Eight months later, Republicans are still filibustering Hamilton, having portrayed him as a judicial activist who may or may not be anti-Christianity. Sen. Jeff Sessions (R-Ala.) attacked Hamilton this week in a speech at the Federalist Society.

Judge Hamilton’s record demonstrates an adherence to a liberal activist, not liberal — that’s not a problem with me or Democratic lawyers who’ve been active in — in Democratic or liberal politics. But the question for our confirmation always is, I think, for the Republican members on our side whether their personal political, ideological views will overcome their commitment to the law.

But I — but Hamilton’s record, I think, is troubling, as I’ve just indicated. He worked for ACORN, was a litigation director for the Indiana ACLU. He has endorsed the notion that a judge’s job is to, quote, “write footnotes to the Constitution.

Indeed, Hamilton worked for ACORN–for one month in 1979. This attack on him has really smacked of McCarthyism. RedState sums up the other attacks in a post encouraging readers to call the Senate to demand a filibuster, A vote was expected this week or early next week–since Hamilton has the support of Sen. Richard Lugar (R-Ind.), it’s worth watching if any Democrats join a filibuster of the nominee based on under-the-radar smears.

But wait, weren’t all the experts and pundits worrying about Obama’s demise just one month ago? Well times change.

Markets fall. Running mates get exposed as embarassingly unqualified. So now this week’s conventional wisdom — first teed up on the front page of the Sunday New York Times and now spreading across the chattering class — is that Obama will not only win, but win big.

The Times analysis focused on the economy, reporting that pocketbook issues were powering Obama “in at least nine states that voted for President Bush in 2004, including some that neither side thought would be on the table this close to Election Day.”

The piece included caveats, but flip to the back of the paper and you’ll find bolder predictions. On Monday, conservative columnist David Brooks flatly “called the election for Obama.” (He was speaking at the American Magazine Conference, as Advertising Age reported.) Even Clintonites are getting in on the act.

“It’s over,” says Howard Wolfson, the Clinton press strategist turned Fox News commentator (and sometime blogger). “If the election were tomorrow, Obama would win all of the states John Kerry carried and add Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, Virginia, Nevada, Ohio and Florida,” he blogged this week. “This dynamic is very unlikely to change. John McCain’s goal in the first debate was to discredit Sen. Obama as a credible commander in chief… He didn’t come close. Absent a domestic terror attack the economy will remain the No. 1 issue in the race, and there is little Sen. McCain can do to make up [the] gap.”

I found the August hand-wringing about Obama’s problems overblown. While these have obviously been two great weeks for the Democratic nominee, this new narrative is also over the top.

Perceptions change quickly in politics. A “terror attack” is not the only event that could upend this race. Let’s dial it down — how about a gaffe in the remaining debates? Or new revelations about any of the candidates?

In this volatile market, you’d think people would be more careful about hedging their bets.

Capping a speech about the economic “values at stake” in the election, Obama sounded more like a field organizer than a candidate, trying to persuade voters that a Democrat could actually win here. “I need you to knock on some doors!” he yelled, “I need you to make some phone calls! I need you to talk to your neighbors!”

North Carolina has voted Republican in every presidential election since 1968, with the post-Watergate exception of 1972, when the Southerner Jimmy Carter won the state.

Obama’s campaign would probably not be spending precious time here in September, however, or investing in large-scale rallies or buying TV ads, unless they thought the state was truly in play. Some recent polling supports their optimism.

Democracy Corps, the polling firm run by Clintonites Stan Greenberg and James Carville, just surveyed the state and found Obama and McCain are neck and neck, with libertarian Bob Barr drawing several points.

Locals say Obama “will do a better job than McCain on the economy and jobs” by 52 to 38 percent.

Even more striking, the firm’s memo, North Carolina Open to Democrats in 2008, states,  “Obama holds a small advantage over McCain on taxes, 46 to 41 percent, a remarkable finding for a Democrat in North Carolina.”

Tar Heel voters say the country is on the wrong track by 68 to 22 percent — less than the country as a whole but still a strong majority.

Both presidential candidates now promise change, of course, but Obama can benefit more from antipathy for Republican federal policy in a state that’s been backing the status quo for a long time.

Footage from Obama Campaign YouTube channel, “Barack calls on North Carolina.”

With research by Aaron Wiener.

The Democratic presidential nominee also reprised several lines from his nomination acceptance speech, ridiculing the Republicans’ “ownership society” as code for “you’re on your own,” and contending that McCain simply “doesn’t get it.”

Obama’s aides are working hard to burnish his Virginia credentials. Today’s rally included introductions by several local figures. The most famous, bluegrass legend Ralph Stanley, announced his endorsement in remarks before the rally.

Prudence Dillon, 34, a teacher and mother of four, spoke about why Obama inspired her to volunteer in politics for the first time. Two other speakers touted Obama’s commitment to coal and local party-building, noting that he made more visits to Virginia than any other Democratic nominee.

One speaker went on a tear defending community organizers against Republican attacks, noting that Martin Luther King Jr. and Jesus were organizers.

Virgina legend Dr. Ralph Stanley endorsed Obama on Tuesday. (Photo credit: Matt Knoth)

“We are the Saudi Arabia of coal,” riffed Obama, as he promised to find a way to “burn coal” with “clean energy technologies.” He also repeated his pledge to take the $10 billion that America is spending in Iraq and invest it at home, drawing a standing ovation.

Obama’s Virginia effort strives for intimacy rather than stadium rallies. He not only took questions at the gym event — about stem-cell research, rural poverty and health care — but also stopped by a shake shop in Abingdon to mingle with a mere handful of customers.

There Obama happened on another legend, the 76-year-old “Big Daddy Garlits,” whom the senator recognized.

From the pool report:

‘This is the father of drag racing, right here!’ Mr. Obama said, introducing Mr. Garlits to the cameras. [Garlits] is known as the pioneer of drag racing for a career that spanned from 1950 to 2003. (He said he retired five years ago, ending with a 310 m.p.h. race.) He lives in Ocala, Fla., but he and his wife were visiting their daughter and came to Ellis Soda Shoppe for some ice cream…. [Garlits later noted that] he was mighty impressed with Mr. Obama and had watched his announcement speech in Springfield and his convention speech in Denver. A lifelong Republican, he said he was frustrated with Washington and undecided between Mr. Obama and Senator John McCain.

Obama was also asked about GOP attempts to ignite a “culture war” over Gov. Sarah Palin’s family. Obama reiterated that candidate’s familes are “off limits,” noting they were “civilians who didn’t choose to run for office.”

Even as the senator spoke, however, the McCain campaign was launching another salvo in cultural combat, disingenously claiming Obama supported “comprehensive sex education” for kindergartners.

Tuesday evening, Obama spokesperson Bill Burton called the attack “shameful and perverse,” explaining that the relevant legislation was actually designed to “protect young children from sexual predators.” “John McCain told Time magazine he couldn’t define what honor was,” Burton added. “Now we know why.”

Finally, Obama’s last question at the gym rally came from a 6th-grader named Payton, who wanted to know how the senator might bring down gas prices. Comitting to tell voters what they “need to hear,” Obama said gas prices weren’t returning to $2 a gallon, and the “only way we can really bring gas prices down long term” is to “start using energy differently,” as his energy plan proposes. (TWI background here.)

Obama’s September push shows he is serious about winning Virginia — which hasn’t voted for a Democratic president since 1964. The formula is relentless offense on economic populism — and swift defense against the cultural attacks that have bloodied so many Democrats here.

On Tuesday, the formula looked good enough to have Virginia Democrats pondering victory for the first time in generations.