Bill Clinton campaigns with Kendrick Meek in Florida. (The Palm Beach Post/ZUMApress.com)

Days before Florida’s primary, President Obama finally did what Rep. Kendrick Meek’s (D-Fla.) supporters had been begging him to do for some time: He showed up in the Sunshine State and referred to Meek as “the next senator from the state of Florida.”

[Congress1] But the in-person endorsement came with a caveat. On the way to the airport, the President made an unannounced stop with Meek at Jerry’s Famous Deli in South Beach. He bought each of them a corned beef sandwich and cautioned Meek, “Don’t say I never gave you anything.” The tone was playful, but the meaning profound. Meek supporters had criticized the White House for tacitly backing Gov. Charlie Crist, who recently became an independent, in his Senate bid. At the sandwich stop, Obama clearly threw his weight behind the Democrat. In turn, Obama seemed to imply, Meek would need to turn the race around and step forward as a force in the state.

At the primary, Meek lived up to expectations, notching a convincing win over his billionaire Democratic challenger Jeff Greene. But he still faces an uphill battle convincing skeptical Democrats, both in Florida and in Washington, that he’s the only candidate who represents their interests — and, more importantly, that he has a better shot than Crist at beating popular Republican Marco Rubio in November’s three-way race. The congressman’s chances remain slim. But his drawn out battle with Greene appears to have bolstered his support from up north and helped rally Democrats around the battle-tested, if not totally battle-ready, candidate.

Meek has thus far struggled to make his mark in Florida’s chaotic, crowded race. When Crist announced this spring that he was dropping out of the GOP primary and running as an independent, effectively splitting the conservative vote with Rubio, it looked like a blessing for Meek. On the next day, however, Greene decided to challenge Meek for the Democratic nomination and the party was thrown into turmoil. Democrats lacked a dominant candidate, and polls showed Crist off to an early, healthy lead over both Rubio and Meek. As a result, many Democrats, long skeptical about Meek’s chances of extending his base of political support beyond south Florida, either stayed mum or drifted toward Crist.

“Despite Obama carrying the state in 2008, Democrats haven’t been very optimistic about Florida this year from the beginning,” expains Ed Kilgore, managing editor of The Democratic Strategist. “When [Crist] switched and immediately was running ahead of Rubio, that was like a gift.”

Crist sensed the receptiveness among Democrats, and implicitly courted traditional liberal interest groups by vetoing a merit pay bill for teachers and another bill that would have forced women to have an ultrasound before receiving an abortion. He also talked up a conversation he had with Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (Nev.), stoking hopes among liberals that he might caucus with the Democrats if elected.

On top of that, some Democrats in Washington made moves that implied the White House was silently standing behind Crist. And SKDKnickerbocker, a leading polling and communications firm headed by a number of prominent Democratic operatives like Anita Dunn, Obama’s former communications director, gave new life to the whisper campaign when it agreed to take on Crist as a client.

The party faithful reacted with confusion, and sometimes anger. Some Democrats described the SKDKnickerbocker decision as a slap in the face to Meek. The Obama administration dismissed accusations that it was anything other than firmly behind Meek, but anecdotal evidence to the contrary kept fanning the flames. After Senior Advisor David Axelrod refused to explicitly commit the president to campaigning for Meek, members of the Congressional Black Caucus became livid.

“If they do not step up their support for Kendrick, then they cannot expect that I and my allies will support them in 2012,” Rep. Alcee Hastings (D-Fla.) told Politico at the time, right after describing the administration’s treatment of Meek as “poor.”

Then came the news that Democratic pollster and former Hillary Clinton advisor Mark Penn was hosting a Crist fundraiser in his Washington home in early August. The party supported the narrative that Dems were jumping ship for Crist, but it also provoked a backlash among loyalists. “Mark Penn screwed up Hillary Clinton’s campaign and now he’s screwing the party that made him a multimillionaire,” one Democrat, who wishes to remain anonymous because of the sensitivity of the situation, says.

In Florida, the Greene campaign also ginned up shock and anger among Democrats on Meek’s behalf — in no small part because Greene profited from the bust of the housing bubble, which has decimated Florida’s economy. “Because of their fears about Greene and what he represented as a self-funder, the symbolism of his relationship with the housing meltdown, and some of the people around him… a lot of Democratic loyalists have probably gone to Meek’s standard who might not have otherwise,” says Kilgore.

Greene’s profligate spending and sleazy dealings soon provoked a backlash big enough to help consolidate support for Meek among powerful Democrats who couldn’t stand to see Greene’s name on the ticket. The chance that he could spend his way into office forced wavering Dems to show their hand and raise Meek’s profile in the process.

In direct response to Greene’s attempt to spend his way into office, Ben Pollara, a former finance director of Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign in Florida, formed an independent expenditure committee called “Florida Is Not For Sale.” He managed to attract wealthy Florida donors, like real estate mogul Stephen Bittel, who were happy to donate large sums to defeat a man who made millions betting against the housing market.

When it came to attracting big name endorsements and appearances on behalf of Meek, Greene’s involvement had the same effect. While campaign insiders admit the congressman’s relationship with the White House was “rocky” at first, Meek campaign spokesman Adam Sharon says that what mattered more than little slights from Democratic operatives were the appearances that President Obama and former President Clinton eventually made with Meek in the home stretch.

“It definitely sent a strong message to have allies come forward, especially in the primary, to help vis-a-vis the ground game,” argues Sharon. “Jeff Greene helped in terms of accelerating that process.”

Even before winning the primary on Tuesday, Meek’s camp has been busy making the case that it’s now in a better strategic position than Crist to win in November. Crist will be no match for the get-out-the-vote efforts of the party machines, they note, and he’ll get hammered on all sides for being untrustworthy and unprincipled.

“The path to victory is clear,” argues Bittel. “You go after the democratic base, get 37 to 38 percent, and you win. We think Rubio tops out at around 30 percent, and when everyone beats up on Charlie for picking every side of every issue, we think his numbers will drop too.”

Although Meek still trails badly, to some extent recent poll analyses are bearing out his camp’s theories about Crist’s support. “A significant part of Crist’s support among Democratic voters is African-Americans. Crist continues to draw 19 percent of the black vote,” noted Mason-Dixon pollster Brad Coker. “Meek got 68 percent in May and 70 percent in August. Again, once Meek raises his profile by winning the Democratic primary, it is questionable if Crist can continue to draw almost 20 percent of the black vote.”

When it comes to attracting the support of party operatives and donors in Washington, however, a lot could hinge on factors outside Meek’s control — like Democrats’ efforts to maintain a majority in the Senate, and the indications Crist gives as to who he’ll caucus with if he wins.

“For Washingtonians, that’s the ballgame,” notes Kilgore. If it looks like Democrats might be in danger of losing the Senate, all eyes will turn to Florida, Kilgore predicts, and “the more it becomes a pressing question, the more pressure Crist will be under to set out his intentions. Democrats will have to think about the fact that Crist’s been a Republican his whole life — it’s not like he chose to leave — and all things being equal, it’s got to be assumed that he’ll caucus with the Republicans.”

Crist, of course, has no incentive to reveal his hand, and he’s thus far maintained that he’ll caucus “with the people of Florida.” Whether that phrase will continue to reassure Democrats as the contest gets down to the wire remains to be determined, but Meek’s campaign is already trying to use it against him.

“His M.O. is ‘do what’s right for me, first and foremost,’” charges Sharon, previewing a line of attack that’s sure to continue from Meek’s camp. “The answer to who he’ll caucus with, but more broadly what does he stand for, what are his values, is a mystery to people because it’s a mystery to him.”

However many hypotheticals the Meek campaign lays out, however, Democratic fundraisers note that it won’t mean anything unless his poll numbers start climbing steadily, and soon. Most strategists believe the three-way race will effectively become a two-way battle — the casualty being either Meek or Crist, depending on who Democrats think has a better chance of winning the whole thing.

Crist is all too aware of this calculus. When the governor turned up at the St. Petersberg Coliseum in a light rain on Tuesday morning to cast his ballot, reporters prodded him for reasons as to why Democrats should support him in November rather than Meek. “I can win,” he replied.

The debate, keeping in the spirit of the primary battle as a whole, was brutal:

“I was brought up as a kid that if you have nothing good to say you say nothing at all,” billionaire Palm Beach real estate mogul Greene said, wasting no time in calling Meek a failed, career politician and part of the “culture of corruption.”

Rep. Meek in turn called Greene “a bad man,” who mistreats employees, has little track record as a Democrat or Floridian and plenty of shady business dealings: “I have more integrity in my pinky than you have in your whole body.”

The fundraiser, meanwhile, is being hosted by Democratic pollster and former Hillary Clinton senior adviser Mark Penn — and it’s just the latest sign that many Washington Democrats are abandoning both Democratic candidates in favor of Crist. It’s also another slap in the face to Meek:

Ironic that Kendrick Meek worked his tail off for John Kerry — whose media consultant Tad Devine is now helping Jeff Greene — and Clinton, whose top consultant is helping Crist.

No matter how the Democrats are doing, it seems, their top strategists and party elders spend September publicly “worrying” that they look weak — which is weak. Or they lament how their party lost its message — and what could be more off message than advancing media coverage about how “the message has gotten away“? Just describing that is lame, let alone doing it.

Finally, some Democrats gesture towards a supposedly constructive iteration of the September blues, airing their advice in public. For prominent politicos, this is still an absurd tack. Why tell The Washington Post that Democrats “should” attack McCain harder when you could just go ahead and do it? Right there, in your interview with The Post! Parceling out tips through the paper, an indulgent exercise in metapolitics, is not only ineffective, it’s redundant.

Take the “big three” tips from “concerned” Democratic strategists that Mark Halperin announced on ABC’S “World News Sunday.” I pick this example not for its brilliance, but because it is representative of the CW:

1. Stop Focusing on Palin.
2. Attack McCain Harder.
3. Prioritize the Economy.

Starting in reverse, the economy advice is redundant. Obama’s current stump speech prioritizes the economy. His positive ads are all about economic populism — and pocketbook arguments about energy. He’s made economic policy the top priority for his surrogates, from Sen. Joe Biden in Michigan (today) to both Clintons in Florida. Do the Dems who are peddling this advice actually read the paper?

Democratic strategists Bob Shrum and James Carville.

Moving on, yes, everyone wants to hit McCain harder. “Take him out!,” roars the base, from union halls to blog meet-ups to Chelsea fund-raisers. “But don’t go too far,” caution the same political sages, mindful of Obama’s promise of New Politics and the challenges facing non-traditional candidates, from black to brown to female.

Obama and his team have definitely heard it all. They turned up the heat last week, calling McCain a liar and launching more personal attack ads.

At some point, you’d think party strategists would start reinforcing this escalation — even if they want more — emphasizing the heavier fire to reinforce a Tough Obama narrative in the media, rather than undercutting his new attacks by telling Halperin that it’s never enough. But if you thought that, you’d be wrong.

All Sarah, All The Time. Gov. Palin electrified the GOP’s anti-abortion-crazed, media-bashing base and, apparently, boosted McCain’s overall numbers. If a campaign adds one component and pulls ahead, it’s logical that opponents would respond by attacking the source of the new mojo. So the Obama campaign’s pushback on Palin makes sense. Also, are the same Democrats who clammer for more attacks on McCain really asking for less attacks on her?

“Despite speculation that Obama would frame the race as all about McCain,” I reported last week, while traveling with Obama, “he has clearly decided Palin must be diminished before she can be ignored.” That could turn out to be the wrong bet, but in this Palin-powered media environment, it is probably right. She is wowing her base, lying to the press, launching repeated false attacks on Obama — that’s not political behavior you can usually afford to ignore. Even if Democratic strategist Steve Elmendorf tells Obama, through a newspaper, naturally, that he should not talk about Palin “at all.”

The best proof for the Nervous Nellie set, however, is probably a peek at that predictably savage Republican playbook. Here was the G.O.P. response to the selection of John Edwards as soon as it was announced in 2004, per CNN:

EDWARDS DRAWS GOP FIRE
John Kerry’s choice of Senate colleague John Edwards as his running mate drew swift criticism Tuesday from some Republicans…. the Republican National Committee characteriz[ed] Edwards as a “disingenuous, unaccomplished liberal“…. [the] Bush campaign… accus[ed] him and Kerry of voting “against our troops on the front lines”… The GOP also released a torrent of e-mails highlighting issues in which it said the two men had been at odds during the Democratic primaries.

Finally, since public advice is all the rage, here’s my advice for the Democratic strategic class:

1. Stop Focusing on Obama.
2. Attack McCain Harder.
3. Be The Change That You Want to See in the World.