Rasmussen polled those likely to participate in the Iowa Republican Caucus by telephone, finding that Perry is currently the activists’ first choice with 29 percent. U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney are essentially tied for second place with 18 percent, while U.S. Rep. Ron Paul holds 14 percent. No other candidates rose above the 5 percent mark.

One month ago, prior to Perry officially joining the race, Bachmann and Romney were Iowa frontrunners, Paul was third and Perry ranked fourth.

The telephone survey, conducted on Aug. 31, polled 862 likely Iowa Republican caucus-goers, and has a 3 point margin of error.

The poll found that Perry has 45 percent support among those who self-identify as part of the tea party movement, and that Romney holds a slight 20 to 24 percent lead among those who do not.

Perhaps most importantly, however, is the fact that only 27 percent of all likely Iowa caucus attendees reported being certain of who they would support. As Rasmussen states, “That leaves plenty of room for opinions to shift, particularly if new candidates enter the race.”

A slight majority — 52 percent — of likely U.S. voters said children brought to the U.S. illegally who complete two years of college should get a path to legal status, while 36 percent said these children should not be given an opportunity to become citizens.

Voters were more supportive of paths to citizenship for illegal immigrant who serve in the military: 78 percent said children brought to the U.S. illegally who serve in the military should get a chance to become citizens.

Rasmussen also found many voters believe such a bill would encourage illegal immigration. It’s an argument some Republicans have used, including Rep. Brian Bilbray (R-Calif.) in an op-ed today. Bilbray linked the DREAM Act and other efforts at so-called “amnesty” for illegal immigrants to the death of border-crossers:

When my colleagues talk about providing amnesty (or “a pathway to citizenship”) they become an accessory to these murders. When they support amnesty, introduce bills that provide a pathway to citizenship and, in the most irresponsible of cases, use amnesty to motivate voters, they tell people: ‘work with the cartels and come across our border illegally, for we will eventually give you amnesty and citizenship.’

Widespread support doesn’t mean the DREAM Act will pass its test this afternoon, of course. The Senate will vote at 2:30 p.m. EST on whether to proceed with the defense authorization bill, to which Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid hopes to add the DREAM Act as an amendment.

According to the poll, Vitter would receive 54 percent of the vote and Melancon would receive 33 percent.

Things don’t look good for Melancon, even after Vitter weathered a number of high-profile controversies, most recently when a top aide resigned over domestic violence and drunken driving charges.

“This just in — a poll conducted on a handful of Cubans by The Castro polling group finds that democracy is bad,” one commenter wrote.

Fair enough.

Yesterday, Rasmussen — a conservative polling shop — released the results of a similar survey. Strangely enough, they came up with similar numbers.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 41% of Adults are at least somewhat concerned about their safety in the presence of those who have “concealed carry” gun permits. Fifty-eight percent (58%) don’t share that concern.

But 47% oppose so-called “open carry” laws that would allow citizens to openly wear their guns in public. Forty-one percent (41%) favor laws. Several states are currently wrestling with this issue.

Comments?

Forty-nine percent (49%) of U.S. voters favor their state suing the federal government to fight the requirement in the new national health care plan that every American must obtain health insurance.. 37% disagree and oppose their state suing to challenge that requirement. Fourteen percent (14%) are undecided.

The mandate doesn’t poll well in Rasmussen, and never has. Not clear from the poll: whether or not the critics realize it won’t go into effect until 2014.

Bayh, who was on nobody’s list of endangered Democrats last month, is the sort of senator who found himself endangered in last two elections of the Bush presidency. He regularly visits TV studios to state his concerns with the administration’s policies. But he never really votes against them. Complaints about, for example, how much Congress is spending, are matched with votes for more spending. It’s a tactic that’s sapped Bayh’s credibility with conservatives and angered liberals.

Martha Coakley (D) – 49 (-1)
Scott Brown (R) – 47 (+6)

All of that comes after Coakley, roused from what Democrats admit was a fairly lazy campaign, launched new TV ads.

The really surprising thing about this poll? While Brown has made his campaign explicitly about the chance Massachusetts voters have to block the health care bill, Rasmussen finds a solid majority of voters in support of the bill. According to the internals, 52 percent of voters back “the health care reform plan proposed by President Obama and the congressional Democrats” to only 46 percent who oppose it. A plurality, 41 percent, of voters say the stimulus package has helped the economy–only 23 percent say it’s hurt. Coakley’s bumbling campaign can’t close the deal with an electorate that agrees with her on the issues.

Just 30 percent oppose using such methods on the 23-year-old Nigerian, Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab, who allegedly attempted to blow up a plane en route to Detroit on Christmas Day. Twelve percent are not sure.

Male and younger voters are more supportive of aggressive techniques than women and older voters, and Republicans and independents favor using them more than Democrats, Rasmussen reports.

What’s more, 71 percent of U.S. voters think that Abdulmutallab should be investigated by military authorities as a terrorist, rather than being treated as a civilian. Only 22 percent say he should be treated as a civilian criminal, which is his current status.

Abdulmutallab has been charged with attempting to blow up an aircraft and kill U.S. civilians by federal prosecutors in the Eastern District of Michigan.

Take this latest one Sam Stein reports on for The Huffington Post, showing that 77 percent of Americans think it’s important to have a “choice” between government-run health insurance and private coverage.  That poll comes from Survey USA. Meanwhile, Rasmussen Reports  found just 34 percent of Americans support a health care reform plan without a public option. Okay — so far, so good.

So how is it that Rasmussen’s last poll on health care reform found that only 42 percent of voters supported the Democrats’ proposed health reform plan, when that plan still clearly included a “public option”? Back then (last week), the whole Democratic proposal for health reform was sinking, leading President Obama and some members of his administration to start backing away from the government-run option and proclaiming their newfound flexibility.

Well, that Rasmussen poll referred to the Obama plan as simply “the health care reform plan proposed by President Obama and the congressional Democrats.” It seems significant that none of the Rasmussen questions included the word “choice” in them. And as pollsters for NBC found earlier this week, without the word “choice,” only 43 percent of the public favored “creating a public health care plan administered by the federal government that would compete directly with private health insurance companies.”

Meanwhile, another Rasmussen poll earlier this month found that “51% of the nation’s voters fear the federal government more than private insurance companies.” I guess that’s when they’re not offered a “choice” between the two.

If this confirms anything, it may be that Americans just don’t like to commit. MoveOn.org, which commissioned the SurveyUSA poll and supports the public option, was wise to that.

Still, as Stein notes, when read an actual description of the president’s health care plan (when it still included the public option), 51 percent of SurveyUSA respondents said they “favored” the approach; 43 percent opposed it. Asked the same question by NBC and the Wall Street Journal, 53 percent of respondents said they favored the president’s plan, and 43 percent opposed it.