Is McCain Taking Florida For Granted?
The Wall Street Journal reports that while Sen. Barack Obama is spending more money on advertising in Florida than any other state, Sen. John McCain has yet to air a single TV ad. By comparison, Obama has aired nearly 10,000 commercials. From The Journal:
“„The Obama campaign has spent about $6.5 million on TV advertising in Florida, according to the Campaign Media Analysis Group, a unit of media tracker TNS Media Intelligence. In part, the spending can be attributed to the Democrat’s late start there. He refrained from campaigning in Florida during the primary season after the Democratic Party penalized the state for holding its primary early.
“„A spokesman for Sen. McCain declined to discuss why the campaign hasn’t run TV ads in Florida, but said the Republican is investing heavily in the state and is doing well. "We’ve got offices across the state and a very robust operation," said Jeff Sadosky. "That’s a state where we won a primary."
The Journal quotes one Republican strategist who says all of Obama’s advertising efforts are having little effect on statewide polls.
“„Some observers note that the Obama ad push in the state doesn’t seem to be damaging Sen. McCain’s standing in local polls. "It’s been a totally one-sided affair but it hasn’t bent the needle much," said [Orlando-based Republican Strategist John] Sowinski.
But a quick look at RealClearPolitics’ Florida polling page tells a different story. An April Rasmussen survey of Florida voters — before Obama effectively clinched the Democratic nomination — found McCain held a 15-point lead in a head-to-head match-up with Obama. That lead shrank to eight percentage points by late-June — after Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton dropped out of the race. The most recent Rasmussen poll, released July 22, has Obama up by one point — well within the 4.5-point margin of error — but still a 16-point shift in three months.
Similarly, a Quinnipiac University poll from late-March found McCain with a nine-point lead over the presumed Democratic nominee in the Sunshine State. In Quinnipiac’s most recent survey, from late-July, Obama led by 2 percentage points, also within the 2.8 point margin of error — though Obama led McCain by as much as four points in mid-June.
Florida — which President George W. Bush carried by five points in 2004 — is a must-win state for McCain. If, in November, Obama can hold all of the states Kerry won in 2004 and shifts Florida’s 27 electoral votes to his column, then he wins. The election-handicapping Website FiveThirtyEight.com still gives McCain a 73 percent chance of winning the state in November, but the quickness with which Obama was able to close in on McCain in these polls should probably give the McCain campaign second thoughts about its decision to thus far cede the airwaves to Obama.
