Assessing the Bradley Effect

Throughout this election cycle, many Democrats have assumed that Sen. Barack Obama must take a lead of more than one or two percentage points in the polls into Election Day because his actual numbers will get knocked down a notch by the so-called Bradley Effect — the idea that More…

The Mis-Reading of the ‘Bradley Effect’

Political pundits are hyperventilating over the possibility that Sen. Barack Obama’s lead in presidential polls is overstated and that the so-called “Bradley effect” — named for the late Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley — could kick in and upend predictions.

In 1982, Bradley, the Democratic gubernatorial nominee in California, had More…