New poll shows defeat looming for Ohio’s anti-collective-bargaining law

A new poll (PDF) by Public Policy Polling shows voter opinion of Ohio’s anti-collective-bargaining law Senate Bill 5 remains extremely unfavorable. According to the poll, voters are ready to nix State Issue 2, the veto referendum on the law that goes before voters on Nov. 8, 59 percent to 36 percent.

Self-described ideological “moderates,” plan to reject the law 76 percent to 19 percent, while independents are more closely divided over it, 54 percent to 39 percent.

The poll’s conductors note public sentiment has changed little since they conducted their first survey (PDF) on the issue back in March.

While an overwhelming 86 percent of Democrats are united against the law, the numbers show only 66 percent of self-identified Republicans support the law, Ohio Governor John Kasich’s signature work since his election in 2010.

The poll also shows voters are likely to pass Issue 3, which has been overshadowed by Issue 2 in the media, with very few television spots devoted to the constitutional amendment that would attempt to block in Ohio the individual mandate to have health insurance, as required by the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act. The tea party-led effort to block the contentious element of the law began with last year’s election, but the all-volunteer petition drive did not gather enough signatures until this year. Issue 3 would also roll back many statutory Ohio laws, some of which would affect school immunizations and child-support battles. According to the poll, however, 49 percent of Ohioans support the amendment.

The poll also suggests Kasich is among the least popular governors in the country right now, his job considered favorable to only 33 percent of voters. Apparently, Ohio is also feeling considerable buyer’s remorse, as ousted former governor Ted Strickland beats Kasich in a hypothetical reelection 55 percent to 37 percent. Kasich, just a few days past the anniversary of his election, has another three years to recoup voters’ lost confidence; he isn’t up for reelection until 2014.

The poll, conducted by automated “robocall” surveyors, addressed 1,022 “likely voters” from Nov. 4 to Nov. 6; its margin of error is plus or minus 3.1 percent.