But after the primary vote next Tuesday, will the old McCain come back?

The winner of the GOP primary in Arizona is likely to have a straight shot to the Senate seat, NPR reported yesterday. But first McCain must beat opponent J.D. Hayworth, a former congressman who has attacked McCain for his previous support of immigration reform.

McCain now focuses almost exclusively on border security measures, writing a 10-point border security plan with fellow Arizona Sen. Jon Kyl he said he will continue to push when the Senate returns from recess.

Simple political necessity explains McCain’s shift rightward during the primary, experts told NPR:

“In fairness to the senator,” says longtime Arizona pollster and political analyst Bruce Merrill, “one can look at it two ways. You can question his values and ethics, and say he’s pandering to the right. Or you can look at it as simply understanding the game you have to play to get elected.” Merrill, of Arizona State University, was the pollster for McCain’s 1982 House campaign.

Arizona’s Senate seat will probably go to a Republican; the Democratic candidates have a lower profile and fewer registered voters. This means that McCain could relax some of his campaign-mode messages on immigration.

That’s certainly what Democrats hope will happen. Democrats can’t pass immigration legislation — even the less controversial DREAM Act — without Republican support. Rep. Luis Gutierrez (D-Ill.), at least, seems to think there is a possibility of McCain shifting back to the center after his primary: “I think once we get past the Arizona GOP primary that sparked the recent anti-immigration reform eruption, we will have a chance of getting some of the Republicans in the Senate to also come forward and work with Democrats to get a bill passed,” Gutierrez said in July.

If McCain does return to more moderate views on immigration, the path of fellow Republican Meg Whitman could serve as an example. Though she has a less complicated past on immigration, Whitman, who is running for California governor, shifted from claiming to be “tough as nails” on immigration during her primary to splitting with her party on Arizona’s immigration law. Part of her shift could be a play for Latino voters — Whitman began running Spanish-language ads and other outreach to Latinos after her primary.

McCain could do the same — Latinos make up about 30 percent of Arizona’s population. But Whitman also shows some of the pitfalls to shifting viewpoints on immigration: some members of the GOP are concerned she is not conservative enough, the Los Angeles Times reported today:

“I wish she would keep her promises that she made in the primary,” said Celeste H. Greig, president of the California Republican Assembly, a conservative faction that endorsed Whitman’s and Fiorina’s rivals in the primary campaign.

ALIPAC’s strategy to help defend Arizona from intensive attacks from the nation of Mexico and the Obama administration has been to spread the law to other states to illustrate the popularity and wisdom of the legislation.

“Our ALIPAC activists have been working hard contacting state lawmakers in every state in America asking them to stand up with Arizona,” said William Gheen, President of ALIPAC. “We are very pleased to announce that 22 states are now following Arizona’s lead to pass versions of a law that has the support of 60-81% percent of Americans according to the polls.”

ALIPAC lobbies for anti-illegal immigration legislation in state and local governments. The group calls itself non-partisan, but its endorsement list is pretty one-sided: Of 102 endorsements,  only five are for Democrats. (Four of the five are Blue Dogs.) They also endorsed J.D. Hayworth over Sen. John McCain in the Republican primary in Arizona — and caused him some problems when offensive anti-immigrant language appeared on their site and McCain called for Hayworth to disavow the group.

But it’s unclear what level of credit can be given to ALIPAC for the copycat immigration bills — after all, a majority of Americans support the way Arizona chose to address illegal immigration.

Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) recently launched a new ad linking his right-wing primary challenger, former Arizona Republican Rep. J.D. Hayworth, to Abramoff. And Missouri Democratic Senate candidate Robin Carnahan used McCain’s attacks as a renewed opportunity to hit her Republican opponent Roy Blunt for his ties to the lobbyist-turned-convicted-felon.

Hayworth and Blunt are not the only active politicians to have accepted donations from the tainted lobbyist. In all, 37 current congressional candidates and sitting members of Congress received money from Abramoff, according to a review of campaign finance data by the Center for Responsive Politics.

It’s the same strategy that Republicans are attempting to employ in the case of Rep. Charlie Rangel (D-N.Y.), tying every Democrat who’s received contributions from the embattled representative to his present alleged ethics violations. And with all the mileage that politicians have gotten out of the Abramoff scandal, it looks to be a pretty effective one.

For a full breakdown of all Abramoff’s beneficiaries, the Center for Responsive Politics has a spreadsheet you can download here.

Obama signed into law last week a bill to provide $600 million toward increasing security around the U.S.-Mexico border, a bipartisan bill that Democrats hoped will bring Republicans to the table for immigration reform. Prospects for convincing the Republicans currently in Congress looked bleak, but if Sunday’s rally is any indication, Republican challengers won’t be interested in supporting comprehensive reforms either:

Several speaking to the crowd of more than 400 demanded Congress and President Barack Obama devote more resources to increase border security in remote areas like the site of Sunday’s demonstration southeast of Tucson.

“We are going to force them to do it, because if they don’t, we will not stop screaming,” said former state Sen. Pam Gorman, one of 10 Republicans vying for an open congressional seat in north Phoenix. Gorman carried a handgun in a holster slung over her shoulder as she mingled with demonstrators.

At the same rally, J.D. Hayworth, who is challenging Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) in the Republican primary, said he would help “put an end to amnesty once and for all, to secure our borders, to end any of this misguided talk about open borders.”

The Obama administration has not proposed open borders, and regularly touts its high levels of enforcement. But it seems that message isn’t getting through to the Tea Party.

- J.D. Hayworth and John McCain are still fighting for the “toughest on immigration” title in Arizona.

- Rep. Brian Bilbray (R-Calif.), the head of the House Immigration Reform Caucus, said he thinks President Ronald Reagan’s decision to grant amnesty to illegal immigrants in 1986 caused the large number of deaths by border crossers last year. “You have people up north who don’t understand what a monumental mistake it was to provide amnesty in ’86,” Bilbray told Upshot.

- Federal Judge Susan Bolton heard the Justice Department’s case against Arizona Thursday, but she gave little indication of how she will rule or when. Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer asked Bolton to let the law take effect before she makes a ruling. (It’s set to go into effect July 29.) In the meantime, illegal immigrants are leaving the state.

- ICE officials said Tuesday they will speed up the visa process for performing artists trying to come to the U.S.

- Members of a Mexican American organization called the Brown Berets showed up at a rally supporting SB 1070 in Anaheim, Calif., to scream “Go back to Europe!” The group claims America once belonged to Mexico.

- U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement launched a new online detainee search tool Friday to help family members and lawyers locate people detained by immigration authorities.

- Former Rep. Tom Tancredo called Friday for Obama’s impeachment for failing to adequately enforce border security, a claim based on statements by Sen. Jon Kyl that the senator has since walked back.

- Hundreds of undocumented teens and young adults visited lawmakers as part of a mass mobilization for the DREAM Act, legislation that would help them gain citizenship. Some were arrested after a sit-in at Hart Senate Office Building.

Gutierrez, chairman of Immigration Task Force of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, thinks a quicker timetable is possible — we  just need to get past the Arizona Republican primary. At a House hearing this morning, Gutierrez alluded to the harm Sen. John McCain’s move rightward, prodded by his primary opponent J.D. Hayworth, has done to the debate over immigration:

Even House Republicans say we can get a bill passed in the House this year. Mario and Lincoln Diaz-Balart each stated on a conference call with reporters last week, sponsored by Conservatives for Comprehensive Reform that a bill could pass tomorrow. I think once we get past the Arizona GOP primary that sparked the recent anti-immigration reform eruption, we will have a chance of getting some of the Republicans in the Senate to also come forward and work with Democrats to get a bill passed.

freedomworks.org

Since mid-May, a grinning Glenn Beck has popped up to greet visitors to the FreedomWorks website. Standing in front of his trademark chalkboard, the conservative host is the official face of FreedomWorks’ newest free offering: the “Take America Back! Action Kit.”

[GOP1] Together with a souvenir Gadsden Flag, the Tea Party starter-kit includes an informational DVD explaining the proper “pro-freedom” positions across the wide range of issues on which FreedomWorks is active. This menu of burning concerns, also found on freedomworks.org’s “Issues” page, includes primers on School Choice, Red Tape and Regulation, and even Asbestos Lawsuit Reform. While largely focused with domestic issues, the list also includes subjects of broader scope, such as International Trade and Global Warming.

There is, however, a striking omission in FreedomWorks’ otherwise expansive public agenda: It says nothing about national security or foreign policy. FreedomWorks, the organization most often credited with organizing the revival of an activist conservative grassroots, studiously avoids mention of the country’s two wars, its ballooning defense budget, arms control or the tangle of legal controversy that has outlived the previous administration’s “war on terror”—from Guantanamo to torture.

There is a simple explanation for why FreedomWorks fails to offer a bold new foreign policy agenda alongside its ambitious domestic one. The Tea Party movement for which it claims to speak, despite its sweeping rhetoric of renewal and reclamation, does not appear to have one. Where the Tea Party legions and its spokesmen raucously decry profligacy in domestic spending, they fall silent on the defense budget’s role in fueling deficits in recent years. While the highest-profile Tea Party-approved candidates and politicians agitate for radical redirection on social spending, taxes and the deficit, this boldness stops abruptly at water’s edge.

“My understanding from talking to Tea Party leaders who contact us regularly is that the overriding concerns at this time focus on spending, mounting debt and expanding role of government,” said Bridgett Wagner, Director of Coalition Relations at the Heritage Foundation, a conservative think tank that advocates for a strong defense and an internationalist foreign policy. “The [Tea Party activists] are definitely patriotic and concerned about security and foreign policy issues, but these are not top-tier issues for them at this time.”

To the extent that the diffuse Tea Party movement has a foreign policy vision, there is little to distinguish it from the mainstream Republicanism of the last decade it claims so heartily to disdain.

The campaign platform of Pat Toomey, a Republican Senate candidate in Pennsylvania backed by local Tea Partiers, offers the homiletic belief that America “must have the strongest defensive capabilities in the world.” Without mentioning Iraq or Afghanistan, it goes on to state, “We should not hesitate to take action in defense of our freedom and our American way of life.”

That’s more than interested voters will find in the public platform of Tea Party darling and Florida Senate candidate Marco Rubio, which lacks even a perfunctory section on foreign policy or national security.

“There’s no question that the most pressing issues right now are domestic,” said Alex Burgos, a Rubio spokesman. “We’re talking to an electorate with a 12 percent unemployment rate, so the most dominant topics are going to be jobs, debt and the deficit.” Burgos noted that this does not mean that Rubio does not take foreign policy seriously. “Marco has spoken out on the issues,” added Burgos. “He supported the surge in Afghanistan, opposed canceling missile defense installations in Eastern Europe and supports Israel, as well as tough action against Iran.”

The foreign policy platform of Kentucky senatorial candidate Rand Paul likewise reflects the conventional wisdom of strong-defense conservatism, and fails to approach the radicalism of his domestic policy suggestions. In Arizona, Tea Party-supported Senate hopeful J.D. Hayworth offers a hawkish foreign policy line that could have been written by Dick Cheney. Sen. Jim DeMint (R-S.C.), Glenn Beck’s favorite senator, is yet another new-breed conservative who argues for breaking with the recent Republican past on domestic and economic issues, but on foreign policy sounds like any Bush-boosting Republican senator circa 2005.

When Tea Party heroes do wade into foreign policy issues, they do so at risk of exposing rifts within the ranks. After Sarah Palin began giving speeches under the Tea Party banner that smacked of Cheneyism, many of the Tea Party old guard felt betrayed. The Tea Party activist-theorist A.C. Kleinheider, who had joined the nascent movement as it first began coalescing in the Ron Paul campaign, was just one of those to resign from the movement in disgust.

“The tea party movement is dead, and Sarah Palin drove a stake right through its heart,” Kleinheider wrote following Palin’s keynote to the National Tea Party convention. “The tea party I’m familiar with was concerned more about the collusion of big business and big government than the War in Iraq. The tea party I’m familiar with was more concerned about rejecting the bailout of Wall Street while looking for ways reinvigorate the economy of Main Street than looking for Al-Qaeda. The tea party I’m familiar with seemed more concerned about restoring the Republic at home than Democracy abroad.”

No wonder, then, that groups like FreedomWorks prefer to avoid the subject altogether.

Carly Fiorina, Blanche Lincoln and John McCain (WDCpix, Zuma Press)

To many Americans, the Memorial Day weekend signals the start of summer. For Senate election observers, it marks the onset of a season that will determine the fate of senators at risk of losing their jobs, and of outsiders looking to beat back party favorites. The summer Senate primaries kick off with a slew of tight contests on June 8 and continue through to a referendum on John McCain’s Senate tenure on Aug. 24.

Below, we’ve mapped out which Senate races to keep an eye on between now and Labor Day and why you should be watching:

June 8: Nevada, California, Arkansas Runoff

• NV: Harry Reid has been a GOP target ever since his rise to Majority Leader. Now, Republicans finally get their chance to oust him, six years after they toppled Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle. But first, the GOP must nominate a challenger, and multiple candidates have waging a contentious battle. Republicans in the race include: Sue Lowden, former state party chair; former state Assemblywoman Sharron Angle; and businessman Danny Tarkanian. The party establishment generally favors Lowden, but Angle, boosted by support from the Tea Party, has established herself as a major threat and has already drawn attack ads. Tea Party groups have urged Tarkanian to drop out to help consolidate support for Angle, but that would still leave a bitter primary on the GOP’s hands. While Republican infighting would typically signal good things for Democrats, Reid’s approval ratings (which sit well below 50 percent) mean that regardless of how internecine this primary ends up, Reid remains deeply vulnerable in November. Tea Party favorite Rand Paul defeated party-backed Trey Grayson in the Kentucky Senate primary on May 18; this race will be yet another test of the Republican establishment’s strength against the Tea Party insurgency.

• CA: From a statewide standpoint, California remains a place where Democrats and moderate Republicans reign. That should be an asset for Sen. Barbara Boxer (D), who has served in Congress for nearly 30 years — first as a House member, then, beginning in 1993, as a senator. But so far, Boxer’s path to re-election doesn’t look to be an easy one. President Obama had already made two fundraising appearances for Boxer this year, an indication of where this race is ranked on the White House’s list of election priorities. Republican former Rep. Tom Campbell abandoned his gubernatorial campaign in favor of the Senate race in January, and he quickly established himself as a credible challenger to Republican candidate Carly Fiorina, former CEO of Hewlett-Packard. Chuck DeVore, a state assemblyman who has earned some conservative support, will also be competing in the June 8 GOP primary. Keep tabs on this race to see whether Fiorina can hold onto her recent lead over Campbell and DeVore.

• AR: Arkansas voters on June 8 will decide between incumbent Blanche Lincoln and Lt. Gov. Bill Halter in the Democratic Senate runoff. In the May 18 primary, Lincoln held a narrow two-point lead over Halter, but the 44.5 to 42.5 percent tally meant Lincoln had failed to garner the majority necessary to win outright and avoid a runoff. History suggests Lincoln may have a tough runoff fight ahead. Even if she wins her party’s nomination, current polling shows that the general election will a steep climb. Tune in to find out if Democratic efforts to save one of their own actually pay off in Arkansas.

Aug. 3: Kansas

• KS: It’s a battle between House members in Kansas. Republican Reps. Jerry Moran and Todd Tiahrt are forgoing House re-election bids to compete for the Senate seat being vacated by Sen. Sam Brownback (R), who is vying for governor. Moran and Tiahrt are both longtime lawmakers looking to distinguish themselves in the race by touting their conservative credentials. They’ve jockeyed for conservative endorsements and sparred on multiple issues, including a notable fight over taxes in May. But it’s no wonder this race has devolved into a slugfest. The GOP primary is the marquee race for the U.S. Senate in the state — Kansas voters haven’t elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1932. Watch this primary to see what it takes to win in a contest featuring two candidates who are closely matched in experience and ideology. The prize, in all likelihood, is a ticket to Washington.

Aug. 10: Colorado

• CO: Senators typically have six years to establish themselves in Congress and build ties to their constituencies before they’re up for re-election. Not Colorado’s junior senator, Michael Bennet (D). Bennet was appointed in January to fill the seat of Ken Salazar (D), who was tapped as Interior Secretary. Bennet faces a primary challenge from Andrew Romanoff, a former state House speaker, who placed first among state delegates at the party’s May convention. But that convention was only used to determine ballot placement. If Bennet does survive the primary, a difficult general election contest still separates him from re-election. On the GOP side, former Lt. Gov. Jane Norton (R) faces a challenge from Ken Buck, a Weld County prosecutor who has the backing of Tea Party groups. Former state Sen. Tom Wiens dropped out of the GOP race in May to consolidate conservative support behind Buck. The GOP primary is one to watch because of the Norton/Buck battle. Will the Tea Party throw out another establishment candidate?

Aug. 24: Arizona

• AZ: Further down the line is Arizona’s Aug. 24 primary. There, Sen. John McCain finds himself up for re-election for the first time since his failed bid for the presidency in 2008, and it appears that his time on the national stage has done little to improve his standing back home. McCain faces a strong challenge in the Republican primary from J.D. Hayworth, who served in the House from 1995 to 2007. In May, the back-and-forth between the candidates was focused on McCain portraying Hayworth as inept and Hayworth characterizing McCain as not conservative enough for his constituents. McCain held a lead over Hayworth in late May, but with several months to go before the primary, it’s difficult to tell whether that trend will continue. If Hayworth continues to fall in the polls ahead of this primary, it won’t be much of a race to watch. But if the former congressman keeps it competitive, this will be a major test of GOP infighting with a former presidential nominee front and center.

“If you enforce the law, people will obey the law,” Hayworth told the Thunder Mountain Republican Women, praising a strict new statute designed to curb illegal immigration. In a closely watched campaign increasingly defined by who can take the hardest line, Hayworth is a border hawk who called his book about immigration policy, “Whatever It Takes.”

And the thought of a Hayworth upset has some Democratic strategists drooling — with good reason. An April poll has Democrat Rodney Glassman, a relatively unknown Tucson city councilman, leading Hayworth by three points in a hypothetical matchup. (By contrast, McCain leads Glassman by 16.)

An internal polling memo out of Glassman’s office is hopeful that the anti-incumbency sentiment that uprooted GOP Sen. Robert Bennett in Utah will also extend to Arizona, noting the baggage Hayworth carries with him after a 12-year run in the House of Representative.

Let’s not forget — Hayworth was named one of the most corrupt members of Congress [by Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington] … and lost his Congressional seat in 2006 in large part due to his corrupt record and his dealings with convicted lobbyist Jack Abramoff.

Still, to be taken at all seriously in this election, Glassman better start raising some cash. The $0 he had in his war chest at the end of March isn’t likely to go very far.

Update: Glassman spokesperson Dawn Teo updates her boss’ finances: ”Rodney seeded the campaign with $250,000 [on] …. April 6th, with the goal of matching that with supporters’ contributions during the first month. We exceeded that goal within 3 weeks.”

Tea Parties Against Amnesty announced in March that they would organize rallies across the country, April 15-17, to show their opposition to any proposed legislation for comprehensive immigration reform.

Americans for Legal Immigration PAC (ALIPAC), an anti-illegal immigration group, today made an announcement to supporters defending the Tea Party against accusations of racism and applauding the upcoming rallies.

A massive amount of new support is rushing into our operations. We have never seen this many new people sign up in our five year history. We want to give a special welcome to all of the new folks who have joined our email alert lists and taken interest of our Tea Party Against Amnesty events April 15-17…

Some of our diverse ALIPAC supporters are not fans of the Tea Party movement, however, they understand that 90% of Tea Party supporters oppose illegal immigration and amnesty with us. Most understand that we need broad coalitions to stop amnesty and reverse illegal immigration.

Some, unfortunately, are buying into the massive negative propaganda assault on the Tea Party movement. All we will say about that right now is that the Tea Party folks are not violent and not racist. They are being attacked in the same way our Border Security Movement has been attacked. They are being attacked because the powers that favor elite rule in America want to stop and divert the political revolution that is growing in America today.

If anyone reading this has any doubts about the Tea Party movement, you should stop listening to CNN and MSNBC and actually go to one of these events and talk with the people there to understand the realities vs. the propaganda.

ALIPAC is proud to stand with other Americans who share our cause of border security and enforcement of our immigration laws, and we will stand up against those who want to assault free speech and freedom of assembly for Americans.

There are currently 52 protest events posted on AgainstAmnesty.com, with 9,482 protest supporters signed up. The rallies will include some well-known Tea Party and anti-immigration speakers, including former Rep. Tom Tancredo, the outspoken founder and co-chairman of border security, anti-immigration PAC Team America; J.D. Hayworth, John McCain’s Republican opponent for U.S. senate; Arizona’s controversial sheriff, Joe Arpaio; and ALIPAC President William Gheen.