How the Economy Killed McCain
Sometimes, a picture –or graph– really does say a thousand words.
The State of the Union plotted the S&P 500 and Sen. John McCain’s performance in the Gallup daily tracking poll, “with a two-day lag to let the market results filter through…”
Image has not been found. URL: http://stateoftheunion.files.wordpress.com/2008/10/marketsvsmccain1.jpg
McCain’s floor hovers around 40 percent, which accounts for the divergence of the Gallup and S&P numbers. But the correlation between the two data sets is a robust 0.77 [1.0 being a perfect correlation].
As Pollster’s Steve Lombardo says, “The economic situation has virtually ended John McCain’s presidential aspirations, and no amount of tactical maneuvering in the final 29 days is likely to change that equation.”
It’s really no wonder that the McCain campaign would prefer to talk about literally anything other than the economy.
However, if the financial crisis is dominating the concerns of Americans — and it is expected to remain in the headlines through the election — it appears McCain will have to quickly figure out a way to start talking about the economy effectively, if he wants to win the election.
(Via Politico’s Ben Smith)