TAI analyzed statistics from each state the super committee members represent to see how dependent, on average, the states’ residents, and their women, are on some of the entitlement programs they are proposing to cut. TAI predominantly relied on state-by-state information compiled by the National Women’s Law Center.

(Read more about how the current super committee plans would impact women.)

Sen. Patty Murray (D-Washington), committee co-chair:

Sen. Patty Murray (Wikimedia Commons)

• One in six Washington residents (PDF) -– 1,089,900 people -– received disability, survivor and/or retirement benefits from Social Security in 2010.
• Social Security reduced the poverty rate for women 65 and older from 43 percent to 10 percent and lifted 14,000 children out of poverty.
• In 2008, 307,300 non-elderly women relied on Medicaid, some for pregnancy assistance or due to permanent disability. In addition, 60,600 non-elderly women were on Medicaid because not all of their health-care services were covered by Medicare.
• About 839,000 people in Washington receive benefits from Medicare; 54 percent of them are women.
• In 2009, Child Care and Development Block Grant (CCDBG) program –- which helps low-income working families afford child care -– served an average of 27,100 Washington families (PDF) with 46,400 children each month.
• In 2009, Head Start and Early Head Start preschool programs -– which provide grants for child development and early-education programs for low-income children -– served 11,300 young children in Washington.
• In 2010, 474,700 Washington households used the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), commonly referred to as food stamps.
• Between 2007 (PDF) (before the recession began) and 2010 (PDF), unemployment for Washington women has increased from 4.4 percent to 8.9 percent.

Sen. Max Baucus (Wikimedia Commons)

• One in five Montana residents (PDF) -– 192,700 people -– received Social Security benefits in 2010.
• Social Security reduced the poverty rate for women 65 and older from 60 percent to 6 percent and lifted 1,000 children out of poverty.
• In 2008, about 25,700 non-elderly women and 7,200 elderly women in Montana relied on Medicaid.
• Approximately 177,000 individuals in Montana use Medicare; 53 percent of them women.
• In 2009, the CCDBG served approximately 2,400 Montana families (PDF), with 4,000 children, each month.
• In 2009, Head Start and Early Head Start preschool programs served 2,900 Montana children.
• In 2010, 51,100 Montana households were beneficiaries of the SNAP program.
• Between 2007 and 2010, unemployment for women in Montana (PDF) increased from 3.4 percent to 5.9 percent.

Sen. John Kerry (Wikimedia Commons)

• One in six Massachusetts residents (PDF) -– 1,140,800 people -– received Social Security benefits in 2010
• Social Security reduced the poverty rate for women 65 and older from 46 percent to 11 percent and lifted 21,000 children out of poverty.
• In 2008, about 494,500 non-elderly women and 111,800 elderly women in Massachusetts were on Medicaid.
• Approximately 1,094,000 individuals in Massachusetts use Medicare; 53 percent of them are women.
• In 2009, the CCDBG served approximately 18,300 Massachusetts families (PDF), with 24,800 children, each month.
• In 2009, Head Start and Early Head Start preschool programs served 12,700 young children in Massachusetts.
• In 2010, 407,300 Massachusetts households were beneficiaries of the SNAP program.
• Between 2007 and 2010, unemployment for women in Massachusetts (PDF) increased from 4.1 percent to 7.5 percent.

Rep. James Clyburn (Wikimedia Commons)

• One in five South Carolina residents (PDF) -– 924,700  people -– received Social Security benefits in 2010.
• Social Security reduced the poverty rate for women 65 and older from 55 percent to 14 percent and lifted 25,000 children out of poverty.
• In 2008, about 244,200 non-elderly women and 61,700 elderly women in South Carolina were on Medicaid.
• Approximately 785,000 individuals in South Carolina use Medicare; 55 percent of them are women.
• In 2009, the CCDBG served approximately 11,800 South Carolina families (PDF), with 20,400 children, each month.
• In 2009, Head Start and Early Head Start preschool programs served 12,200 young children in South Carolina.
• In 2010, 359,500 South Carolina households were beneficiaries of the SNAP program.
• Between 2007 and 2010, unemployment for women in South Carolina (PDF) increased from 6 percent to 9.6 percent.

Rep. Xavier Becerra (Wikimedia Commons)

• One in eight California residents (PDF) -– 4,979,100 people -– received Social Security benefits in 2010.
• Social Security reduced the poverty rate for women 65 and older from 42 percent to 11 percent and lifted 100,000 children out of poverty.
• In 2008, about 3,969,600 non-elderly women and 619,600 elderly women in California were on Medicaid.
• Approximately 4,421,000 individuals in California use Medicare; 56 percent of them are women.
• In 2009, the CCDBG served approximately 68,200 California families (PDF), with 106,900 children, each month.
• In 2009, Head Start and Early Head Start preschool programs served 97,900 young children in California.
•  In 2010, 1,391,400 California households were beneficiaries of the SNAP program.
• Between 2007 and 2010, unemployment for women in California (PDF) increased from 5.2 percent to 11.3 percent.

Rep. Chris Van Hollen (Wikimedia Commons)

• One in seven Maryland residents (PDF) -– 850,400 people -– received Social Security benefits in 2010.
• Social Security reduced the poverty rate for women 65 and older from 39 percent to 10 percent and lifted 11,000 children out of poverty.
• In 2008, about 217,100 non-elderly women and 52,700 elderly women in Maryland were on Medicaid.
• Approximately 703,000 individuals in Maryland use Medicare; 59 percent of them are women.
• In 2009, the CCDBG served approximately 14,400 Maryland families (PDF), with 24,400 children, each month.
• In 2009, Head Start and Early Head Start preschool programs served 10,300 young children in Maryland.
• In 2010, 265,800 Maryland households were beneficiaries of the SNAP program.
• Between 2007 and 2010, unemployment for women (PDF) in Maryland increased from 3.9 percent to 7.4 percent.

Rep. Jeb Hensarling (Wikimedia Commons)

• One in seven Texas residents (PDF) -– 3,440,400 people -– received Social Security benefits in 2010.
• Social Security reduced the poverty rate for women 65 and older from 48 percent to 15 percent and lifted 102,000 children out of poverty.
• In 2008, about 791,800 non-elderly women and 295,600 elderly women in Texas were on Medicaid.
• Approximately 2,730,000 individuals in Texas use Medicare; 55 percent of them are women.
• In 2009, the CCDBG served approximately 66,200 Texas families (PDF), with 121,600 children, each month.
• In 2009, Head Start and Early Head Start preschool programs served 67,600 young children in Texas.
•  In 2010, 1,407,100 Texas households were beneficiaries of the SNAP program.
• Between 2007 and 2010, unemployment for women in Texas (PDF) increased from 4.8 percent to 7.9 percent.

Rep. Dave Camp (Wikimedia Commons)

Reps. Dave Camp(R-Mich.) and

Rep. Fred Upton (Wikimedia Commons)

Fred Upton (R-Mich.)

• One in five Michigan residents (PDF) –- 1,964,900 people –- received Social Security benefits in 2010.
• Social Security reduced the poverty rate for women 65 and older from 54 percent to 9 percent and lifted 34,000 children out of poverty.
• In 2008, about 534,900 non-elderly women and 97,600 elderly women in Michigan were on Medicaid.
• Approximately 1,454,000 individuals in Michigan use Medicare; 56 percent of them are women.
• In 2009, the CCDBG served approximately 37,000 Michigan families (PDF), with 71,800 children, each month.
• In 2009, Head Start and Early Head Start preschool programs served 34,200 young children in Michigan.
• In 2010, 865,500 Michigan households were beneficiaries of the SNAP program.
• Between 2007 and 2010, unemployment for women in Michigan (PDF) has increased from 7.1 percent to 9.9 percent.

Sen Jon Kyl (Wikimedia Commons)

• One in six Arizona residents (PDF) –- 1,067,700 people people -– received Social Security benefits in 2010, according to the National Women’s Law Center.
• Social Security reduced the poverty rate for women 65 and older from 46 percent to 13 percent and lifted 18,000 children out of poverty.
• In 2008, about 433,200 non-elderly women and 63,900 elderly women in Arizona were on Medicaid.
• Approximately 848,000 individuals in Arizona use Medicare; 58 percent of them are women.
• In 2009, the CCDBG served approximately 19,900 Arizona families (PDF), with 32,700 children, each month.
• In 2009, Head Start and Early Head Start preschool programs served 12,900 young children in Arizona.
• In 2010, 439,400 Arizona households were beneficiaries of the SNAP program.
• Between 2007 and 2010, unemployment for women in Arizona (PDF) increased from 4.0 percent to 9.4 percent.

Sen. Pat Toomey (Wikimedia Commons)

• One in five Pennsylvania residents (PDF) –- 2,577,700 people people -– received Social Security benefits in 2010.
• Social Security reduced the poverty rate for women 65 and older from 54 percent to 12 percent and lifted 49,000 children out of poverty.
• In 2008, about 610,600 non-elderly women and 168,400 elderly women in Pennsylvania were on Medicaid.
• Approximately 2,060,000 individuals in Pennsylvania use Medicare; 57 percent of them are women.
• In 2009, the CCDBG served approximately 54,900 Pennsylvania families (PDF), with 93,900 children, each month.
• In 2009, Head Start and Early Head Start preschool programs served 35,300 young children in Pennsylvania.
• In 2010, 740,200 Pennsylvania households were beneficiaries of the SNAP program.
• Between 2007 and 2010, unemployment for women in Pennsylvania (PDF) increased from 3.7 percent to 7.6 percent.

Sen. Rob Portman (Wikimedia Commons)

• One in five Ohio residents (PDF) -– 2,124,700 people -– received Social Security benefits in 2010, according to the National Women’s Law Center.
• Social Security reduced the poverty rate for women 65 and older from 53 percent to 10 percent and lifted 47,000 children out of poverty.
• In 2008, about 570,500 non-elderly women and 131,200 elderly women in Ohio were on Medicaid.
• Approximately 1,802,000 individuals in Ohio use Medicare; 54 percent of them are women.
• In 2009, the CCDBG served approximately 29,800 Ohio families (PDF), with 51,700 children, each month.
• In 2009, Head Start and Early Head Start preschool programs served 37,100 young children in Ohio.
• In 2010, 751,300 Ohio households were beneficiaries of the SNAP program.
• Between 2007 and 2010, unemployment for women in Ohio (PDF) increased from 5.1 percent to 8.5 percent.

Photo: Flickr/longislandwins

In the case of today’s long-term deficit-reduction negotiations in Congress –- currently being deliberated by the Joint Select Committee on Deficit Reduction, or “super committee” –- Congress is Dwight, Nov. 23 is Dwight’s 5 p.m. (the sequester deadline, i.e., the trigger mechanism that would make $1.2 trillion across-the-board cuts), and both scenarios can be nipped in the bud by their respective creators.

Time is running out for the super committee, appointed to cut at least $1.2 trillion from the federal deficit over the next decade, and if — as many news outlets are predicting — they fail to come up with a solid plan within the next nine days, Congress will plan to slash $600 billion from defense spending and $600 billion from domestic programs excluding Social Security and Medicaid, including cuts to Medicare payments to hospitals and other providers, come the 2013 budget.

The American Independent recently reported on how certain GOP presidential candidates’ proposed tax-policy plans would disproportionately affect women, who tend to earn lower wages and depend more on entitlement programs than men. This week, TAI takes a look at how the super committee’s proposal could disproportionately impact women.

What’s on the table?

Reporting that has emerged from the closed-door super committee meetings reveals the six Democrats on the panel are generally insistent on raising revenues from tax increases; wish to end the Bush-era tax cuts; and preserve Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid. The six Republicans, meanwhile, have slowly begun to discuss revenues but are opposed to achieving them through tax cuts; want to make permanent the Bush-era tax cuts; and are pushing to restructure how Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid are paid for in the future.

Roll Call details the latest in negotiations: Last week panel member Sen. Pat Toomey (R-Pa.) proposed a $1.2 trillion plan comprising $700 billion in cuts and $500 billion in revenues (half of the revenues would come from $250 billion in “tax code reform’). The most recent Democratic offer is a $2.3 trillion reduction plan over 10 years involving $1 trillion in revenues (including tax hikes) and $400 billion in “entitlement reform.”

Still they remain at an impasse.

But as Politico recently reported, despite having the power to dismantle the doomsday device, the president won’t take it. According to a White House statement, on Friday Obama called super committee co-chairs Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.) and Rep. Jeb. Hensarling (R-Texas) to tell them he will refuse attempts to override the automatic cuts if the panel can’t complete the task. (In the “Office” episode, Dwight makes the same promise after the staff does fail, but he caves at the 11th hour.)

“The sequester was agreed to by both parties to ensure there was a meaningful enforcement mechanism to force a result from the Committee,” Obama said in the statement. “Congress must not shirk its responsibilities.”

Lobbying ladies

One prediction if the super committee fails is that industries and special-interest groups will spend a year before the trigger takes effect lobbying Congress to reconsider cuts to specific programs. The Hill forecasts heavy lobbying from the Pentagon, defense contractors, liberal activists and labor unions.

Women’s advocacy groups have already begun voicing suggestions as to how to trim spending without devastating the neediest Americans, many of whom happen to be single women with children.

Early this month, National Organization for Women (NOW) President Terry O’Neill blasted the super committee’s “irresponsible proposals,” referring to assumptions the Republican members on the committee are pushing for Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan-style changes to Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security while, at the same time, opposing tax increases on corporations and millionaires. O’Neill similarly censured proposals she had heard from the Democratic side:

[I]t’s beyond distressing to see some Democrats knuckling under and now embracing plans that would cause great hardship on retirees — mainly women, particularly women of color, as well as people with severe disabilities and our oldest seniors. The Democrats’ proposal would change the [Social Security Cost-of-Living adjustment] (COLA) so that monthly benefits are dramatically reduced, further impoverishing the millions of seniors who depend exclusively on their Social Security check. Medicare would be cut by $400 billion (on top of the $500 billion savings adopted in the Affordable Care Act), and Medicaid would be cut by $75 billion. … There’s not much worse than taking from the most vulnerable in society to pay for a deficit caused by a failure to tax millionaires and billionaires and waging two unfunded wars.

So what does NOW want the super committee to do?

• Preserve COLA and minimize cuts to programs that disproportionately serve and employ women, among them Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), commonly referred to as food stamps; college-tuition-assistance programs, child care; and family planning programs.
• End Bush-era tax cuts.
• Eliminate the payroll tax cap, which would raise taxes on the wealthiest Americans.

The Institute for Women’s Policy Research (IWPR), a think thank that focuses on women’s domestic issues, has ideas of how to improve women’s economic standing in this country — ideas that likely contradict proposals the super committee members have been tossing around. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, although men have regained nearly 30 percent of the jobs they lost during the recession, women have regained only 10 percent of the jobs they lost. In July, men earned 136,000 jobs; women lost 19,000.

Among IWPR proposals, as laid out in a September 2011 report titled “Recommendations for Improving Women’s Employment in the Recovery”:

• Make federal transfers available to state and local governments to replace lost revenues and allow them to hire back the teachers, case workers, nurses and others they have laid off.
• Expand the length of the school day and school year.
• Create an “Urban Conservation Corps” — programs partnering labor unions with inner-city youth with the goal of bring skills and employment opportunities to young women and men.
• Fund child care.
• Adopt tax incentives for businesses that offer their employees “work-life balance.”
• Expand unemployment insurance benefits for workers with reduced working hours.
• Expand employment for women in male-dominated fields, such as construction, transportation and green energy
• Increase funding for jobs that provide direct care to children, disabled adults and the elderly. (According to the Economic Policy Institute (PDF), investments in physical infrastructure and human capital, such as early childhood development, education, health care, job training, would create jobs for women and men and contribute to long-term economic growth.)

Over at the National Women’s Law Center, the general position on the super committee proceedings is that the panel should promote job growth and strengthen the economy while simultaneously protecting programs that women and their families depend on now and in old age — women in general depend on Medicare and Medicaid at higher rates than men, and two-thirds of SNAP recipients are female, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (PDF).

Specifically the NWLC wants:

• Reduced tax breaks for oil and gas industries and corporations that move jobs and profits overseas.
• New tax brackets for annual income starting above $1 million and taxing income from capital gains and dividends at the same rate as income from work for taxpayers with income above $1 million.
• A small tax on financial transactions such as stock trades — to raise revenue but also to discourage short-term speculation. According to the Economic Policy Institute and the Century Foundation, a 0.5 percent tax on stock transactions would raise about $77 billion per year; a 0.5 percent tax on all financial transactions (options, futures, swap transactions) would raise approximately $150 billion per year.
• An extension on federal emergency unemployment benefits.

But for now, what women want — what all Americans want, and they all want different things — is in the hands of 12 under-pressure representatives and senators. And the clock is ticking.

Photo: Flickr/AMagill

That message could be made stronger by the fact that more than 20 percent of those surveyed are still unsure who they’ll support in the Jan. 3 presidential contest, the survey found.

The survey of 400 likely Republican caucusgoers by GS Strategy Group shows 64.5 percent are opposed to Social Security cuts, and 67.3 percent to Medicare cuts. Another 86 percent of those surveyed said Social Security benefits are important to their monthly income, and 87 percent said Medicare is essential to seniors’ health care security.

Those surveyed would much prefer withdrawing troops from Iraq and Afghanistan to cutting Medicare (67.3 percent to 9.5 percent) or Social Security (65 percent to 8.8 percent).

Of those surveyed, 76.8 percent identified themselves as conservative and 50.5 percent as very conservative.

“Opposition to these benefit cuts among Republicans across the ideological spectrum confirms what AARP has been hearing from Iowans throughout our campaign to protect Social Security and Medicare: Whether Republican, Democrat, Independent or Tea Party supporter, voters overwhelmingly oppose cuts to these programs,” said AARP Iowa State President Tony Vola.

Businessman Herman Cain led all GOP presidential candidates in the survey, with support at 25 percent. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney had 21.5 percent support, and U.S. Rep. Ron Paul (R-Texas) had 8.3 percent.

But more than 22.8 percent of those surveyed were still undecided, suggesting the race for the Republican nomination is still wide open, at least in the Hawkeye State.

The margin of error for the survey, conducted Oct. 17 and 18, is 4.9 percent.

59 percent of New Mexico voters say the federal budget deficit reduction should not involve cutting Medicaid, according to a new poll commissioned by advocacy groups in the state.

The Research and Polling, Inc. poll also found that 83 percent of surveyed New Mexico voters believe Medicaid, which provides government-funded health insurance for lower-income Americans, is an important program.

The New Mexico Business Weekly reports:

Nearly 560,000 New Mexicans, or about a quarter of the state’s population, are on Medicaid. That includes 461,200 residents aged 21 and younger.

The total cost for the state’s program is $3.74 billion a year. Of that, $2.6 billion comes from the federal government and $1.1 billion from the state’s general fund.

Between 1990 and 2009, spending for New Mexico’s Medicaid program grew by an average of 12 percent, according to the Kaiser Family Foundation.

New Mexicans aren’t alone in their support for Medicaid, which is one of the most popular government programs in the United States. A Bloomberg News national poll found that only 21 percent of Americans favor cutting Medicaid after it has been identified as “government help for medical care for low-income people”, while 76 percent oppose.

The Bloomberg poll also found that cutting Medicaid was less popular than repealing all recent tax cuts, reducing Social Security benefits by slowing cost-of-living increases, raising the retirement age, eliminating all federal income tax deductions, cutting defense spending, or increasing Medicare co-pays.

The extent to which Medicaid will be cut in order to reduce the deficit is currently at the center of the negotiations between congressional Republicans and Democrats on the Joint Select Committee on Deficit Reduction created by the debt ceiling increase passed in August. A recent proposal from Republican committee members would cut Medicaid by $185 billion over the next ten years, and a Democratic proposal would cut $75 billion.

Medicaid would largely be spared if the committee fails to reach an agreement by the November 23 deadline. At that point, large cuts to Medicare providers and defense spending would kick in to make up most of the total amount of medium-term deficit reduction required by the debt ceiling increase, assuming Congress does not step in to extend the deadline.

Kent Sovern, state director for AARP Iowa, said the first increase in three years will provide “much needed relief to older Iowans” that have struggled with the costs of food, utilities and health care. The increase was announced Wednesday.

Kent Sovern

He said 123,000 Iowans – who account for more than 21 percent of Social Security beneficiaries across the state -depend on the program for more than 90 percent of their income.

“Every dollar of the modest average benefit, which is about $14,000 a year, is critical,” Sovern said.

Harkin agreed seniors in Iowa have seen prices of gas, groceries and healthcare rise significantly in the past several years.

“This increase in their Social Security benefits will help bridge the gap between these rising costs and the benefits seniors so

Tom Harkin

rightly deserve,” Harkin said. “It also reminds us of the vital importance of Social Security to American seniors. We must do all that we can to keep our promise to them by maintaining and strengthening Social Security for today’s seniors and generations to come.”

But the irony, Sovern said, is the increase in benefits comes as the debt super committee in Washington, D.C. is considering cutting Social Security benefits by $112 billion over 10 years.

“This so-called ‘chained CPI’ would cut benefits by thousands of dollars and compounds over time, so the older one gets, the larger the cut,” he said.

Sovern said the AARP is committed to fighting with the strength of its membership to stop cuts to Social Security benefits as part of any budget deal.

Gingrich told a crowd of about 100 people at Iowa State University that he’s not raising as much money as some presidential candidates, but he thinks he can overcome that if he hangs in the race long enough.

“I don’t have the kind of money that Perry and Romney have,” Gingrich said. “I’m not going to be able to go out and campaign in a state the size of California right now. But if I come in first or second in Iowa and can go on to New Hampshire and come in first or second and then get to South Carolina, I think I will be the nominee.”

Former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich believes if he works hard he can become the GOP presidential nominee, win the general election and make his 21st Century Contract with America a reality. (Photo: Andrew Duffelmeyer/The Iowa Independent)

At that point campaign funds won’t matter as much, Gingrich said, because he’ll be able to harness more earned media. He said that was evident in 2008, when John McCain was able to win the Florida primary despite being outspent 10-to-1.

“I think at that stage you have so much earned media that the value of the money you raise is dramatically less relevant,” Gingrich said.

Campaign spokesman R.C. Hammond said the caucuses can be a catapult for Gingrich.

“If you do well in Iowa the nation starts to pay attention,” Hammond said. “Iowa is responding very well to Newt’s contact, the idea of putting big ideas out there because we understand the country is in trouble.”

Hammond said the campaign plans to open offices in Iowa in mid-October, and it already has volunteers organizing in their towns.

“We’re going to run a very aggressive ground-game here going into Christmas and whether the caucus is held Christmas morning or
Thanksgiving afternoon we’re going to be ready,” he said.

Steffen Schmidt, a professor of political science at Iowa State University, said Gingrich has been doing better in polls and could
step up further due to recent missteps from Texas Gov. Rick Perry and U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann.

“There’s a lot of uncertainty and people really are looking again and still looking,” Schmidt said. “Probably Newt Gingrich is one of the ones that they’re looking at more than when the campaign started, when he had a little rough time getting started.”

Schmidt said even if Gingrich comes in second or third in the caucuses that would give him a boost heading into New Hampshire.

“Then he’s from Georgia so he’ll probably do well in South Carolina,” Schmidt said. “If the money keeps rolling in he can certainly go a little longer. I think probably he will go beyond Iowa.”

Gingrich was in Ames today to speak at the Iowa State University Presidential Caucus Series. He spent much of his hour-long remarks outlining his plans for jump-starting the nation’s science and technology sectors.

But he also took time to outline his recently-unveiled “21st Century Contract with America,” which includes legislative proposals such as repealing so-called Obamacare, cutting taxes and regulations, and restructuring Medicare and Social Security.

Gingrich said different thinking is necessary to overcome the nation’s challenges, and people in Washington, D.C. may view his proposals as a fantasy.

“I am asking you to be with me not just through the primary, the caucus, not just through the election, but through the eight years of actually implementing this,” he said. “It’s a huge assignment.”

Pawlenty argued he’s in a good position to judge Romney’s chance at the Oval Office because of his two statewide election wins in “blue state” Minnesota.

Pawlenty, who has officially backed Romney, warned that Pres. Barack Obama shouldn’t be underestimated, and said Republicans shouldn’t waste this opportunity by nominating a “vulnerable candidate.”

Pawlenty also took a veiled swipe at Texas Gov. Rick Perry.

“While Romney has long seen that Social Security has severe, long-term financial problems, he favors saving and protecting the program by fixing those problems,” Pawlenty wrote. “He has not denounced the program—as some have done—and called it unconstitutional. He has not proposed that Social Security be turned over to state governments.”

Pawlenty said those positions on Social Security are “untenable” and would “cost Republicans dearly in the election.”

The Romney campaign has recently targeted Perry on his Social Security stances, which use 10th Amendment rhetoric to appeal to the right-wing of the Republican Party. As the Washington Post notes, it’s not clear that those criticisms have hurt Perry in the polls yet.

State and local government spending is less likely to be seen as wasted, but belief in how much of it is wasted has risen at about the same pace as belief in federal waste:

The elderly and people without postgraduate degrees are more likely to rate government waste as slightly larger, as well as self-identified Republicans, independents and conservatives.

The partisan difference over how much federal government spending is wasted is the reverse of what it was in 2001, under President George W. Bush, when Democrats on average thought more federal spending was wasted than Republicans did, suggesting who is in office affects perceptions of government waste.

The greater perception of government waste on average among those over age 65 contrasts sharply with the reality that a disproportionate amount of government spending goes to the elderly through Social Security and Medicare. As this graph from the Center for Budget and Policy Priorities shows, federal government spending largely goes to defense and the military, Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, safety-net programs and interest on the debt.

In the past, when pollsters have asked Americans which specific federal program they think should be cut, very little consensus emerges on which is most deserving. In January, Gallup found that bipartisan majorities of the public opposed cutting Social Security, Medicare, education and anti-poverty programs.

Foreign aid, which makes up less than one percent of the federal budget, was the most popular potential target of cuts. The biggest partisan difference was over defense spending, where Republicans are much less likely to support cuts.

As Gallup says in its own interpretation of the poll, “It is not clear whether Americans believe government wastes money because it spends on programs they believe are not needed, or because it does not spend money efficiently on programs, whether needed or not.” Nor does the poll say whether Americans believe mandatory or discretionary spending is more wasteful.

About two-thirds of state government spending is typically devoted to K-12 and higher education, Medicaid, transportation, anti-poverty programs and corrections. The remaining third varies by state, but is usually comprised at least somewhat by pensions for retired public sector workers.

The following CBPP graph shows average state government spending by area:

Held under a tent at the rain-soaked balloon fields in Indianola, the signature event for the Democratic senator drew about 300 people.

The audience, largely party activists and organized labor loyalists, heard an old-school, firebrand speech advocating progressive policies and taking on corporate America from U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders, a Vermont Independent who still speaks with the unmistakable accent of his native New York City.

Additionally, Clinton insider Paul Begala, an architect of President Bill Clinton’s presidential campaigns and White House policies and a cable-TV show regular, keynoted the event in a speech jammed with Texas-sized wit.

Paul Begala

“I read the Holy Bible and I watch Fox News so I know what both sides are thinking,” Begala said.

His thoughts on the Republican presidential debate at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation and Library in Simi Valley, Calif., two weeks ago: “I had a sense that for some of them it was their first time in a library,” Begala said.

Begala also served up about cracks on fellow Texan Rick Perry, the governor of the Lone Star State and a leading Republican candidate for the White House.

“He’s running as a Republican — I thought he was running as a joke,” Begala said.

Begala noted that Perry earned a “C” in animal breeding at Texas A&M.

“I have goats that got a ‘A’ in that,” Begala said.

He added, “Be nice to him (Perry). Talk real slow.”

Begala compared presidential candidate Mitt Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts to the models that pose for photos that are included in picture frames or wallets when these items are purchased in stores.

“When we get home we take that out and put a real person in,” Begala said.

Back in Texas, Begala said he had a conversation with a highly successful liberal Democrat and wealthy conservative who ran in the same circles. The liberal looked across the street in his well-to-do neighborhood and spotted a gardener. He said he wanted the gardener’s son to have the same opportunities he did to emerge from working-class origins to the upper class. The conservative Texan had a different take: “That gardener’s son will be my son’s gardener,” the conservative said, according to Begala.

“They (conservatives) believe the only way they can advance themselves is to tear the rest of you down,” Begala said.

Begala said he measures the goodness of people by one of the first questions a human asked in the Bible, when, in the Book of Genesis, Cain, who had just killed his brother Abel, put this query to God: “Am I my brother’s keeper?”

“How you answer that question will frankly determine whether you are a good person,” Begala said.

Bernie Sanders

Sanders’ policy-oriented speech served as a strong defense of long-standing pillars of the Democratic Party.

“Social Security, in my view, is the most successful federal program in the history of the United States,” Sanders said.

The Congressional Budget Office estimates that Social Security will pay benefits to about 56 million in 2011.

Sanders has offered legislation to increase the $106,800 cap on income subject to Social Security taxes, an idea President Barack Obama embraced in the 2008 campaign. This proposal drew some of the most sustained applause at the Harkin steak fry.

“We have to stand tall and say ‘no cuts to Social Security,’” Sanders said.

Sanders said he would fight any Republican attempts to increase the eligibility age for Medicare.

“We are not going to let them raise the eligibility age to 67,” Sanders said.

Sanders said corporate greed is at the heart of American economic troubles.

“The wealthiest people in this country have developed a new religion,” Sanders said. “… Their religion is greed and they want more and more.”

Harkin said Americans should find the environments at Republican presidential debates disturbing. He said he was particularly appalled with the glee with which some Republicans have responded to the idea of people being executed under Perry’s watch in Texas.

“I don’t care whether you’re for the death penalty or not,” Harkin said. “You shouldn’t exult it.”

Harkin acknowledged that Democrats face challenges in the 2012 elections. But Republicans themselves appear to be coming to the rescue, the senator said.

Tom Harkin

“We owe a big thank-you to all Republican candidates visiting Iowa,” Harkin said.

His take on U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.), the winner of the Iowa GOP Straw Poll last month in Ames:

“Iowa Republicans are going to Michele Bachmann because they find Sarah Palin too cerebral.”

Harkin referenced Perry’s response to a question about what differentiates him from President George W. Bush. Perry replied that Bush went to Yale University while Perry’s alma mater is Texas A&M.

“In other words, Bush is the smart one,” Harkin joked.

Harkin said the U.S. faces a deficit of courage and creativity that fueled the last century under presidents like Franklin Roosevelt, Harry Truman and John Kennedy.

Where are the big ideas and bold challenges? Harkin asked.

“The problem is that we’re still driving on Eisenhower’s highways and sending our kids to FDR’s schools,” Harkin said.

A second poll out this week, from Public Policy Polling, shows Perry leading Romney by a much larger margin, 31-18, but also shows his support among likely Republican primary voters to be falling.

From Bloomberg.com:

Republicans give Rick Perry frontrunner status in their party’s presidential primary race even as warning signs flash over his ability to win support in the general election.

The Texas governor is the preferred choice of 26 percent of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents in a Bloomberg National Poll conducted Sept. 9-12. Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney places second at 22 percent, while all of the other Republican candidates get less than 10 percent.

In a hypothetical general election matchup, Perry trails President Barack Obama among the poll’s entire sample, 49 percent to 40 percent, about twice the deficit for Romney. Perry also confronts negative reactions from Americans disinclined to vote for a candidate expressing the skepticism he has about the viability of Social Security, evolution science and whether humans contribute to climate change.

“Science is an integral part of our culture,” said Danyelle Lowers, 27, a student at Kent State University in Kent, Ohio, who considers herself an independent voter. “To have such a general disregard for the sciences is rather terrifying.”

Still, positions and statements that could hurt Perry in a faceoff with Obama work to his advantage with his most immediate audience — Republican primary voters.

Perry’s skepticism on climate change and evolution, while playing well in the primaries could hurt him in a general election, the polls showed.

Forty-five percent of Americans say they’d be less inclined to support a candidate who says science isn’t settled on whether human activity contributes to global warming, while 25 percent said it would make them more likely to back that candidate. Half said they would be turned off by a candidate who says evolution remains an unproven theory, with 20 percent saying they’d be more inclined to support someone who holds that view.

The PPP poll also shows double digit support for Ron Paul at 11 percent and Newt Gingrich at 10 percent.

From the PPP website:

In a sense these numbers are good news for both Perry and Romney. They’re obviously good for Perry in that he’s been able to maintain a double digit lead as the attacks have begun flying at him. But they’re also good news for Romney because after a 2 month period of surging support for Perry his momentum has finally stopped. Certainly he’s in a very strong position and he’ll win the nomination if he can maintain it, but his support isn’t still surging the way it had been poll after poll after poll.

Perry, though, has strong support among people whose views are outside the mainstream. While that may carry him to the nomination, it will make 2012 a tricky road for Republicans:

Romney leads Perry 23-18 among GOP voters who believe in global warming…but that’s only 27% of them. With the 62% who don’t believe in it Perry’s up 38-14. One interesting note on those numbers- Perry’s favorability with Republicans who believe in global warming is 37/50. Are those folks going to vote for him in the general election if he ends up as the nominee?

With Republicans who don’t think Barack Obama is a Socialist, Romney leads Perry 26-13…but with the 71% who do think Obama is a Socialist, Perry is ahead 35-16.

The good news is pouring in for Republicans right now. But if there’s a dark cloud ahead it’s the possibility of ending up with a nominee who’s gone so far outside the mainstream to win over Republican primary voters that he can’t win the center against Obama. It’s something to keep an eye on.