The group’s political victory fund spent $3,000 on Nov. 4 for telephone calls supporting Republican Cindy Golding. The calls ran from Nov. 4 to Nov. 6.

Cindy Golding

Citizens United has several arms, including a tax-exempt non-profit that focuses on limited government, free-market economics and Judeo-Christian values. It also has a documentary film production and marketing piece, which has made movies with Newt Gingrich, Michele Bachmann and Fred Thompson.

The National Organization for Marriage also made two more independent expenditures on behalf of Golding in recent days, paying for mailings and phone calls on Nov. 3 and 4.

The group spent $1,604 for direct mail on Nov. 3, and $1,539 for phone calls on Nov. 4. Golding is taking on Democrat Liz Mathis, on whose behalf no independent expenditures from outside groups have yet been made.

NOM previously spent $9,757 on Nov. 1 for a direct mailing for Golding in Senate District 18. NOM also spent $9,847 on Oct. 27 and $8,009 on Oct. 18 for direct mailings. On Oct. 20 the group spent $252 for a press release, and on Oct. 21 spent $1,539 for robocalls to 23,683 voters.

Liz Mathis

Social conservative group The Family Leader has also made expenditures on behalf of Golding, totaling $100.

The race is perceived as crucial for advocates and opponents of marriage rights for same-sex couples. Democrats currently control the Iowa Senate, 25 to 24, after Sen. Swati Dandekar (D-Marion) resigned to take a position on the Iowa Utilities Board.

With the Iowa House controlled 60-40 by Republicans, Senate Majority Leader Mike Gronstal has been the key bulwark to stopping debates on the issue.

The Iowa Supreme Court ruled unanimously in 2009 that the Iowa Constitution’s equal protection clause was violated by a legislative ban on same-sex marriage.

Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee “would be the definitive favorite had he been more aggressive about this process, and thus not allowed candidates like [U.S. Rep.] Michele Bachmann to gain some traction, and lost the support of key evangelicals like Danny Carroll and Kent Sorenson.” In addition, now that it seems somewhat more likely that Huckabee will officially enter the 2012 contest, one of our panelists believe the advantage is handed to more establishment candidates like former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich, “because it will further balkanize the more grassroots-favored candidates.”

Such perspectives have been culled from our staff members, additional state political reporters, party activists, academics, elected officials, political consultants and other insiders to create these rankings. While unscientific, the ranks provide insights that cannot be garnered in traditional polling or from any one pundit as to a candidate’s organizational strength in the Hawkeye State.

All those invited to participate are asked to answer one question: “If the Iowa caucus was held tonight, what would be the results?”

The rankings below provide a snapshot in time based on educated guesses and “gut instincts.” Campaigns were evaluated based on personal perceptions and input from others as to the quality of shoe-leather activity, ability to motivate possible caucus attendees and second-choice support. Panelists aren’t provided a specific ballot of potential candidates, and are free to choose from any Republican candidate — rumored or actual.

With all of that in mind, if the caucus was held tonight, this is how we think it would end.

1. Mike Huckabee — The victor of the 2008 GOP Iowa caucuses returns to the top of our rankings for this edition, but only barely. Some of our panelists who had wiped him from their last rankings on a firm belief that he wouldn’t be running — and one panelists who had never listed him for the ranking series on a belief he wasn’t running — suddenly had to reconsider the pastor and why he continues to have so much of a draw with Iowa caucus-goers.

   Huckabee “has a name that people recognize,” said one panelist, while another noted that when you discuss Huckabee “what you see is what you get.” Although still viewed as wishy-washy when it comes to the 2012 contests, most of our panelists view Huckabee as both charismatic and consistent — two qualities seen as sorely lacking in the rest of the potential GOP field.

   “He should have the same support in Iowa, because he’s the same likable person, bringing the same message.”

   What seems to keep Huckabee from totally dominating our Power Rankings week after week is his own apparent hesitation when it comes to 2012, which has subsequently lended itself to many of Huckabee’s key Iowa staff members signing with other candidates. Now that those staffers have gone elsewhere, “he needs to act fast as the activists aren’t going to wait around forever.”

2. Michele Bachmann — Ten of our panelists use some variant of Bachmann “saying all the right things” to describe their justification for placing the Minnesota Republican near the top of their caucus night predictions.

   “In a lot of ways she is like the Sarah Palin of 2012 — coming out of seemingly nowhere and making a big splash, mostly due to her campaign rhetoric. The question is if she can hang on to the momentum or if she has already peaked.”

   Much of what happens to Bachmann in 2012 will not be self-determined, according to our panelists, but will hinge on Huckabee. If he stays away from the race, her fortunes could swell. If he gets into the race, our panelists don’t see this duo as garnering enough support between them to rank first and second on caucus night.

   “Think of Huckabee-Bachmann in Iowa 2012 like Huckabee-Fred Thompson South Carolina 2008. She drains just enough support from Huckabee to deny him the victory.

3. Tim Pawlenty — While many of our panelists spoke of candidate inconsistencies, or the feeling that several are trying to remake themselves publicly as we head into 2012, such feelings were most prevalent as panelists discussed former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty.

   Even while noting two more key Iowa staff pick-ups for Pawlenty — Tracie Gibler and Dane Nealson — and highly effective organizing around the Ames area (home of the Straw Poll) one our panelists notes that it is getting more difficult to look the other way as Pawlenty tries on different hats.

   “Pawlenty gets a plus for showing up at the Des Moines tea party rally in some bad weather. I was willing to given him a pass a couple of weeks ago for channeling Charlie Sheen when talking to the Iowa Federation of College Republicans convention, but he channeled both the “rent is too damn high” guy and Donald Trump (You’re fired.) at the tea party event. Some people can get away with that stuff. I’m not sure Pawlenty is one of them.”

   Most of our panelists agree, however, that the media perception of him being less fiery and uninspiring combined with his low national name recognition is playing a role in this seemingly never-ended persona revamping.

   “[Pawlenty is] still hanging around. Still not exciting.”

   But while acknowledging why Pawlenty is struggling, our Iowa panelists aren’t willing to shrug it off. Most don’t understand why Pawlenty isn’t willing to grab and hold the potential “moderate middle” that seems his natural base.

   Just like Barack Obama during 2008, “Pawlenty will be able to mobilize many volunteers” from Iowa’s neighbor state. “Key places in north Iowa have already been seeing his ads for years.”

   Another panelist notes that he could be “the ‘conservative next door,’ the trustworthy Boy Scout in the race” and that such a strategy “may make a lot of sense when all the dust settles and the moderates are looking for a place to go.”

4. Mitt Romney and Donald Trump — Former Massachusetts Gov. Romney and real estate mogul turned reality television sensation Trump are currently in a dead heat, according to our panelists.

   Romney returns to the rankings for the first time since our first edition in mid-March, largely due to recent polling that shows he continues to be favored by Republicans despite the fact that he hasn’t had much of a presence in the state for 2012.

   “There is obvious loyalty and name recognition that lingers for Romney among Iowans — and I also think that many view him as the one candidate who could effectively run a campaign against Obama’s national machine in 2012. So, as much as Iowa social conservatives would like to put an ideologist out there for the nation, they want to win back the White House even more.”

   Romney’s Achilles’ heel, say our panelists, is the fact that he pushed for a won health care reform in Massachusetts — something that was viewed as a mostly positive talking point for him during 2008.

   “Romney’s solid video announcing his Presidential Exploratory Committee made a good impression on a lot of folks. Romney still has a lot of explaining to do about ‘Romneycare’ and he needs to reassure conservative voters about some of his positions, but the opening is there for him to make some progress. He may not put as much emphasis on Iowa this time around, but he may still do well if the social conservatives are split among several other candidates.”

   “I was surprised by this week’s results of Public Policy Polling, in that between moderates Romney and Pawlenty, voters were more interested in Romney, even though he hasn’t visited the state much this year, and despite Pawlenty’s presence in Iowa he hasn’t made much impact … I will caveat this selection with the fact that once Romney’s name gets tied to Romneycare, as it likely will, I expect he’ll fall in the rankings. That said, the question is if the caucuses were held today, so he makes my list.”

   The same polling that elevated Romney seemed to diminish an Iowa standing for Trump and, in many ways, our rankings show similar results. There was not an overwhelming majority of our panelists who placed Trump in their top five, but those who did overwhelmingly ranked him high — a situation that could be an indicator that Trump is viewed as a viable second-choice by Iowa caucus-goers.

   “We laugh right now [at the thought of Trump becoming president], but a lot of us laughed when Arnold Schwarzenegger ran in California. What Trump is saying right now in the news appeals to both the hard right and the fiscal right.”

   “Despite the slings and arrows of the terrified Republican establishment, the Donald has now surged to or toward the top of most polls. The more the establishment attacks him, the better he looks. Americans are sick of slick and Trump is the beneficiary d’jour of that revulsion. Republicans will turn out in big numbers at an upcoming Republican dinner. This turnout will be the first test of Trump’s appeal to the activist base.”

5. Newt Gingrich — What keeps Gingrich in the Power Rankings week after week isn’t a surge of high-placement by a handful of panelists, but a steady flow of mostly fourth and fifth place predictions from a very diverse group that isn’t convinced Gingrich can claim support among social conservatives so focused on marriage.

   “Gingrich seems very serious about being a candidate, particularly given that he recently hired some Iowa folks for his team. He has the name recognition and gravitas to be a favorite among Republicans. The big question mark with him will be how his political and personal baggage will play. The personal issues will bother some Republicans and both will be used as points of attack by Democrats. The question will be whether Republicans will see him as too vulnerable to such attacks.”

This edition of Power Rankings also so the most mentions ever of Sarah Palin, mostly due to her appearance in Wisconsin. “Sarah again followed up a great week with a low-profile week. This follows a strange pattern in which the biggest Republican celebrity since RR (Ronald Reagan) appears ready to sweep the nomination field with long periods of little apparent activity. But the public is still talking about her appearance before the hostile crowd in Madison and this keeps her in third place.”

U.S. Rep. Ron Paul of Texas also continues to have his following among our panelists, but not enough for this edition to keep him in the top five. “I’m sticking by my prediction that there remains a libertarian bent to some GOP activists in Iowa and I can see Paul galvanize them.”

Former Godfather’s Pizza chief executive and radio talk show host Herman Cain also received more widespread support from our panelists than he ever has previously, but it wasn’t enough to pull him into our top five. “Cain has a small but devoted and hard-working grassroots organization, and might be the most dynamic speaker of the bunch. I don’t think he can win, but he can certainly play spoiler and play a role. He will be heavily courted for his endorsement (and to drop out) down the stretch like Tom Tancredo was in 2008.”

Others that received only passing mentions by our panelists were:

• Ambassador Jon Huntsman — “Huntsman doesn’t stand a chance. He’s too close to the Obama administration.”
• Former Alabama Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore — “He could potentially make a bigger impact if Huckabee weren’t in the race, but the network of pastors across the state he needs to do that is still pretty loyal to Huckabee and/or impressed with Bachmann from what I understand.”
• Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour — “Seems to have fallen off the face of the earth,” and “if anyone sees him they should signal with a flare.” Another panelist joked that Barbour was obviously hanging out with former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum and “arguing over what cabinet position they’d like to hold.”

“I’ve spent my entire life watching government spend more money than it takes in. My entire life I’ve believed this to to be unsustainable,” Johnson said during an interview with The Iowa Independent at a coffee shop in Ames. “I think we’re here, I think we’re here right now. I think we’re on the verge of an imminent financial collapse unless we fix government spending.”

Johnson has been traveling the country with Our America Initiative, a 501(c)4 nonprofit political advocacy committee, spreading that message. He’s made stops in Iowa before, and stirred media speculation about a possible presidential run in 2012. Because of his nonprofit status, however, he refuses to give any clues, other than he wants to speak in Iowa to at least influence the debate when caucus time comes.

Fred Thompson had some legal issues during his campaign for crossing the line over his nonprofit status, Johnson said, “and I hope the fact that he was a 501(c)4 isn’t a portend for how successful this might be.”

His first trial run may come this weekend when he speaks at the Conservative Political Action Conference, or CPAC, and has his name included in the straw poll.

But even if he’s not running for office, at least not yet, he already has a plan for how to trim the deficit, starting with entitlement programs and national defense.

“We’re nation building all over the planet when we have our own nation to build,” Johnson said.

Johnson initially thought the invasion of Afghanistan was totally warranted, with America sending the military to take out Osama Bin Laden and al Qaeda. But they’re not there anymore, he said.

“I would get out Iraq and Afghanistan tomorrow believing that the issues we will face getting out of Iraq and Afghanistan tomorrow will be the same issues that we’ll face 25 years from now, if that’s when we finally decide to get out,” Johnson said. “Worst of all, more service men and women will lose their lives.”

Beyond the Middle East, Johnson says he’s confounded on why the U.S. still has troops in Europe.

“I can’t find anyone who thinks that’s warranted,” he said.

Johnson explained the U.S. is spending 52 cents out of the worldwide dollar on military spending, while China is spending 9 cents of that dollar.

“If we reduce our expenditures to where we’re spending 29 cents of the dollar,” Johnson said, “it’d still be triple of what China’s spending.”

If Johnson does run for the 2012 GOP nomination, he would enter the race with similar platform stances as U.S. Rep. Ron Paul (R-Texas) did in 2008.

The libertarian leaning Paul was the only Republican advocating immediate draw downs of military operations in the Middle East and trimming national defense. And Paul finished ahead of higher-profile candidates like Giuliani and Thompson, and he gained more votes than Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney and John McCain in a primary at least once. He also built the grassroots “Ron Paul Revolution,” laying out a lot of policy stances adopted by tea party groups.

Johnson doesn’t buy the theory that less money means the country is less secure.

“I don’t necessarily agree that by cutting money that we can’t in fact be smart and that we can’t in fact retain a really strong national defense,” Johnson said. “But a national defense as opposed to what seems to be a very strong offense.”

Tackling entitlements

The former New Mexico governor also has his eyes on tackling Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid.

Johnson suggested raising the retirement age and raising the income threshold subject to social security tax.

“A reduction perhaps of some benefits, not big here, just a slight reduction if you will,” he said. “And perhaps a means testing for all of that.”

He said Medicaid and Medicare should be “block granted” — giving states a block grant without mandates from the federal government about how to issue it.

Johnson is perhaps best known for his outspoken advocacy for legalizing marijuana and ending the war on drugs. This is atypical for a Republican, ever since Richard Nixon started the war on drugs, and Ronald Reagan ramped up the effort. And although the Iowa Democratic Party has the idea of decriminalizing marijuana in their party platform, few politicians, if any, seek action on the issue.

During the recession, debate began in some states to legalize and tax marijuana to boost government revenues.

“A to Z, I’m opposed to the drug war, A through Z,” Johnson explained. “Taxes would be part of it, yeah, that’s the T. [And we could] redirect the resources to real crime, as opposed to an arguably victimless crime.”

Like Paul and the tea party crowd, Johnson advocates scrapping entire departments to save the federal government money, such as the Department of Education.

It’s clear Johnson believes if he ran he’d have a chance at success. He points to the fact he was elected, then re-elected in New Mexico, where it’s a two-to-one ratio Democrats to Republicans.

“I’m a Republican, I remain a Republican,” he said. “But I’m flattered by statements that would say these are libertarian ideas. Libertarians don’t get elected to office and I got elected to office. And I’m saying this in the context that these ideas resonate with people when they’re actually implemented.”

Johnson said his experience as governor was built around a cost-benefit analysis for everything. It lead him to oppose the death penalty, not only because mistakes are sometimes made, but because with court proceedings for appeals it’s cheaper to lock someone up for life than to put them to death. He also privatized prisons in New Mexico.

He’s spoken to more than 400 groups in 32 states, including four trips to Iowa. Shortly after the interview in Ames, he left to speak with a tea party group in Mason City. He rode RAGRAI in 2010 and said he plans to ride it again this summer.

When asked about the reception he’s gotten, Johnson said it’s been really good, and if it wasn’t he wouldn’t be here right now.

Gov. Gary Johnson (R-N.M.) on deficit reduction: “Let’s start with the big four” by TylerKingkade

Today, Thompson tweeted a message of support for Brown: “Scott Brown can win and be the vote to keep the dems and health care at bay.” It’s a measure of the support Brown is getting on talk radio, but it’s coming late in the game, and only after polls suggested that Brown was close enough to scare the Democrats. Just like Sen. John McCain’s (R-Ariz.) video endorsement of Brown, it’s a sign that Republicans want to be able to take credit for a close election — but that they’re not ready to put their political capital on the line for a likely defeat. (Democratic candidate Martha Coakley, after spooking some Democrats by holding onto her campaign war chest, is releasing a new TV ad today.)

Via Ben Smith, Thompson says the problem with the Afghanistan war isn’t the seven years that the Bush administration presided over its deep and thorough decline, but the seven weeks that the Obama administration has taken to review how to reverse the Bush administration’s errors. It’s a mystery why that man’s presidential bid didn’t go anywhere.

Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman's final pre-election day speech (David Weigel)

WATERTOWN, N.Y. – Fred Thompson sounded like he was about to choke up. The former Tennessee senator and current conservative radio host, one of the first national political figures to endorse Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman in New York’s 23rd Congressional District, was introducing his candidate at the final pre-election day rally on Monday night.

“Thank goodness we still have that American spirit, from the very beginning of our founding, personified in this man,” said Thompson, “who came from nowhere, when no one gave him a chance, and just said ‘I’m gonna do this, and I’m gonna do the right thing for my country.’ The strength of his courage and what he did and what he’s doing is going to carry us through.” Thompson’s voice quavered a little bit. “It’s going to make him a great congressman.”

[GOP1] With that, a roaring crowd of conservatives were re-introduced to Hoffman. The crowd numbered more than 400, somewhere around twice the size of the one at Democratic candidate Bill Owens’s mid-morning rally with Vice President Joe Biden. The walls of the small event hall in the Watertown Fairground were festooned with “Don’t Tread On Me” and “Liberty or Death” signs; supporters waved placards that read “Save Our Country, Vote Hoffman” and “THANK YOU: John Rich, Fred Thompson, Sarah Palin, Glenn Beck.”

It all led up to a political speech that was notable largely for its meekness. As Hoffman shifted his weight from side to side and glanced down at his notes, he tossed out only two pieces of red meat — an attack on House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and a promise not to let government “take over health care.” With the rest of his time — less than four minutes — Hoffman talked broadly about bringing jobs back to the district. “I’m going to make sure that everything we can do for Fort Drum, we do it,” he said. “I’m going to make sure that, you know, Watertown, with new jobs, new businesses, and new economy, that’s going to carry us through for the next 20, 30, 50 years.” The second statement did not quite make sense, but the crowd roared its approval.

The final day of campaigning in NY-23 was a study in contrasting narratives. Democrats, bolstered by the 11th-hour endorsement of former GOP candidate Dede Scozzafava, hustled to argue that Hoffman was a product of right-wing political extremism with untested views. Conservatives and Republicans, giddy over a turn of events that has turned Hoffman from a gadfly candidate to an undisputed frontrunner, were already expecting victory on Tuesday and embracing this awkward, 59-year-old CPA as the the agent of a Democratic downfall. He was, as one activist at the Watertown rally put it, a “shot across the bow,” the embodiment of the Tea Party movement, a citizen politician whose insurgency would make the GOP honest. A Hoffman victory, said Jeri Thompson, if added to Republican wins in New Jersey and Virginia statewide elections, “would mean the Blue Dog Democrats stiffen their spines and say ‘no way, there’s no way we’re going to vote for health care.”

At the same time, Hoffman’s mellow nature, and his ability to avoid committing to specific conservative policies, have been the cause of amusement in the press corps and in the candidate’s own campaign. In a mid-October interview with TWI, Hoffman had strayed from the dogmatic conservative response to the stimulus–opposing it outright–and mulled over redirecting more stimulus funding to infrastructure and “job credits.” He gave the same response to another reporter. And another reporter told TWI that interview footage of Hoffman was so bland that it wasn’t worth using. After the Watertown rally, Sandy Caligoire, a Hoffman spokesman, argued that Hoffman’s lack of charisma had become a boon to the campaign.

“People look at Obama and they see how a slick politician can turn on them,” said Caligoire. “Doug’s a regular guy. He’s gotten better as the campaign’s gone on, but he’s a regular guy, and I think that appeals to people.”

The gap between Hoffman and his supporters seemed to widen from the beginning of the day to the final rally. In the morning, as Vice President Joe Biden rallied Democrats in Watertown by portraying Hoffman as the candidate of Rush Limbaugh, Sarah Palin, and Tea Party activists, outside, two dozen Hoffman supporters lined the sidewalks with signs that attacked Owens as a “Pelosi puppet” and an agent of ACORN.

“I was at a Tea Party, but this is too slow a process for me,” said John Dewitt, a contractor from Adams, N.Y. “I’m more on the violence side. I’m more of the Civil War, revolutionary kind of guy. I’m of the old school–you kick them in the ass and be done with it.”

The Hoffman backers outside of the Biden event all said they’d attended Tea Parties. Some were affiliated with Glenn Beck’s 9/12 Project. All worried that ACORN was going to show up in the district, or even at the Biden event–a paranoia that led to some minor awkwardness when an African-American Hoffman worker walked by.

“This guy’s with ACORN,” said Dewitt.

“Definitely, not from around here,” said businessman Erik Dunk.

Both men told TWI that they had doubts about President Obama’s religion and commitment to American values. Dewitt said that Obama definitely wasn’t a Christian; Dunk said that when Obama told an interviewer that America’s Muslim population could constitute one of the largest Islamic countries in the world, he changed the sign at his Harley-Davidson dealership to read “This is not a Muslim nation, and Obama is not a Christian.” He took down the sign, reluctantly, after a local university professor complained about it, and singled out the incident as a reason he was worried about losing his freedoms.

Inside the Biden event, Democrats ripped into Hoffman for having welcomed the support of right-wing activists–something Scozzafava herself criticized when she left the race. Again and again, Biden and Owens told the crowd that conservatives had given the voters of NY-23 an ideological candidate instead of a “pragmatic” candidate in the mold of former Rep. John McHugh (R-N.Y.), who left the district when he became Secretary of the Army. While Scozzafava did not appear at the rally, her husband Ron McDougall did, and explained why the prospect of a Hoffman victory pushed him to endorse Owens.

“Hoffman doesn’t have a clue,” said McDougall, He cited a Watertown Daily Times interview with Hoffman–the newspaper reported that Hoffman was flummoxed by questions about funding for a few local projects–as proof that Hoffman didn’t really understand the district. “That speaks for itself. I know he’s not a seasoned politician. Bill Owens is not a seasoned politician, but he understands these issues, and he respects workers’ rights.”

But McDougall, not alone among Democrats, allowed some concern about the ability of labor unions to unite behind Owens. While members of SEIU 1199 were in force at the Watertown rally, the AFL-CIO did not make an endorsement until Scozzafava left the race. That cost Democrats valuable organizing resources while Hoffman was able to build a crusade of conservative activists.

Going into election day, pollsters have been thrown by the rapid-fire sequence of events that began with Scozzafada’s Saturday morning withdrawal from the race–a circus that’s led to what polling analyst Nate Silver called a “perfect storm of uncertainty.” The New York-based Siena Poll, considered the leading authority on the region, found Hoffman leading Owens by 5 points on Monday, with the Conservative Party consolidating Republican votes while Owens won Democrats and–narrowly–independents.

The reasons for Hoffman’s success are visible throughout the Watertown area. Dozens of pro-life activists have settled here–and in other urban centers–and adopted Hoffman as their own. The pro-life Susan B. Anthony List, which got into the race to oppose the pro-abortion rights Scozzafava, and has eight full-time organizers embedded in the district, has produced its own literature and sample ballots for anti-abortion rights Hoffman. In the run-up to election day, hundreds of students of college age and younger have been tasked with handing that out and having conversations with voters to convince them to back the Conservative candidate. On Monday afternoon, around 24 of those activists took a break from the canvass stood on the intersection of State and Columbus in Watertown. They drew slogans on signboards, then hoisted them up for passing cars, bearing slogans like “Dede’s Out, Vote Hoffman” and “Vote for Life.”

“I prayed on Saturday morning for Doug Hoffman,” said James Flath. A student at Patrick Henry College, he was one of many organizers for Generation Joshua, a pro-home schooling group whose younger members worked with older students to get out the vote. “That was the day that Scozzafava dropped out. I passed up a five-day weekend to be here–I wouldn’t miss this for anything.”

As Flath spoke, an array of hyped-up kids waved their signs and screamed whenever a car honked–which was often. “Vote for Hoffman!” yelled a young activist named Colin Zweigle, who flashed rock and roll “devil horns” at everyone who honked. “I’ll give you love, America!”

Throughout it all, the candidate himself stayed demure. At a meet-and-greet at a VFW hall, Hoffman posed for photos, signed autographs on beer coasters, and had variations of the same conversation with staunch supporters.

“How much will that coaster be worth when you run for president?” asked one supporter.

“Oh,” said Hoffman. “Thanks!” When Republican activist Bart Bonner pulled Hoffman aside to tell him how proud he was of Hoffman for “kicking ass,” Hoffman smiled sheepishly. “Don’t get too angry!”

But as Hoffman had bemused conversations, Fred Thompson told them the NY-23 race was “important to America,” and that “everyone is watching what happens here.” In a quick interview with TWI, Hoffman, obviously buoyed from the support of his newfound conservative movement supporters, Hoffman remained low-key. While multiple Hoffman volunteers had told TWI they were worried about ACORN interfering in the election–his own campaign has charged that ACORN will try to steal the election in northeastern Clinton County–Hoffman only said that he’d been “too busy” to notice what they were up to, although he knew they were “on the ground.” Asked to respond to the vice president’s charge that he wouldn’t be able to make any decisions that offended Rush Limbaugh, Hoffman shrugged and reached for his talking points.

“Well, I started this race a long time before Rush started talking about me,” he said. “I’m a common sense conservative and a Reagan Republican, and common sense says you don’t spend money you don’t have, and high taxes kill jobs and stifle business growth and jobs.”

Later in the day, Hoffman fielded another question about Limbaugh from Jude Seymour of the Watertown Daily Times. Asked whether he agreed with Limbaugh’s remarks that Scozzafava had committed “beastiality” by “screwing every RINO (Republican in Name Only),” Hoffman was taken aback. “I’d have to talk with him first,” he said. “I don’t know–that’s Rush Limbaugh. I have no comment to that.” Conservative reporters immediately chastised Seymour for asking the question.

Those questions aren’t quite as tricky for Hoffman’s supporters. Jeff Graham, the independent mayor of Watertown, told TWI that he endorsed Hoffman in part because of the attention that would come if he got elected. The embrace of right-wing talkers was more amusing than anything else.

“For Biden to say that Rush Limbaugh picked Doug Hoffman is ridiculous,” laughed Graham. “We all know it was Glenn Beck.”

The sell here is that a vote for Hoffman is a vote to “send Washington a message.” Indeed, Hoffman is concentrating more and more on that and on conservative issues (like attacking ACORN), to ramp up conservative turnout and to win crossover votes.

Hoffman has become something of a conservative cause celebre. After the local GOP nominated a liberal Republican assemblywoman for the special election, Ken Tomlinson penned an article about Hoffman arguing that he, like one-term Sen. Jim Buckley (R-N.Y.), could beat the establishment and take the seat. Hoffman would join the GOP caucus if elected; the danger for Republicans is that he splits the vote and allows Democratic candidate Bill Owens to win. Even though Owens is considerably to the right of the average Democrat, that would be a boost to the White House.

Thompson, the former Tennessee senator who ran for president in 2008, got his start in politics as a lawyer for the special committee investigating Watergate, so the “enemies list” joke is pretty resonant here. He’s one of the real losers of the new campaign book “The Battle for America 2008″ by Dan Balz and Haynes Johnson. Short version: Thompson drove his own campaign into the ground through a combination of arrogance and laziness.