A pair of new polls reveal the McCain campaign has some major problems emerging in the typically red state of Virginia. The first poll, from Suffolk University,
A pair of new polls reveal the McCain campaign has some major problems emerging in the typically red state of Virginia. The first poll, from Suffolk University, found Sen. Barack Obama holding a whopping 12-percentage point lead over Sen. John McCain in the commonwealth. From The Boston Globe:
Obama leads McCain 51 percent to 39 percent among likely voters, the Suffolk University poll found, echoing other recent polls that show the Democrat surging in battleground states.
“Barack Obama has built a coalition of suburban DC-area progressives from the north, African-American voters from the south, and young voters statewide,” David Paleologos, director of the Political Research Center at Suffolk University in Boston, said in a statement. “That broad-based support suggests a 44-year Republican run in the Old Dominion State, dating back to Lyndon Johnson’s victory in 1964, is in jeopardy.”
The poll suggests that last Thursday’s vice presidential debate helped the Democratic ticket. Three-fourths of likely voters watched the debate, which tied for the second most-watched debate ever, and 46 percent said Democrat Joe Biden bested Republican Sarah Palin, while 26 percent said Palin won and 20 percent said neither did. One-third of respondents said the debate made them more likely to vote Obama, while 18 percent said they were more likely to support McCain, and 47 percent said the debate didn’t affect their decision…
The poll was conducted Friday through Sunday and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points, Suffolk said.
At first glimpse, this poll seems to be what the McCain campaign likes to refer to as an “outlier.” Surely, the race must be much closer.
Then along comes this SurveyUSA poll of Virginians, which found Obama leading McCain in the state by a margin of 53 percent to 43 percent. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percent.
According to SurveyUSA, Obama has made remarkable gains among white men, turning a 10-point deficit just after the Republican National Convention into an 11-point lead. That’s a 21-point reversal.
McCain no longer leads in any region of the state. In Northeastern VA, which includes the DC suburbs, Obama leads by 24 points. In Central Virginia, home of the Confederate White House, the Museum of the Confederacy and Appomattox, Obama today leads by 8. In Southeastern Virginia, Obama leads by 11. In the Shenandoah, where John McCain led by 24 points one month ago, Obama and McCain today tie.
Critics will point out that this was a poll of Virginia residents and not limited to likely voters. However, this is the third major survey in the past week to place Obama’s lead at nine percentage points or more in the state.
According to RealClearPolitics, Obama leads by an average of 4.9 points in recent major polls. The electoral handicapping Website FiveThirtyEight.com now gives Obama an 81 percent chance of winning Virginia — which doesn’t reflect these new polls, and that figure is likely to increase.
The McCain campaign is well aware that a loss in Virginia almost certainly indicates that it’s lights out for this election. It’s not surprising, then, that McCain and Gov. Sarah Palin will appear at two rallies in downstate Virginia next week — in Virginia Beach and Richmond.
$1.89 billion given to states to fight HIV
The federal government Monday announced more than $1.89 billion in funding to states to fight the HIV epidemic with access to care and with more cash for the failing AIDS Drug Assistance Program. According to an HHS press release , $813 million of that money will go directly to the ADAP programming. An additional $8,386,340 will be issued as a supplement to 36 states and territories currently facing a litany of unmet needs and access issues.
Army Data Shows Constraints on Troop Increase Potential
If President Obama orders an additional 30,000 to 40,000 troops to Afghanistan, he will be deploying practically every available U.S. Army brigade to war, leaving few units in reserve in case of an unforeseen emergency and further stressing a force that has seen repeated combat deployments since 2002.
1. Brian Schweitzer
As governor of Montana, Schweitzer doesn’t represent one of the most highly populated, high-profile electoral states in the country. But this
$1.3 Million for Brown
The GOP’s candidate in the Massachusetts special election raised more than one million dollars -- double the goal -- in a 24-hour moneybomb on the Ron Paul
$1.3 trillion in federal spending unaccounted for, report finds
Despite calls for independent bodies to keep government accountable, the Sunlight Foundation’s most recent Clearspending report has found the federal
#1 in Conspiracy Theories
Andrew Young’s tell-all biography of John Edwards, hitting shelves next week, is surging in one Amazon.com category in particular. #1 in Conspiracy
1 Brigade and 1 Battalion
ISTANBUL – It’s 10 p.m. in the lowest level of the Istanbul airport. In 20 minutes I’ll be allowed to board my plane to Kabul, bringing me to the
$1 Million for Toomey
Pat Toomey, the former Club for Growth president and leading Republican candidate in Pennsylvania’s 2010 Senate race, has announced a $1 million haul in the
1. Lindsey Graham
Sen. Graham (R-S.C.) is typically regarded as a reliable vote for his party, but he took the bold step of breaking with his fellow Republicans to join Kerry
Bachmann uncomfortable over earmarks ban
Republicans appear to have boxed themselves into a corner with their portrayal of earmarks as wasteful spending, as many of them have backed a moratorium on
Troubled mine holds hope for U.S. rare earth industry
China currently controls 97 percent of the world’s rare earth production. The Mountain Pass Mine could change that -- if it can overcome serious environmental concerns.