A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Arizona voters finds Arpaio, famed for his crackdowns on illegal immigrants, leading Goddard, the state’s current attorney general, by 12 points – 51% to 39%. Seven percent (7%) prefer some other candidate, and four percent (4%) are undecided.

According to the survey, Goddard leads Republican Gov. Jan Brewer by a comfortable nine-point margin, and Goddard is virtually tied with State Treasurer Dean Martin. Brewer is the only one of the possible candidates who is officially in the race.

With numbers like this, could Arpaio be enticed to run for governor? And could he win?

Rumors have been swirling in Arizona for the past few months that Arpaio is mulling a gubernatorial bid, fueled by his antipathy for Goddard. The 77-year-old Arpaio was first elected in 1992, and he won re-election in 2008 by a commanding 13-point margin, with 55 percent of the vote. During that race, Arpaio raised more than $600,000 — an eye-popping sum for a countywide election. Effectively a modern-day political boss, “Sheriff Joe” is well-known for his heavy-handed tactics to combat illegal immigration and bragging about the harsh conditions in county detention facilities. He has launched investigations of numerous political opponents, including Goddard, Phoenix Mayor Phil Gordon, Maricopa County Supervisor Mary Rose Wilcox, the Phoenix New Times and the Maricopa County Superior Court.

While Arpaio remains extremely popular in Maricopa County — the home of Phoenix, Scottsdale and Tempe accounts for approximately 61 percent of Arizona’s population — Goddard has already proven himself in statewide races, having been elected attorney general in 2002, and re-elected in 2006 with 60 percent of the vote (pdf). A poll released last month by the ASU Cronkite School of Journalism and KAET found Arpaio had a 61 percent approval rating among Maricopa County voters, while the same survey found 55 percent of Arizona voters approve of Goddard’s performance. Arizona has been trending Democratic in recent years, but a Gallup poll from January found party identification in the state was essentially a dead heat, and one would be hard-pressed to find anybody in Arizona without a strong opinion about Arpaio.

All of this seems to confirm Rasmussen’s findings: If Arpaio got into the race against Goddard, he would stand a pretty good chance of winning. It’s also a safe bet that Arpaio would raise a lot of money from out-of-state illegal immigration opponents.

The Obama administration has already clashed with Arpaio on a couple of occasions. In March, the Justice Department announced it was opening an investigation into allegations of racial profiling and unlawful searches and seizures, and last month Arpaio was stripped of his authority to enforce federal immigration laws under the controversial 287(g) program.

But if the Justice Department thought Arpaio was a handful as sheriff of Maricopa County, just imagine what he could do with control of the state’s Department of Public Safety, and Republicans in control of both houses of the state legislature.

(Via Eric Kleefeld)

This post has been updated.

… American Progressives and European fascist theorists admired each other and exchanged ideas. From William James to Georges Sorel, from eugenics to the militarization of society (”War on Poverty” anyone? It was William James who penned the “Moral Equivalent of War” in 1906), both the American left and European fascists sought to remake society using crises to urge action to justify bigger government at the expense of individual liberty.

Ronald Reagan had it right in 1981, when he remarked that Roosevelt’s New Deal had much in common with Mussolini’s fascism, including frequent words of praise from Roosevelt’s brain trust directed towards Italy in the 1930s.

Absolutely nothing controversial here from the Tea Party perspective, and the “words of praise” line is accurate. But how will this play in a state that in 2008 gave Barack Obama the biggest Democratic landslide margin since FDR in 1936?

“Tonight, Chris Christie exceeded all expectations by charging to victory in the heart of Democrat country.  I would like to extend my sincere congratulations to Chris on becoming New Jersey’s next governor and in a special way I congratulate Kim Guadagno on becoming New Jersey’s first lieutenant governor.  Governor-elect Christie’s message of lower-taxes and less spending clearly resonated with voters in New Jersey who were looking for a solution to Jon Corzine’s failed economic leadership.  There is no doubt in my mind that Chris and Kim will provide New Jerseyans with the direction they need and will finally make their state more affordable again.

“This election victory that by all accounts should have been a landslide for Democrats is a credit not only to the outstanding campaign that Chris ran, but to the incredible organization that the Republican Party was able to build in the state.  Grassroots operations were set up and thrived in parts of the state that hadn’t heard from the Republican Party in decades.  In the coming election year, we will continue these investments and look forward to reaping the benefits on behalf of hard-working taxpayers.

“In a state that overwhelmingly voted in favor of President Obama, this stunning defeat of Corzine sends a clear message to Democrats across the country.  Americans have grown sick and tired of big government and reckless spending, and this vote is a sound rejection of the far-left policies that are hurting our nation.  While the White House sent their political machine to New Jersey in full force – President Obama and Vice President Biden each campaigning in the state 3 times – even that was not enough to convince voters to ignore the realities of their harmful liberal agenda.  I fully expect this trend to continue in the coming months, and President Obama and Democrats should have reason to fear the upcoming elections in 2010.”

Update: The Associated Press has also declared Christie the winner.

Mr. McDonnell defeated the Democratic candidate, R. Creigh Deeds, an 18-year state senator from rural Bath County in western Virginia.

Republicans cited the victory as a repudiation of the Obama administration and the national Democratic Party’s agenda, especially that of outgoing Gov. Tim Kaine, who serves as the chairman of the Democratic National Committee.

Nonetheless, exit polls conducted by Edison Research on Tuesday showed that support for Mr. Obama had changed little in the state since his victory here in 2008. The polls suggested that many of Mr. Obama’s voters stayed home on Tuesday, allowing Mr. McDonnell to win on strong support among white men and independents and among voters who say they are very worried about the direction of the nation’s economy.

Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Steele dances in the end zone with this statement:

“Tonight, Republicans made history in Virginia.  In a state that had been in the Democrats’ column after the 2008 election – and in DNC Chairman Tim Kaine’s own backyard – Republicans swept all three top state offices in Virginia for the first time since 1997.  These significant victories speak to the fantastic campaigns run by Republicans across the Commonwealth and the voters’ clear rejection of liberal tax and spend policies that Washington Democrats are trying to force on Americans.

“Governor-elect Bob McDonnell’s common-sense conservative message of less spending, lower taxes and more responsible government clearly resonated with voters. His opposition to the Democrats’ plans for higher taxes, government-run health care and a job-killing ‘cap and trade’ bill was rewarded by Virginia voters with a victory tonight. [...]

“The Republican Party’s overwhelming victory in Virginia is a blow to President Obama and the Democrat Party.  It sends a clear signal that voters have had enough of the president’s liberal agenda.  The Republican Party and our grassroots supporters have renewed strength in Virginia, and I look forward to working with Governor-elect McDonnell and Republicans across the state to build on our momentum.”

Doug Hoffman, Bob McDonnell and Chris Christie

WATERTOWN, N.Y. — Conservatives declared victory in the 2009 off-year elections four days before voters went the polls. With the withdrawal of Dede Scozzafava, the embattled moderate Republican candidate, from the special election in New York’s 23rd Congressional District, activists and organizers are toasting a shocking victory over the Republican establishment.

Image by: Matt Mahurin

The hero of the moment is Doug Hoffman, the first-time candidate of the Conservative Party who effectively forced Scozzafava out of the race after national conservative groups like the Club for Growth and the Susan B. Anthony List showered his campaign with cash and staffed it with volunteers. On Sunday night, campaign strategists reacted to Scozzafava’s endorsement of Bill Owens, the Democratic candidate, by projecting confidence and dismissing the efforts Democrats made to win her over. Hoffman’s campaign was cheered by a survey from the North Carolina-based Public Policy Polling showing the candidate easily consolidating Scozzafava’s support. It did not push back against reports that the candidate failed to win over Scozzafava for an endorsement.

“I didn’t reach out to her,” said Hoffman’s spokesman Rob Ryan. “From day one, I haven’t had a thought about Dede Scozzafava unless it was about getting her out of this race.”

Still, conservative activists and Republican strategists told TWI that they were watching the results from NY-23 as part of a picture with at least three other high-profile elections on Tuesday. They are also looking to, and preparing to spin, an all-but-certain victory in Virginia’s statewide races, a possible victory in New Jersey’s gubernatorial election, and Maine ballot measures on tax rates and gay marriage.

In even the most disappointing scenario, where Republicans only gain ground in Virginia, they are getting ready to argue that voters are growing cold on the Democratic agenda and Barack Obama’s vaunted brand. (None of of the conservatives who spoke to TWI mentioned the mayoral election in Atlanta, where Mary Norwood, a onetime Republican activist, is expected to win the first round of voting and head to a runoff. If elected, Norwood would be the first white mayor of Atlanta since Richard Nixon’s presidency.)

“After the 2008 election, [there] was a lot of analysis that this country had made a big seismic shift to left of center,” said Gary Bauer, the president of American Values, and one of the first conservative organizers to endorse Hoffman. “I don’t think anything is going to happen to confirm that analysis. It’s still a right of center country. The ‘blame Bush’ card is getting old.”

Last week, the Los Angeles Times characterized the White House’s optimal election day scenario as a loss for Virginia gubernatorial candidate Deeds, a win for Gov. Jon Corzine (D-N.J.), and a “tie-breaker” Democratic win in NY-23. Conservatives, while optimistic about sweeping every one of these races, gave TWI some reasons why losses in New York, New Jersey and Maine would not necessarily be big defeats for the movement. But all suggested that the night would start out with unalloyed good news for the GOP: sweeping victories in Virginia. Polls in the commonwealth close at 7 p.m., and former Attorney General Robert McDonnell, the GOP’s candidate, leads Deeds by double-digit margins.

“This is a state that Democrats said was going blue, or least purple,” said Grover Norquist, the president of Americans for Tax Reform. “How do they explain it if they lose?”

Republicans are doing what they can to refocus on attention to what, according to polls, could be a Republican landslide. It would happen in a state that the Obama-Biden ticket carried by six points. Last week, RNC Chairman Michael Steele trekked across the Potomac and into Virginia for rallies with the GOP ticket. Victories in the races for governor, lieutenant governor, and attorney general on Tuesday would mark only the second time in history–the first was 1997–when Republicans grabbed control of all three of Virginia’s statewide offices.

Republicans are optimistic, too, about a handful Republican candidates winning back state legislative seats that had fallen to the Democrats over the past few election cycles. One of those candidates, Barbara Comstock, is a powerful Republican lawyer running for a seat in Virginia’s House of Delegates who worked for Mitt Romney’s presidential campaign and the defense teams of both I. Lewis “Scooter” Libby and Tom DeLay. In the summer, her partisan image was seen as a possible impediment to victory. Today, conservatives are hopeful that she’ll be swept in on McDonnell’s coattails.

There is less conservative optimism about New Jersey. It’s a Democratic-leaning state that’s played host to many Republican candidates who lost early poll leads as the electorate moved back to the majority party. Chris Christie, the GOP standard-bearer, has watched a once-commanding lead dwindle into a tie with Corzine. President Obama has repeatedly stumped for Corzine, hitting two of New Jersey’s vote-rich but poor cities in a Sunday campaign swing.

If Christie loses, Republicans have multiple scapegoats at the ready. One is Chris Daggett, a liberal Republican who ran as an independent and trained most of his fire on the GOP candidate. The other, to conservatives, would be Christie himself. He beat Americans for Prosperity state chairman Steve Lonegan in a surprisingly tough summer primary, taking hits from Lonegan for allegedly being too far to the left. At AFP’s “Defending the American Dream” summit held last month in northern Virginia, Lonegan told TWI that Christie was failing to give conservatives a reason to come out and vote. This week, Lonegan has joined Christie on the campaign trail to fire up conservative voters, but this pessimistic spin is at the ready if Corzine pulls out a win.

“If Christie is to win in New Jersey,” said Citizens United President and conservative activist David Bossie, “it would be a good day for America. It would be a rebuke of the establishment that is in complete control of New Jersey politics. But Christie is not really a leading conservative. He’s a good Republican, and he’d do a good job, and his election would be a rebuke to Barack Obama.”

Polls in New Jersey and in Maine close at 8 p.m., and few expect the results for either state to be announced quickly. And polls close at 11 p.m. ET in a special election for Congress in CA-10, a northern California district that Democrats have easily held in the past. Few conservatives give Republican candidate David Harmer a chance there, as Lt. Gov. John Garamendi (D-Calif.), who’s won elections in the state for decades, holds strong leads in polls of the early and absentee voters who make up more than half of California’s electorate. Inevitably, the election will be seen in the context of what happens in NY-23–where polls close at 9 p.m., and where counting could go on for hours. Some Hoffman backers believe that Mike Huckabee, one of few prominent Harmer supporters, endorsed the candidate before he endorsed Hoffman because of Huckabee’s long-standing feud with the Club for Growth.

Heading into Tuesday, most conservatives and Republicans professed optimism about what will happen at the polls. But an alternative take has already been written. Michael Barone, the editor of the Almanac of American Politics a conservative-leaning columnist, told TWI that it would be practically impossible for Democrats to claim significant wins even if they succeed in the White House’s “tiebreaker” scenario.

“If Corzine and Owens win,” said Barone, “they both will have gotten well under Obama’s percentages in those constituencies.”

The main Republican critique of the poll, which contradicts Public Policy Polling and Rasmussen surveys showing Christie ahead, is that it was taken over too long a period. Quinnipiac conducted 1,267 “likely voter” interviews from Oct. 20 through Oct. 26. And the Republican argument is that Christie has recovered in the past few days at the expense of independent candidate Chris Daggett.

The other Republican critique is that this clashes with internal polling (which we won’t get a look at until after the election, if ever) showing Christie in the lead, narrowly, and that Quinnipiac might have over-sampled Democrats. Whatever the case, this poll has Corzine rising above 40 percent to 43 percent, and Christie’s favorable numbers tanking. And both of those elements are essential to the Corzine victory scenario where the incumbent gets near 45 percent of the vote in the three-way race.

I see a little more bad news for Christie here. The smart take on the race is that if Daggett polls around 13 percent or above, Christie loses — the Democratic base is just too large to let Corzine fall below 43 or 44 percent. If Daggett is not fading, and if on Election Day he can stay in the high teens, Christie’s task looks incredibly hard. Also, this poll has Corzine scoring only 74 percent of the African-American vote; most expect him to do at least 10 points better.

The 5% of John McCain’s voters planning to vote for Deeds is actually equal to the 5% of Barack Obama’s voters planning to vote for McDonnell.  But Republicans, on a losing streak in Virginia, appear to be more motivated about heading to the polls at this point three months before the election.

The danger sign for Democrats is that when asked who they supported in 2008, 52 percent of voters said Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) and 41 percent said President Obama. The actual result in 2008? A 53-46 Obama victory. That suggests a dip in Democratic enthusiasm that will hurt the party down the ballot.

Blagojevich — who was impeached in January for allegedly attempting to trade an appointment to President Obama’s vacated senate seat for financial favor — left office in late January, but made the rounds on the daytime television circuit for months defending his innocence.  Harris agreed to cooperate with the federal government as it builds its case against Blagojevich, who is facing 16 counts of fraud, extortion and racketeering, so we could be hearing a lot more from him in the near future.