to a decline in support of McCain, especially among men, registered Independents and Latinos. Simultaneously, the proportion of voters who are uncommitted rose to 16 percent from only nine this May and Ralph Nader drew a small but important three percent, mostly from McCain.
“„
“„The most obvious explanation for the tightening up of the race is that for the first time in any McCain race we can recollect, the usual 20 to 30 percent of Democrats who defect to McCain are now staying home. Today, only nine percent of Democrats are crossing over to McCain while 11 percent of Republicans are crossing over to Obama.
A couple of notes: Though the survey has a high margin of error, due to it’s relatively small sample size of 401 participants — and it is not representative of all of Arizona — the results are telling. Maricopa County is a GOP stronghold — and McCain’s long-time home. Just the fact that he is not bludgeoning Obama here should be enough to alarm the McCain campaign. But his lead has evaporated by 10 points since Obama effectively clenched the Democratic nomination — this should give his Southwest staff night terrors. In his post, Ambinder includes a clip from a Phoenix newscast that raises the possibility that the state may be in play in November. It seems that every week brings new evidence this may be the case.
Related
MA-Sen: 150 Conservative Bloggers Fan Out, Looking for Scandals
BOSTON -- The mysterious Election Journal blog, which first released the infamous 2008 video of two bumbling New Black Panther Party members waving nightsticks
MA-Sen: 66 to 19
BOSTON -- That, via Alex Isenstadt and Josh Kraushaar, is the number that defined the Massachusetts Senate race more than anything else. From the primary
MA-Sen: A Text Message From Scott Brown
BOSTON -- Having signed up for Scott Brown’s text message service for election day, I just got this text: Are you about to have lunch? It’s a great time to
MA-Sen: Loyal Democrats Grouse About Coakley
BOSTON -- A little while after noon, a steady crowd of Democratic voters streamed into the Cathedral High School Gymnasium to cast votes for their party’s
MA-Sen: Brown Wins
BOSTON -- At 9:20, the first rumors of Scott Brown’s victory in the Massachusetts Senate race started to work around the room. A moment later, Doug Flutie
MA-Sen Photos: ‘Paint the Town Red! Croakley’s Dead!’
Below are some photos of yesterday’s People’s Rally in Worcester, the rally that Brown held to counter-program the Obama rally in Boston. The crush of
MA-Sen: Out-of-Staters for Brown
BOSTON -- A surprising discovery at yesterday’s People’s Rally in Worcester was just how many people had traveled into the state to assist, in whatever way,
Menendez, Lautenberg to Continue BP-Lockerbie Investigation
Sens. Robert Menendez and Frank Lautenberg, both New Jersey Democrats, will continue to seek details about BP’s alleged involvement in the release last year of
Net Investors Bullish on Palin’s Prospects for Staying on Ticket
Just for fun, the Internet prediction Website Intrade has opened a contract on whether Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin will be withdrawn as McCain’s running mate.
No Experience Necessary
Gov. Sarah Palin’s a middle-class hockey mom, but does that really qualify her to be vice president?