Gentry Collins, one of the first candidates to publicly challenge current chairman Michael Steele, has ended his campaign to claim his former boss’ position. Collins — a former Iowa GOP operative — made a splash with his entrance in the race, as he had served the RNC as political director during Steele’s term leading the party. Before he declared himself a candidate, Collins resigned from his RNC position with a scathing letter attacking Steele’s tenure leading the GOP. But since entering the field, Collins has struggled to gain support from RNC delegates, with only three members having publicly pledged their support to him before he ended his bid.

Though Steele now has one fewer opponent, his path to reelection appears to have closed. Politico approached the RNC delegates and found that over half intend to oppose Steele when the GOP votes on Jan. 14.

A weeklong canvass of the party’s governing board by POLITICO revealed 88 members who have decided not to vote for Steele, either opting to support one of his opponents or simply ruling out Steele as a choice in the race.

With 165 voting members, a candidate needs to claim support from at least 85 delegates to claim the RNC chair position, a number that now appears completely out of Steele’s grasp. Only 15 RNC members have said that they intend to vote for the current chairman.

So if not Steele, who is likely to claim the chairmanship? Former Wisconsin Republican Chairman Reince Priebus is the apparent leader in the race for the moment, with 30 delegates already publicly pledging their support. But since the RNC chairman is chosen through multiple rounds of balloting until one candidate secures half the votes, the battle to win the election may hinge more on which candidate positions him or herself as the second choice of the most delegates. However, the other candidates do have a significant amount of ground to make up if they are to equal Priebus’ level of support. Former RNC Co-Chair Ann Wagner currently sits as the second-place challenger to the incumbent, with 12 public supporters, followed by former Michigan GOP Chair Saul Anuzis with 10 backers and Maria Cino with only six supporters.

The candidates will meet in Washington, D.C., Monday in a debate moderated by Grover Norquist and Tucker Carlson.

As of Monday, Priebus was publicly supported by 22 voting RNC delegates, compared to only 12 behind Steele. Former Michigan Republican chair Saul Anuzis is breathing right down Steele’s neck with 11 pledges delegates, and former RNC co-chair Ann Wagner is in the mix with 10 supporters.

With the Jan. 14 vote for the next chairman fast approaching, over one-third of the RNC delegates have publicly stated their voting intentions. As I noted two weeks ago, Steele’s deficit in supporters is likely closer to the sum of all the challengers’ delegates rather than just Priebus’ alone, as those RNC members have already decided to back someone besides the incumbent Steele and will be likely to switch their allegiance to one of the other challengers once their initial favorite drops from the ballot.

The Hotline also reported that Priebus has managed to pull away a key Steele ally for his corner:

On Sunday, California national committee member Shawn Steel made public his decision to back Wisconsin Republican Party chairman Reince Priebus. The Californian had been a key member of Steele’s kitchen cabinet and one of the incumbent chairman’s top defenders.

The defection, rumored for a week, is seen as a major blow to Steele’s dwindling re-election hopes.

CNN reports:

Ann Wagner, one of six candidates seeking the chairmanship of the Republican National Committee, is promising not to support Chairman Michael Steele under any circumstance if she happens to come up short in her bid to lead the organization.

The former Missouri GOP Chairwoman and onetime Ambassador to Luxembourg told CNN Monday that she will “absolutely not” endorse Steele or tell her supporters to do so if she fails to make it to the final round of what is likely to be a multi-ballot election come January.

[...]

“I would ask any of the candidates out there to not to move any of their support to Michael Steele, regardless of the outcome of any one individual,” she said.

While affirming that she is “in the race to win it,” Wagner said numerous committee members have, in the course of their conversations, asked her not to back Steele if she fails to advance to the late stages of the election.

“I have made that commitment to many of the men and women who have asked me that,” Wagner said. “They want a new direction, a new leadership. That’s my commitment.”

Wagner’s opposition could be a sign of things to come among the other candidates challenging Steele’s position atop the party. As TAI detailed last week, the other candidates have largely entered the field to pick up the anti-Steele voice of the party.

According to an updated whip count of RNC voting members from the Hotline on Monday, Reince Priebus has opened an even wider lead on Steele. The Wisconsin GOPer has 16 RNC delegates who have publicly pledged their support, compared to only 12 for Steele. Wagner is then tied with former Michigan GOP Chairman Saul Anuzis with 10 delegates each.

[h/t The Corner]

According to a whip count from The Hotline, 13 RNC delegates have publicly declared their support for Priebus, whereas Steele has 12 official backers. That one vote separation may be an essential tie, but it bodes poorly for Steele’s reelection hopes. Eighteen delegates have committed to supporting another candidate: nine have said they will vote for former Michigan GOP Chairman Saul Anuzis, seven for former RNC co-chair Ann Wagner, and two for former RNC political director Gentry Collins.

The party chairman is not chosen in a first-past-the-post vote, the way general U.S. elections operate. Instead, RNC members take a series of votes, eliminating candidates in each round until one person receives a majority of the votes. With 185 members, that means a candidate must secure 85 supporters to win the post.

The challenge for Steele is that many of those backing the other candidates such as Collins or Wagner have already decided to buck the current party chairman, so they will be more likely to support another candidate if their first choice is knocked out of the running.

There is already an “anybody but Steele” sentiment circulating in certain circles of the Republican Party. Major Republican donors threatened to abandon fundraising for the party, according to Politico. In a separate article, Politico reported that Mike Duncan, Steele’s predecessor at the helm of the RNC, has reached out to candidates to suggest that the challengers form “a united front” to oppose Steele’s reelection.

Priebus’s list of public supporters indicates that he will be the most likely candidate to end up on the final ballot alongside Steele. He has wrapped up support from the Wisconsin RNC delegation, and has received backing from across the country. Most importantly, Henry Barbour has publicly stated he intends to vote for Priebus. Henry is the nephew of Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour, a former RNC chairman whose voice continues to carry significant weight among the party’s elite, especially in fundraising matters, which at the end of the day is the primary function of a party chair.

The speculation over Republican National Committee (RNC) Chairman Michael Steele’s future with the group will come to an end tonight. At 7:30 p.m. EST, he is scheduled to speak with members of the RNC during a conference call. Fox News’ sources indicate that Steele will announce that he will not seek a second term during the call, but the chairman has remained coy about his decision. The next RNC chair will be selected when the organization’s members meet in the middle of January.

Steele’s two years as chairman of the party been filled with both positives and negatives for his image. In terms of results, Steele has overseen two of the most successful years for the GOP; when he took the helm in early 2009 the party was in a state of crisis after Barack Obama swept Democrats to wide majorities in both chambers of Congress, but the GOP regrouped in 2010 and won historic margins in Congress for the midterm elections.

At the same time, Steele himself has been plagued by a continual series of gaffes that distracted from his other work, and the party closes 2010 with its future weighed by over $15 million in debt. Though the RNC chairman is not selected by any form of popular vote, rank and file Republicans have turned against Steele. Almost half of Republican voters would oppose Steele if he ran for the chairmanship again according to a recent poll.

A host of other candidates are already in the race no matter what Steele announces Monday night. Wisconsin Republican Party chairman Reince Priebus is projected as an early front runner. He has already wrapped up the support of Wisconsin’s GOP and is backed by influential Mississippi Gov. and former RNC Chairman Haley Barbour. Also among those running: former Michigan Republican chairman Saul Anuzis, Gentry Collins who was the RNC’s political director until he resigned last month with a scathing letter against Steele, and former RNC co-chair Ann Wagner.

Those currently running have fairly low public profiles, much like Steele before he won the chairmanship in 2009. That could come back to haunt the party, though, as these individuals’ past ties will be subjected to greater public inspection if they win the chairmanship. Anuzis, for example, has defended Young Americans for Freedom, an organization the Southern Poverty Law Center termed a hate group over its white nationalist statements.

If suspicions that Steele will not run again are confirmed, other possible candidates may be willing to enter the race. Former Minnesota Sen. Norm Coleman has been speculated about as a possible candidate earlier this year. He recently stated that he would not oppose Steele but did not deny his interest in running if the current chairman steps aside. Coleman — who helped found the conservative nonprofit American Action Network after he lost his Senate election in 2008 — would likely have the highest name recognition of any candidate if he chooses to run.

Mike Duncan, Steele’s predecessor as RNC Chair and current chairman of American Crossroads, is weighing whether to run for his old position. American Crossroads was the biggest outside player in the 2010 midterm elections, becoming a symbol for undisclosed spending after Citizens United. Duncan would be a major player if he puts his hat into the ring. The RNC chair is primarily responsible for party fundraising, so Duncan’s success leading American Crossroads would augur well for his ability to lead the RNC out of its debt problem as they seek to reclaim the White House in 2012.

“I’d say congratulations, and I look forward to sparring with him. And then I’d say: How you like me now?”

To another question, about how he’d fix the GOP’s “image problem”: “Well, I got a nice suit.” He stepped away from the podium and undid a button. “And a nice tie! But seriously…”

Michael Steele – 79 (+17)
Katon Dawson – 69 (+9)
Saul Anuzis – 20 (-11)

Minutes later, Anuzis took the stage to deliver a 45-second statement thanking the members and endorsing no one. Steele needs 1/3 of Anuzis’s supporters to win; Dawson needs 2/3.

Blackwell had 15 votes, and if they all go to Steele, that puts him at 77: nine votes shy of victory. Everyone’s watching to see whether Blackwell’s supporters move in unison, as they are largely conservative stalwarts and Steele is considered the most moderate candidate in the field.

Katon Dawson – 62
Michael Steele – 60
Saul Anuzis – 31
Ken Blackwell – 15

Dawson’s people broke out into cheers: They picked up 28 of Duncan’s 44 votes. Steele only gained nine, Anuzis 7. The dealmaking goes on with Dawson’s best card already played. Before the count I saw Dawson chatting with Anuzis, but heard nothing.