The discrepancy was the result of human error. Waukesha County, home to Brookfield, stores election results in an electronic database. County Clerk Kathy Nickolaus said Thursday:

It’s important to stress that this is not a case of extra votes or extra ballots being found. this is human error, which I apologize for – which is common in this process, which is why the state requires us to conduct a canvass. Every person in Waukesha County that voted on April 5th, their votes counted. After the error was discovered in Brookfield, I reviewed all the other votes with our board of canvass, from every municipality. We have now verified all the results, and are confident that they have been properly reported to the Government Accountability Board.

Nickolaus says that she had failed to properly log the votes in the Microsoft Access database she uses to keep track of election results. Her system of using a database that she alone has access to has come under fire in the past. When asked last year by a county auditing board to consider using an online system that would allow other Waukesha County employees to view election results, Nickolaus said only that she would consider doing so. She was reprimanded at the meeting for simply grinning when asked to make the Waukesha election process more transparent.

Nickolaus’s unfettered and exclusive access to county election results, along with her political leanings, have led some to question the integrity of the new votes that she reported. Wisconsin State Journal reporter Mary Spicuzza said on Twitter:

Kathy Nickolaus worked for Assembly Republican Caucus when Prosser was Speaker. Caucus is controlled by speaker, so he is her former boss.

The Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel reports that the caucus was one of several shut down as a result of ethics investigations. Nickolaus is also the president emeritus of the Republican Women of Waukesha County. Democrats on the board that reviewed election results, however, believe Nickolaus’s account.

Election reform advocate Brad Friedman reports on his blog that unless allegations of fraud are formally made, the results will likely remain official. Under Wisconsin law, the state is required to pay for a recount only if the margin of victory is within 0.5 percent. With approximately 1.5 million ballots coming in this election, the 7,582 new votes put Prosser a fraction of a percentage point over 0.5 (.0505 to be precise), meaning Kloppenburg would have to foot the bill herself if she wants to seek a recount.

If the recount process and subsequent litigation drag out through the beginning of 2011, current Gov. Tim Pawlenty will remain in office until a winner is certified. After Republicans gained control of both the state House and Senate on Tuesday, a prolonged recount battle and continual lawsuits could play to the GOP’s favor, allowing the legislature to pass conservative bills with a friendly face in the governor’s mansion before Dayton could possibly take the seat.

Pawlenty’s office did not return requests for comment on the article, but the governor addressed questions from the state press corps late Thursday afternoon. He once again affirmed he will not abdicate his role if no winner is declared by Jan. 3 — the date when the next governor is currently scheduled to assume office — but stayed mostly mum on the details of how he would operate if that situation occurs.

“In the event that it goes beyond Jan. 3, and again I hope it does not, then I will address matters as they arise and as they need to be addressed but obviously we will just be addressing those things as they need to be addressed and as they arise,” Pawlenty said in his opening remarks at the press conference. He continued to use the same language in response to most of the questions posed to him. He continually hedged and never satisfyingly defined what he meant with his most frequently used term, “arise.”

“If an emergency were to take place for example and I needed to call in the national guard I would certainly do that, or respond to an emergency. If something were presented to me that required action or lack of action or a signature or a decision, I would certainly undertake that,” Pawlenty said.

So Pawlenty himself might not push new legislation — at least not publicly — during this potential period of limbo, but a newly empowered Republican majority might not hold the same reservations. Based on Pawlenty’s statement on signatures and decisions, it seems he has not ruled out signing new bills that come across his desk. The conservative legislature could become proactive, passing numerous conservative bills that a Gov. Dayton would be inclined to veto.

Even if the House and Senate decide to wait until the recount concludes to begin crafting their legislation, Pawlenty would quickly face key decisions if his stay in the governor’s mansion continues through January. The governor must present a budget in early February, and as part of a deal between Republicans and Democrats during the last legislative session, there is a Jan. 15 deadline for the next governor to decide whether to opt-in to an early Medicaid enrollment program with the federal government. That choice would fall to Pawlenty if litigation prolongs the recount.

At the press conference, the governor reasserted his opposition to the program, indicating that the state would not accept the funds if he remains in office. “I’ve already made that decision as for me and my administration and as long as I’m here that will remain,” Pawlenty said. He pointed out that despite the current deadline, the legislative body has the option of changing it.

“It’s in the hands of the next legislature and the next governor to alter that in any way that they want,” he said. However, a Republican controlled House and Senate would be unlikely to allow any governor to have that choice again.

While Pawlenty was less than clear about how he will act if his tenure is extend, the governor did clearly state his preference for the recount situation to be resolved by the beginning of 2011. “I earnestly, genuinely, sincerely hope this is resolved by Jan. 3. It is not in anyone’s best interest to have this spill over and have a holdover situation. I hope that doesn’t happen, but in the unlikely event that it does, I will fulfill the responsibilities as required by the constitution. Not because I want to, but because I am required to,” Pawlenty said.

Prolonging his stay in office may be beneficial to implementing policies favored by state Republicans, but it could also interfere with the timing of Pawlenty’s probable 2012 presidential bid.

Whether Pawlenty gets his wish of leaving office in two months will be decided by the state parties, and whether they choose to file lawsuits challenging the results of the recount. On Friday, the secretary of state released a proposed time line for any possible recount. The process would begin on Nov. 29, and results would be settled by Dec. 14. That would leave little time for a gubernatorial transition, but would still allow Pawlenty to leave office on schedule. But with such high stakes in the race, either party is likely to extend the recount process through litigation, dragging the ordeal into 2011.

MPR captured video of the whole press conference:

Pawlenty preser on transition from tommy scheck on Vimeo.

Patrick Caldwell is a reporter for The American Independent.

Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R-Minn.) campaigns for Tom Emmer on Oct. 30 in Anoka, Minn. (Minneapolis Star Tribune/ZUMApress.com)

Haunted by memories of the 2008 Senate election between Norm Coleman and Al Franken, Minnesota is bracing for yet another contentious recount, this time to determine the state’s next governor.

Just as the drawn-out recount in 2008 had national implications — for months, Franken was prevented from becoming the key 60th Democratic vote in the Senate — a delayed decision on the 2010 gubernatorial race would have wide repercussions at both the local and national levels. The state legislature, which flipped to the GOP on Tuesday, could quickly pass conservative bills while the likely Democratic governor, Mark Dayton, waits in limbo. All the while, Republican Gov. Tim Pawlenty finds himself in a unique posturing position before his probable bid for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination.

[Congress1] After all precincts reported their totals on Wednesday, Dayton, a former U.S. senator, held a narrow 43.63 percent to 43.21 percent lead over his Republican opponent, state Rep. Tom Emmer. Tom Horner, a third-party candidate running for the Independence Party, drew 12 percent.

With only 8,856 votes separating Dayton and Emmer, media outlets have held off on calling the race, and so far neither candidate has declared victory or conceded defeat. Vote tallies are unofficial until the State Canvassing Board meets on Nov. 23. Counties will examine their vote totals, and the final numbers could still shift before that date, but as long as Dayton and Emmer remain within 0.5 percent of each other, the state will automatically conduct a recount, likely starting on Nov. 29.

The term for the next governor is scheduled to begin on Jan. 3. If the recount drags on past that date, the constitution calls for the current executive to remain in office. Pawlenty issued a press release Wednesday affirming that he will stay in the governor’s office until a new governor is sworn in. “My administration is fully committed and prepared to accomplish the swift and orderly transition to the next governor as soon as a final determination is made,” the release said. “As required by Article V of the Minnesota Constitution, I will continue to serve as Governor until a new governor takes the oath.”

While the gubernatorial election remains in limbo, Republicans took over both sides of the state legislature this week. Pawlenty faced a hostile Democratic legislature during the entirety of his eight years in office. At times, Democrats held veto-proof majorities, forcing Pawlenty to settle for a limited form of his ideological goals during his tenure. If the final decision on certifying the next governor drags into 2011, Pawlenty and state Republicans could rush through numerous pieces of conservative legislation, allowing the governor to add accomplishments he can tout to the Republican base when he hits the campaign trail in Iowa and New Hampshire next year.

*****

It is unclear exactly how long a recount could last, but the Coleman-Franken scenario from 2008 offers insight into the process. The state declared Franken the initial winner after a hand recount of votes lasted seven weeks. Reforms to the election process and lower turnout in the midterm contest should make for a quicker recount in 2010, likely three to four weeks, according David Schultz, a professor at the Hamline University School of Law in St. Paul.

If that’s the case, the outcome should, theoretically, be known before the end of the year, just in time for the next governor to take the oath on schedule. However, as in 2008, it is not the recount itself but rather subsequent lawsuits that could drag out the final result for months. If the losing candidate chooses to file a lawsuit challenging those results, the state Supreme Court chief justice appoints a three-judge panel to review the complaints. That decision can then be appealed to the state Supreme Court, the highest point it could reach in a state-level election.

Following the 2008 recount, Coleman continued filing lawsuits up the ladder challenging Franken’s victory. The three-judge panel did not make its decision until April 2009, and the Supreme Court’s final ruling did not come down until the end of June, when Franken was finally allowed to assume his seat in the U.S. Senate.

Differences between the current gubernatorial results and 2008 may shorten that judicial window. Unlike the few hundred votes that separated Franken and Coleman, Dayton’s nearly 9,000-vote lead should prove difficult for Emmer to overcome in the recount.

On Wednesday, Jay Weiner, journalist and author of “This Is Not Florida: How Al Franken Won the Minnesota Senate Recount,” detailed changes in Minnesota election law since 2008 that should streamline the process in 2010. “Key among the changes: Absentee ballots this time ’round were viewed and accepted by centralized absentee ballot boards in each county,” Weiner wrote. “No longer did tired poll workers late at night have to quickly determine if absentee ballots followed the various guidelines. Also, signature mismatches, an element in the Senate recounts election contest trial, have been eliminated.”

*****

Even if continuing the recount through lawsuits would be unlikely to change the results this time around, the Republican Party has every reason to extend the process for as long as possible if Dayton appears likely to win. The state party has already taken an aggressive public posture on the recount that indicates it is willing to see the race through.

“The stakes are enormously high in this one, much in the same way they were enormously high with Franken and Coleman,” said Schultz. “I see the same political motives for filing the challenge.”

At a GOP news conference on Wednesday, state GOP Chairman Mark Sutton pushed back against claims that Dayton’s substantial lead constituted a victory. “We’re going to pursue this until we’re absolutely certain that all the votes were counted correctly,” he said.

The state party has hired Washington lawyer Michael Toner, who was the general counsel for the 2000 Bush campaign, an indication that it may already be eying a post-recount lawsuit. “It looks like it’s recount part two,” Sutton said. “And this time it’s personal.” (Toner directed questions to the communications director for the Minnesota Republican Party, who did not return an email seeking comment.)

“This is the exact same rhetoric they were using two years ago,” said Schultz. “They’re starting off with similar strategy … which is to claim voter fraud.” Republican claims of voter fraud were bolstered on election night when Hennepin County, which houses Minneapolis and surrounding suburbs, made a tabulation error and reported too many votes. That mistake was corrected and accounted for, bringing Emmer’s results closer to Dayton’s, but state Republicans have continued to point to it as an indication that Emmer could further close the vote gap.

*****

Would Pawlenty be willing to push conservative bills through a Republican legislature during litigation even if Dayton continues to hold a solid lead in the vote totals? The governor’s communications director did not respond to requests for comment, but in a press release from Pawlenty’s Freedom First PAC, the governor praised the Republican state victories.

“The historic nature of this victory cannot be overstated,” Pawlenty wrote. “For the first time since legislative races were partisan, Republicans will now have majorities in both the state House and Senate. This is a great validation of our work over the last eight years to cut spending and keep a lid on taxes.”

Pawlenty’s statement is in line with other Republican attempts to frame the legislative victories as a governing mandate granted by voters even if the party loses the gubernatorial race. If party officials truly view the results in those terms, they would likely feel justified pushing their agenda while they still have a friendly face in the governor’s office.

“There may be powerful incentive for the Republicans to want to enact and do things very, very quickly during that time period,” Schultz said. “Get a budget passed, do all kinds of stuff when they’re guaranteed of having a Republican majority and a Republican governor.”

Pawlenty has said he will make a decision on his presidential campaign sometime during the first quarter of 2011; he chose not to seek a third term so that he could begin building his campaign infrastructure and spend more time in early voting states such as Iowa and New Hampshire. An extended recount would delay his ability to implement those plans, but it would also allow Pawlenty to build his conservative legislative credentials in ways previously blocked by a Democratic-controlled House and Senate.

Traditional Republican priorities of lower taxes and conservative social policies would likely be among the first issues addressed. Pawlenty often touts his record of not raising taxes in a liberal state when he visits national media outlets. The opportunity to enact a major tax cut — especially corporate rates that a Gov. Dayton would be unlikely to lower — may be too tempting for Pawlenty to pass up. One idea floated in the past that may surface again is a taxpayer bill of rights, which would essentially only allow Minnesota taxes to be raised if they are put to a popular vote.

Pawlenty and the legislature may also seek to codify a ban on same-sex marriage. Such a move would play well among the base in Iowa, one of the states Pawlenty has invested in most heavily as he eyes 2012. Three Iowa Supreme Court justices lost retention votes on Tuesday after state and national conservatives campaigned against them for their votes in ruling bans on same-sex marriage unconstitutional. Pawlenty praised Iowa’s ouster of the judges, and passing legislation against same-sex marriage in his own state would add credibility to his statements when he speaks to the Republican base.

One issue that would immediately confront Pawlenty if he stays in office past his scheduled exit date would be an opt-in to a federal Medicaid assistance program. As part of the national health care reform legislation, Minnesota has the option of gaining extra federal Medicaid aid by increasing state enrollment. That would require the state to spend an extra $188 million, but the state would be expected to gain $1.4 billion of federal assistance in return. Democrats support the opt-in, while Republicans are opposed. During the budget session last year, the two sides struck a deal: Pawlenty had the option of opting-in last year –- which he declined -– and the next governor would be presented with the same choice when he or she assumed office. Dayton campaigned on taking part in that federal program, but the next governor would have to make that decision by Jan. 15, leaving the choice in Pawlenty’s hands if lawsuits prolong the election.

Patrick Caldwell is a reporter for The American Independent.

If the margin ends up within a half a percentage point — it’s right on the cusp of that now — then state law will mandate a recount, but it may not necessarily come to that. Counties outside Denver like Boulder, which heavily favor Bennet, still have 30 percent of their vote to tally, while Arapahoe, which has thus far favored Bennet as well, has only reported 11 percent of its vote.

No race featured more outside money flowing in than Bennet v. Buck, but in the end the two sides battled largely to a draw. FEC reports show that both candidates faced a barrage of approximately $11 million of negative ads brought against them in the form of independent expenditures, making it one of the most negative races in the country. The pattern of big guns canceling each other out appeared to hold true in most Senate races from Pennsylvania to Illinois to Nevada, where Democratic Party spending was matched by GOP outside groups and the ultimate result was near parity.

Update 11:10 a.m.: With 88 percent of precincts reporting, Bennet has a lead of half a percent. It’s precarious — there’s an automatic recount if the margin of victory is under half a percent — but all of the ballots remaining to be counted are in four counties (Boulder, Arapahoe, Chaffee and San Miguel) where Bennet is currently leading, so it’s looking good for the incumbent.

But how likely is the kind of drawn-out recount and court case that we saw in Minnesota last election cycle? Rob Richie, the Executive Director of a FairVote, which advocates for electoral reform that increases turnout and fair representation, shares the numbers from a forthcoming report conducted by the group that studied every recount between 2000 and 2009. He concludes that the chances are pretty slim:

* A meaningful statewide recount took place once out of every 262 statewide elections in the 10 years of elections from 2000 to 2009: 11 out of 2,884 races. (That would be consistent with just one meaningful recount in U.S. Senate races taking place in this period.)

* Seven additional recounts occurred because of automatic recount laws or requested recounts. Of the 18 total statewide recounts in 2000-2009, the average change in victory margin was 0.027%, or 296 votes.

* Three of these 18 recounts (and three out of the 11 meaningful recounts) resulted in a change in outcome –that’s one out 961 statewide races in this period.

In other words, FairVote calculates that a meaningful statewide Senate recount like Franken-Coleman occurs only about once a decade, while a Senate recount that results in a change in outcome should occur far less frequently than that. With all the allegations of votes being mishandled, miscounted, forgotten or fraudulent, the average change in victory margin during a recount (.027%) seems like a stunningly small figure — and a rebuke to those who allege the current system is rife with either fraud or error.

On the other hand, the study probably didn’t account for the once-in-a-blue-moon credible write-in challenge being posed by Sen. Lisa Murkowski in Alaska’s three-way Senate race. If the results remain close up there, the ballot counting will likely drag on for weeks or months and legal action could easily be right around the corner.

* “In 2008, Norm Coleman was ahead on Election Night by over 700 votes.”

That’s true, but, as with all elections, late arriving ballots and math errors always change Election Night tallies. Only in close elections are we aware of such shaking out of ballot tallies. When the official recount began, Coleman led by 215.

* “Soon, additional ballots were discovered, over 300 of which should have been disqualified as they appear to be have been cast by convicted felons.”

That’s not true. Additional ballots weren’t “discovered” anywhere. And where does the “300″ number of convicted felons come from? Do Democrats only win close elections by fraud? That’s the implication.

* “Yet, Franken was declared the winner by 225 votes out of nearly 2.5 million cast.”

Off a bit. He won by 312 with more than 2.9 million cast.

As for the convicted felons claim, Weiner explains that while it’s not without any merit, it’s most likely overblown. It originates from an allegation made by a conservative group called Minnesota Majority, which recently alleged that thousands of felons cast ballots in the 2008 election:

Not so, said the county prosecutors who examined the Minnesota Majority’s lists. So far, in the state’s largest counties, which include Minneapolis and St. Paul, a total of about 80 felons who are still on probation and who are barred from voting in Minnesota, have been charged. Not all have been convicted. Across the state, there are handfuls more, it seems, not hundreds.

Franken won by 312 votes. There’s no indication there were anywhere near that many who may have registered or voted illegally. Plus, what makes the Republicans think felons only vote for Democrats? In the first such case revealed about the 2008 election, the illegal voter admitted to casting his vote for Coleman.

According to Mark Weiner’s report, the Hoffman campaign is leaving open the option of legal challenges if a recanvass goes Hoffman’s way. I talked to Hoffman’s spokesman Rob Ryan, who said the campaign is keeping its own count, and that lawyers have checked out the polling places that reported the bogus numbers. But he was bearish on the campaign’s chances of a post-facto upset.

“It’s not something I would place a bet on,” said Ryan. “Even if the margin had been 3,000 votes on election night, we would have conceded. We just might have done it later.”

Ryan pinned the confusing initial numbers on bureaucratic snafus, not malice. And he said the campaign only had “longshot odds” of passing Owens when absentee ballots were counted. The reason: Only around 10,000 absentee ballots were requested. If the final margin puts Owens anything like 3,000 votes ahead of Hoffman, Hoffman would need to beat Owens by a 2-1 margin or better among absentee voters. And while Republicans hope that Fort Drum could deliver a huge Hoffman margin in absentee ballots, military personnel only requested 2,299 absentee ballots.

The other factor in the absentee count is, of course, votes for Republican candidate Dede Scozzafava. While Ryan pointed out that Hoffman’s victory scenario always involved a three-way race with Owens and Scozzafava, Democrats pointed out to me that the presence of Scozzafava votes further shrink Hoffman’s margin for error. What if 10,000 people voted absentee and she won 3,000 of their votes? That would force Hoffman to win the remaining ballots by a 5-2 margin in order to pass Owens. That, plus Democratic confidence that they ran a good absentee campaign (as they did in NY-20 this year), closes off Hoffman’s hopes unless there are wild swings in the vote count that make this much, much closer.

UPDATE: I’m hearing that only 6000 absentee ballots total will have been returned. Let’s say Scozzafava won only around 1000 of them–probably quite a bit lower than her actual totals. That would require Hoffman to pick up four of every remaining five absentee ballots.

Over at TWI’s sister site, The Minnesota Independent, Paul Schmelzer has the details:

Coleman — who started out his political life as a Democrat, even “proudly proclaim[ing]” his support for Bill Clinton in 1996, before becoming a Republican — states in a new direct-mail appeal that Specter’s recent change of ID from R to D makes the outcome of the Minnesota Senate race even more important. The Pennsylvania senator’s switch means Democrats are one vote away from a “filibuster-proof liberal majority” and “total, complete, unchecked power,” Roll Call reports (subscription only).

“The stakes have never been this high,” Coleman writes. “Our ability to overturn this flawed recount process — and preserve checks and balances against the near total control of our government by [President Barack] Obama and the Democrats — rests in your hands.”

Funds raised will go toward Coleman’s ongoing legal challenge in the still disputed 2008 race against Al Franken.

However, if potential contributors are only interested in prolonging the court battle to keep Franken from being seated, they might want to hold out. Coleman has requested permission from the Federal Election Commission to use campaign funds for an entirely separate set of legal fees — related to a federal investigation of a campaign donor who allegedly funneled $75,000 in unreported payments to Coleman’s wife.

This is the jaw-dropping part of Manu Raju’s new story on Republicans encouraging former Sen. Norm Coleman (R-Minn.) to continue litigating to keep Al Franken out of the Senate.

[Tom] Erickson, the Coleman campaign spokesman, said Monday that the senator has raised $25 million — only a small portion of which came from online contributions — since Nov. 4 to pay for his bills during the hand recount.

Coleman only raised $23.7 million for the 2008 election, a pile of money he started building six years ago. Obviously, the contribution limits for recounts are higher than the limits for candidates, but it’s still an impressive show of solidarity from Republicans trying to delay the results of an election.

Who won the Senate race? [Numbers in parentheses represent change from December poll]

Al Franken – 47 percent (+31)
Norm Coleman – 35 percent (-32)
Not sure – 18 percent (+1)

There you go: voters think Al Franken won the recount. Since the only precedent for a Senate re-vote was the 1975 New Hampshire mess, where the Democrat who led the recount won the new election, this is more bad news for Coleman.