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	<title>The Washington Independent &#187; rafsanjani</title>
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	<description>National News in Context</description>
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		<title>After Violence, Compromise?</title>
		<link>http://washingtonindependent.com/48470/after-violence-compromise</link>
		<comments>http://washingtonindependent.com/48470/after-violence-compromise#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 24 Jun 2009 14:57:30 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Spencer Ackerman</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Blog (deprecated)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Media]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[National Security]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[iran]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Iranian election]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mahmoud Ahmadinejad]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[mir hussein moussavi]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[rafsan]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[rafsanjani]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://washingtonindependent.com/?p=48470</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/06/13/iran-demonstrations-viole_n_215189.html">Nico Pitney</a>, <a href="http://thelede.blogs.nytimes.com/">Robert Mackey</a> and <a href="http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2009/06/fighting-back-2.html">Andrew Sullivan</a> compile a lot of information this morning about an uptick in violent regime harassment of the Iranian dissidents. It&#8217;s looking increasingly ugly at a critical moment. Even so, over at Time, Tony Karon <a href="http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1906696,00.html">considers</a> whether the protest movement&#8217;s ability to <a href="http://washingtonindependent.com/48470/after-violence-compromise" class="read_more">More...</a></p>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/06/13/iran-demonstrations-viole_n_215189.html">Nico Pitney</a>, <a href="http://thelede.blogs.nytimes.com/">Robert Mackey</a> and <a href="http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2009/06/fighting-back-2.html">Andrew Sullivan</a> compile a lot of information this morning about an uptick in violent regime harassment of the Iranian dissidents. It&#8217;s looking increasingly ugly at a critical moment. Even so, over at Time, Tony Karon <a href="http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1906696,00.html">considers</a> whether the protest movement&#8217;s ability to force the regime&#8217;s hand might still lead the regime to seek a compromise, as it probably won&#8217;t be able to completely suppress all the protesters without losing legitimacy:</p>
<blockquote><p>Such a compromise may be shaped by the battles inside the corridors of          power. The clergy, whose blessings are a key source of legitimacy for the          regime, is clearly divided over the government&#8217;s handling of the election          and its aftermath. Much has been made of the fact that the Assembly of          Experts, the 86-member clerical body that picks the Supreme Leader, also has          the right to remove him from office, and there has been speculation that           former President and Mousavi ally Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, who chairs the Assembly, has been          lobbying clerics to rebuke Khamenei&#8217;s handling of the debacle.          Whatever the reality, there&#8217;s little doubt that many of Iran&#8217;s senior          clerics view Khamenei as having degraded the principle of a clerical          Supreme Leader acting as a guide and arbiter to the regime&#8217;s factional          battles. Khamenei has clearly become a partisan participant.</p></blockquote>
<p>This really does hinge on unknowable questions about the rationality of various regime personages. <span id="more-48470"></span>We don&#8217;t really know what Rafsanjani is doing. But let&#8217;s say he is indeed trying to oust Khamanei. And let&#8217;s further say he succeeds. Would whatever governing arrangement comes <em>next</em> be prepared for a re-vote? What would its relationship be with the security apparatus? How would it consolidate its control if there&#8217;s a sudden ouster? All these questions precede any move for a &#8220;compromise.&#8221; We shouldn&#8217;t presume that an anti-Khamenei Assembly of Experts is necessarily more prepared to compromise, or even has the leverage to offer a compromise that the opposition can accept.</p>
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		<item>
		<title>&#8216;Today Cities Quiet &#8230; Like Martial Law&#8217;</title>
		<link>http://washingtonindependent.com/48165/today-cities-quiet-like-martial-law</link>
		<comments>http://washingtonindependent.com/48165/today-cities-quiet-like-martial-law#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 22 Jun 2009 15:14:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Spencer Ackerman</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Blog (deprecated)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[National Security]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Obama]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[iran]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[iran election]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Lindsey Graham]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mahmoud Ahmadinejad]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[mir huss]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[mir hussein moussavi]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[rafsanjani]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[revolutionary guards]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[tehranbureau]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[<p>So tweets <a href="https://twitter.com/TehranBureau">@TehranBureau</a>, a fascinating source of Iran-opposition news. The New York Times <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/23/world/middleeast/23iran.html?hp">reports</a> that the Revolutionary Guards are vowing to inflict even more violence if the protests don&#8217;t end, despite the Guardian Council&#8217;s <a href="http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/2009/06/another_crack.php?ref=fpblg">admission</a> that 50 cities cast more ballots than had registered voters.</p>
<p>Some more <a href="http://washingtonindependent.com/48165/today-cities-quiet-like-martial-law" class="read_more">More...</a></p>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>So tweets <a href="https://twitter.com/TehranBureau">@TehranBureau</a>, a fascinating source of Iran-opposition news. The New York Times <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/23/world/middleeast/23iran.html?hp">reports</a> that the Revolutionary Guards are vowing to inflict even more violence if the protests don&#8217;t end, despite the Guardian Council&#8217;s <a href="http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/2009/06/another_crack.php?ref=fpblg">admission</a> that 50 cities cast more ballots than had registered voters.</p>
<p>Some more @TehranBureau updates:</p>
<blockquote><p><span><span><a href="https://twitter.com/TehranBureau/status/2279643769">regime</a> blaming all on terrorists backed by west, MEK [Mujahideen e-Khalq, a terrorist group formerly backed by Saddam Hussein]</span></span></p>
<p><span><span><a href="https://twitter.com/TehranBureau/status/2279658642">the rest of the world can help</a> by continuing to spread the word</span></span></p>
<p><span><span><a href="https://twitter.com/TehranBureau/status/2279651136">national tv showed scenes of saturday</a> &#8211; only scenes of protestors attacking security forces<span id="more-48165"></span></span></span></p>
<p><span><span><a href="https://twitter.com/TehranBureau/status/2279676085">their line (regime)</a> is that protestors terrorists funded by west and holligans [sic -- it's a tweet, c'mon. You've never mistyped on Twitter?]</span></span></p>
<p><span><span><a href="https://twitter.com/TehranBureau/status/2279607650">mousavi&#8217;s popularity has soared</a> since his response to khamenei on Friday</span></span></p></blockquote>
<p><span><span>I&#8217;ll keep watching, but so far, @TehranBureau hasn&#8217;t called for the United States to openly side with the opposition. His recommendations &#8212; <a href="https://twitter.com/TehranBureau/status/2279672862">&#8220;</a></span></span><a href="https://twitter.com/TehranBureau/status/2279672862"><span><span>let the regime know the world is watching&#8221;</span></span></a> &#8212; are pretty much in line with what President Obama has been saying, regardless of the <a href="http://www.abcnews.go.com/ThisWeek/Politics/story?id=7891169&amp;page=1">Sunday-show bluster</a> that dismisses concern for the Iranian opposition&#8217;s desires.</p>
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