Ah, strategic myopia. Yesterday, Ted Gistaro, a top intelligence analyst, gave a speech to the Washington Institute about Al Qaeda’s intent and capability to
“„First, Al Qaeda has strengthened its safe haven in Pakistan’s Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) by deepening its alliances with Pakistani militants and pushing many elements of Pakistani government authority from the area. It now has many of the operational and organizational advantages it once enjoyed across the border in Afghanistan, albeit on a smaller and less secure scale.
“„Second, despite some significant losses, Al Qaeda has replenished its bench of skilled mid-level lieutenants capable of directing its global operations. These losses collectively represent the most serious blow to Al Qaeda’s leadership since 2005.
“„While it sometimes can take several months to replace these individuals, Al Qaeda has developed succession plans, can reshuffle leadership responsibilities, and promote younger commanders with years of battlefield experience to senior positions. The leaders’ collocation in the FATA allows them to manage the organization collaboratively, helping facilitate the replacement of key figures.
“„Over the past year, some hardline religious leaders and extremists who once had significant influence with Al Qaeda have publicly criticized it, including Sayyid Imam Abd al-Aziz al- Sharif, a jailed Egyptian terrorist who once saved bin Laden’s life, and Saudi cleric Sheikh Salman al-Awdah, whom bin Laden credits as a leading ideological influence.
“„Al Qaeda senior leaders in 2008 have devoted nearly half their airtime to defending the group’s legitimacy. This defensive tone continues a trend observed since at least last summer and reflects concern over allegations by militant leaders and religious scholars that Al Qaeda and its affiliates have violated the Islamic laws of war, particularly in Iraq and North Africa.