Here, meanwhile, is an example of the data not quite matching the spin.

New Jersey is not part of D.C., of course.

Here’s the whole survey.

One tidbit about 60 Plus, which has a curious role in the conservative movement’s firmament: it played a small part in this year’s Virginia elections. Republican power-lawyer Barbara Comstock won a tight delegate race in northern Virginia, swept in by Republican gubernatorial candidate Bob McDonnell’s landslide. 60 Plus arranged a robocall for Comstock from Pat Boone, the group’s national spokesman.

President Obama promised jobs during his campaign for president, and the elections in Virginia and New Jersey on Tuesday were a clear referendum on his failure to deliver on this promise.

Bit of a change from Tuesday, when Steele said the election was not “so much a referendum on the president.” Clearly, the new spin is the wiser spin, even if the rhetoric about Obama having the power to “create jobs” rings hollow to a conservative.

“Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi are two of the most unpopular people in American politics,” said Gary Bauer, who endorsed Hoffman early on. “I think they can become potent symbols in the 2010 election. At the end of the day, however, I think it’s important for Republicans not to just say ’send a message to Nancy Pelosi’ or ’send a message to Harry Reid,’ but rather to remind people how a Republican Congress will be different than what they’re seeing right now.”

Nonetheless, as Brian Beutler points out, the immediate impact of the House victories is that the Democratic conference in the House will rise from 256 to 258. That gives the party more breathing room on a health care vote. And it’s hard to underscore just how much Republicans were hoping that a Hoffman victory, or a more long-shot victory by David Harmer in California, would strike fear into conservative Democrats worried about their own re-elections. Republicans have been messaging today about Governor-elect Bob McDonnell’s landslide margins in vulnerable Virginia House seats won by Democrats last year, but Democrats generally understand that McDonnell was the beneficiary of a bumbling Democratic campaign against him. The Democratic House victories give the party some breathing room.

He praised the volunteer efforts to get Bob McDonnell and Chris Christie elected as governors in Virginia and New Jersey, respectively, saying, “Our folks are fired up.” Yet he expressed some misgivings about the process that led to Democrat Bill Owens’ victory in New York’s 23rd Congressional District.

“There should have been, in New York 23, a primary process,” he said.

I asked him about the view among some conservatives that the NY-23 result was a victory, since it emboldened the conservative wing of the Republican party.

“I don’t see a victory in losing seats,” he responded, adding, “Winning’s a lot sweeter, and if you don’t think last night was sweet, you need to see a doctor.”

He also disputed the notion that the results were a referendum on President Obama, saying, “I don’t think this is so much a referendum on the president. I think it’s a checkpoint on the policies.”

We’ll have video of the event shortly.

Update: Watch video of the Michael Steele press conference here.

“I want to send my congratulations to Bob, Maureen and their family. Bob ran a positive campaign based on the conservative principles of fiscal responsibility and low taxes. Virginians embraced his conservative message, rejecting more taxes, card-check and spending that would hurt economic growth and job creation. I’m especially proud of the RGA’s historic role in supporting Bob’s effort, and look forward to working with the Governor-Elect next year.”

I talked briefly to Rob Ryan, Hoffman’s spokesman, who wasn’t making any predictions about the race–”if it’s a blowout either way, we’ll know soon”–but was already giving subtle hints of optimism.

“Let’s be honest,” he said. “Doug rode the 50-foot wave, just like last year Obama rode the 50-foot wave.”

Mr. McDonnell defeated the Democratic candidate, R. Creigh Deeds, an 18-year state senator from rural Bath County in western Virginia.

Republicans cited the victory as a repudiation of the Obama administration and the national Democratic Party’s agenda, especially that of outgoing Gov. Tim Kaine, who serves as the chairman of the Democratic National Committee.

Nonetheless, exit polls conducted by Edison Research on Tuesday showed that support for Mr. Obama had changed little in the state since his victory here in 2008. The polls suggested that many of Mr. Obama’s voters stayed home on Tuesday, allowing Mr. McDonnell to win on strong support among white men and independents and among voters who say they are very worried about the direction of the nation’s economy.

Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Steele dances in the end zone with this statement:

“Tonight, Republicans made history in Virginia.  In a state that had been in the Democrats’ column after the 2008 election – and in DNC Chairman Tim Kaine’s own backyard – Republicans swept all three top state offices in Virginia for the first time since 1997.  These significant victories speak to the fantastic campaigns run by Republicans across the Commonwealth and the voters’ clear rejection of liberal tax and spend policies that Washington Democrats are trying to force on Americans.

“Governor-elect Bob McDonnell’s common-sense conservative message of less spending, lower taxes and more responsible government clearly resonated with voters. His opposition to the Democrats’ plans for higher taxes, government-run health care and a job-killing ‘cap and trade’ bill was rewarded by Virginia voters with a victory tonight. [...]

“The Republican Party’s overwhelming victory in Virginia is a blow to President Obama and the Democrat Party.  It sends a clear signal that voters have had enough of the president’s liberal agenda.  The Republican Party and our grassroots supporters have renewed strength in Virginia, and I look forward to working with Governor-elect McDonnell and Republicans across the state to build on our momentum.”

Doug Hoffman, Bob McDonnell and Chris Christie

WATERTOWN, N.Y. — Conservatives declared victory in the 2009 off-year elections four days before voters went the polls. With the withdrawal of Dede Scozzafava, the embattled moderate Republican candidate, from the special election in New York’s 23rd Congressional District, activists and organizers are toasting a shocking victory over the Republican establishment.

Image by: Matt Mahurin

The hero of the moment is Doug Hoffman, the first-time candidate of the Conservative Party who effectively forced Scozzafava out of the race after national conservative groups like the Club for Growth and the Susan B. Anthony List showered his campaign with cash and staffed it with volunteers. On Sunday night, campaign strategists reacted to Scozzafava’s endorsement of Bill Owens, the Democratic candidate, by projecting confidence and dismissing the efforts Democrats made to win her over. Hoffman’s campaign was cheered by a survey from the North Carolina-based Public Policy Polling showing the candidate easily consolidating Scozzafava’s support. It did not push back against reports that the candidate failed to win over Scozzafava for an endorsement.

“I didn’t reach out to her,” said Hoffman’s spokesman Rob Ryan. “From day one, I haven’t had a thought about Dede Scozzafava unless it was about getting her out of this race.”

Still, conservative activists and Republican strategists told TWI that they were watching the results from NY-23 as part of a picture with at least three other high-profile elections on Tuesday. They are also looking to, and preparing to spin, an all-but-certain victory in Virginia’s statewide races, a possible victory in New Jersey’s gubernatorial election, and Maine ballot measures on tax rates and gay marriage.

In even the most disappointing scenario, where Republicans only gain ground in Virginia, they are getting ready to argue that voters are growing cold on the Democratic agenda and Barack Obama’s vaunted brand. (None of of the conservatives who spoke to TWI mentioned the mayoral election in Atlanta, where Mary Norwood, a onetime Republican activist, is expected to win the first round of voting and head to a runoff. If elected, Norwood would be the first white mayor of Atlanta since Richard Nixon’s presidency.)

“After the 2008 election, [there] was a lot of analysis that this country had made a big seismic shift to left of center,” said Gary Bauer, the president of American Values, and one of the first conservative organizers to endorse Hoffman. “I don’t think anything is going to happen to confirm that analysis. It’s still a right of center country. The ‘blame Bush’ card is getting old.”

Last week, the Los Angeles Times characterized the White House’s optimal election day scenario as a loss for Virginia gubernatorial candidate Deeds, a win for Gov. Jon Corzine (D-N.J.), and a “tie-breaker” Democratic win in NY-23. Conservatives, while optimistic about sweeping every one of these races, gave TWI some reasons why losses in New York, New Jersey and Maine would not necessarily be big defeats for the movement. But all suggested that the night would start out with unalloyed good news for the GOP: sweeping victories in Virginia. Polls in the commonwealth close at 7 p.m., and former Attorney General Robert McDonnell, the GOP’s candidate, leads Deeds by double-digit margins.

“This is a state that Democrats said was going blue, or least purple,” said Grover Norquist, the president of Americans for Tax Reform. “How do they explain it if they lose?”

Republicans are doing what they can to refocus on attention to what, according to polls, could be a Republican landslide. It would happen in a state that the Obama-Biden ticket carried by six points. Last week, RNC Chairman Michael Steele trekked across the Potomac and into Virginia for rallies with the GOP ticket. Victories in the races for governor, lieutenant governor, and attorney general on Tuesday would mark only the second time in history–the first was 1997–when Republicans grabbed control of all three of Virginia’s statewide offices.

Republicans are optimistic, too, about a handful Republican candidates winning back state legislative seats that had fallen to the Democrats over the past few election cycles. One of those candidates, Barbara Comstock, is a powerful Republican lawyer running for a seat in Virginia’s House of Delegates who worked for Mitt Romney’s presidential campaign and the defense teams of both I. Lewis “Scooter” Libby and Tom DeLay. In the summer, her partisan image was seen as a possible impediment to victory. Today, conservatives are hopeful that she’ll be swept in on McDonnell’s coattails.

There is less conservative optimism about New Jersey. It’s a Democratic-leaning state that’s played host to many Republican candidates who lost early poll leads as the electorate moved back to the majority party. Chris Christie, the GOP standard-bearer, has watched a once-commanding lead dwindle into a tie with Corzine. President Obama has repeatedly stumped for Corzine, hitting two of New Jersey’s vote-rich but poor cities in a Sunday campaign swing.

If Christie loses, Republicans have multiple scapegoats at the ready. One is Chris Daggett, a liberal Republican who ran as an independent and trained most of his fire on the GOP candidate. The other, to conservatives, would be Christie himself. He beat Americans for Prosperity state chairman Steve Lonegan in a surprisingly tough summer primary, taking hits from Lonegan for allegedly being too far to the left. At AFP’s “Defending the American Dream” summit held last month in northern Virginia, Lonegan told TWI that Christie was failing to give conservatives a reason to come out and vote. This week, Lonegan has joined Christie on the campaign trail to fire up conservative voters, but this pessimistic spin is at the ready if Corzine pulls out a win.

“If Christie is to win in New Jersey,” said Citizens United President and conservative activist David Bossie, “it would be a good day for America. It would be a rebuke of the establishment that is in complete control of New Jersey politics. But Christie is not really a leading conservative. He’s a good Republican, and he’d do a good job, and his election would be a rebuke to Barack Obama.”

Polls in New Jersey and in Maine close at 8 p.m., and few expect the results for either state to be announced quickly. And polls close at 11 p.m. ET in a special election for Congress in CA-10, a northern California district that Democrats have easily held in the past. Few conservatives give Republican candidate David Harmer a chance there, as Lt. Gov. John Garamendi (D-Calif.), who’s won elections in the state for decades, holds strong leads in polls of the early and absentee voters who make up more than half of California’s electorate. Inevitably, the election will be seen in the context of what happens in NY-23–where polls close at 9 p.m., and where counting could go on for hours. Some Hoffman backers believe that Mike Huckabee, one of few prominent Harmer supporters, endorsed the candidate before he endorsed Hoffman because of Huckabee’s long-standing feud with the Club for Growth.

Heading into Tuesday, most conservatives and Republicans professed optimism about what will happen at the polls. But an alternative take has already been written. Michael Barone, the editor of the Almanac of American Politics a conservative-leaning columnist, told TWI that it would be practically impossible for Democrats to claim significant wins even if they succeed in the White House’s “tiebreaker” scenario.

“If Corzine and Owens win,” said Barone, “they both will have gotten well under Obama’s percentages in those constituencies.”