That’s worth keeping in mind, whenever new housing numbers come out and you try to understand what’s going on. Also, if you somehow hit the lottery, you could snap up a dream house at a bargain. Take a look. My favorite is the house in California, just a five-minute drive from the beach. It won’t sell, despite being priced almost $1 million lower than its initial listing, because there are so many houses even closer to the beach that are better bargains. It’s hard to remember that just a few years ago, buyers would have wildly outbid each other to snag a home a short drive from a California shore.

In McMansionland, a market with a dearth of move-up buyers is giving new meaning to the concept of affordable housing.

Unlike the average seller, however, Marino can throw in a few sweeteners. Like a $1.5 million worth of designer furniture and a signed football.

The former Miami Dolphin first listed the house—about 25 miles west of Fort Lauderdale—three years ago and twice cut the price. Now, Mr. Marino, 47 years old, and his wife, Claire, are asking $13.5 million for the 15,000-square-foot Tuscan home on four acres. They built it in 1998 and among other things put in a new master suite and marble showers. The home has 10 bedrooms, 12 bathrooms and two powder rooms. The property includes two guest houses, a pool, a putting green, a 5,000-bottle wine cellar and a pond stocked with fresh bass.

With three kids in college and a fourth graduating from high school soon, “we’re looking to downsize a little bit,” Mr. Marino says. The former footballer, who retired in 2000, first put the home on the market in 2006 for $15.9 million. Now, the home is being offered fully furnished, says listing agent Giselle Bonetti of One Sotheby’s Realty, which is marketing the property with Quintessentially Estates.

Mr. Marino adds, “I’ll leave one football, how’s that?”

Actually, the fact that famous people can’t sell high-end properties is more than just celebrity gossip. It actually represents a bigger problem in the housing market, which is a lack of move-up buyers — people who already own houses aren’t selling theirs and moving up to bigger and more expensive homes. As Calculated Risk has argued, this will likely clog up the housing market for some time, leading to a sluggish recovery.

That’s something even Dan Marino can’t get around.

While that’s encouraging, one trend that Calculated Risk has been writing about for a while now doesn’t seem to be getting any better — the lack of move-up buyers. Those are homeowners who sell their current abode to buy another home, maybe one with a bigger yard, or extra bedroom, or nicer kitchen.

Those buyers aren’t moving up the way they used to. Most of the action in the housing market involves first-time homebuyers and investors snapping up foreclosed homes are fire-sale prices. More expensive homes in the mid to high-priced range aren’t selling nearly as well, meaning the people who own those homes aren’t going anywhere. The usual trajectory of the housing market — a first-time homebuyer settles in, accumulates equity, buys a second and often more expensive house — is interrupted.

CR cites this explanation from The San Francisco Chronicle:

In a normal real estate market, about 80 percent of buyers are “moving up” or “moving across” – people who sell one home before buying another, said Mark Hanson, principal of Walnut Creek’s the Field Check Group, a mortgage consultant. Remaining purchasers are split between first-time buyers and investors.

In today’s market, about half of buyers are first-timers and a third are investors, leaving just 15 percent of what he calls “organic” buyers. Those first-timers and investors all troll for bargain-basement foreclosures – leaving few buyers who are interested in the homes being sold by “Ma and Pa Homeowner.” That, in turn, leaves Ma and Pa unable to move up to a nicer home. “The organic seller is left out in the cold,” he said.

It also could impact supply down the road, when all those pent-up sellers finally decide to put their homes on the market.

If you want to know if and when the housing market is going to recover, it’s useful to also keep a close eye on what happens to move-up buyers. Until they’re moving up, the market probably isn’t going to be picking up anytime soon, either.