In Algeria, Al Qaeda in 2006 formally merged with the Algerian Salafist group known as the GPSC to form Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb. The “next generation” of Al Qaeda leaders will emerge from this group, he predicts.

European radicalization is a big deal too, Atwan adds.

He lists statistics on Europe’s approximately 32 million members of the Muslim diaspora.

“When Al Qaeda starts to feel more confident in Afghanistan, new people start to join, and many of them are from Turkey,” he says.

Same goes for recruits from Yemen and North Africa. “You have to feel like [Europe] is facing a future danger,” Atwan says. The situation is rife for “recruiting new cells in Europe,” owing to the inability of European xenophobia to accomodate Muslims as equal citizens.