Charlie Crist – 47 percent (-10)
Marco Rubio – 37 percent (+26)

Likely Democratic candidate Rep. Kendrick Meek (D-Fla.), according to Kos, is a non-factor in the general election.

After the jump, check out the ads.

First, Rubio:

Now, Obama:

Notice that the equivalent of the picture with Bush is a picture of Crist with Obama.

We have observed in recent weeks an unprecedented series of reports and events in the media which cast negative perceptions of the Republican Party, both to the public and to our members.  While many factors may be involved in the various circumstances, our members and the public are receiving continuing negative reports about issues involving financing, candidates, political activities and more, concerning the Republican Party.  This has been, and continues to be, extremely damaging to our Party, our candidates, and our members.

Via Stacy McCain, who says the more serious allegations of the rebel faction concern an alleged Ponzi scheme involving Crist’s financial backer Scott Rothstein.

Shannon — who has been Assistant Secretary of State for Western Hemisphere Affairs since 2005 — was nominated in May.

Gov. Charlie Crist (R-Fla.) – 50 (-5)
Marco Rubio – 35 (+9)

The same poll finds President Obama’s approval ticking up slightly and Rubio narrowly trailing Rep. Kendrick Meek (D-Fla.), the likely Democratic nominee who’s gotten a second look now that he might not be facing the popular governor next November.

Back in May, I pointed to Rubio and to California Assemblyman Chuck DeVore as conservative dark horses with Tea Party support who could upset Republicans’ plans. And today Rubio is trailing the GOP’s preferred candidate by 15 points, while DeVore is in a dead heat with the party’s favorite in California.

Give that Rubio has been up to 40 points behind Crist in other polls, and given that Crist’s sky-high approval numbers are falling with the bad Florida economy, this is a credible rumor that’s going to keep up national conservative interest in beating Crist.

h/t: The Hill.

Harsh questioning by Republicans of then-Supreme Court nominee Sonia Sotomayor, confirmed earlier this month, has likely soured some Latinos on the GOP, and the warnings from conservative restrictionist groups that universal health care will waste taxpayer money on illegal immigrants hasn’t helped.

Florida Governor Charlie Crist chose LeMieux, his former chief of staff and close friend, to fill the seat of retiring GOP Sen. Mel Martinez, who’s long been a strong advocate of immigration reform. Because LeMieux has never before held office, it’s hard to know how he’ll address this issue — a huge one in Florida.

Frank Sharry, Executive Director of America’s Voice, said in a statement released today:

“All across America, the Republican Party’s rhetoric and actions on immigration reform have sent Latino voters into the Democratic camp these past several years.  In the 2008 Presidential race, the Latino vote in Florida swung 27 points from Republican to Democrat compared to 2004, and immigration reform is a defining issue for this group of voters.  Martinez was right to point his Party toward a new direction, and all eyes are on Governor Crist and George LeMieux to see if they will follow through and embrace a more inclusive stance on issues of importance to this group—issues like comprehensive immigration reform.”

Long answer: Retiring Sen. Mel Martinez (R-Fla.) has been a moderate voice on environmental policy — he voted for cloture on the Lieberman-Warner cap-and-trade bill last year — and his departure could deprive Democrats of one of their few potential Republican allies on this issue. Odds are that the environmentally friendly Gov. Charlie Crist (R-Fla.) will end up taking Martinez’s seat, but not until January 2011, well past when Democrats hope to enact climate legislation.

In the interim, Florida’s junior senator will be George LeMieux, a close Crist ally appointed today by the governor to fill Martinez’s seat. LeMieux doesn’t have a legislative record, but he’s broadcast his views in other ways. Ben Wessel at 1Sky has compiled some of his writings on climate policy, most of which are pretty favorable toward cap-and-trade. For instance, in the Palm Beach Post, he wrote about climate change:

There might have been a time where the jury was out, but the jury is in now, and we know this is an issue. We can’t afford to ignore it and be wrong.

And on his blog, he wrote:

Florida’s clean energy economy should be among the top in the nation … it is important to look at alternative energy solutions and build a foundation that will have a positive long-term impact on Florida’s economy.

Yet LeMieux’s primary loyalty seems to be to Crist himself — he’s Crist’s closest adviser, and he describes himself as “a Charlie Crist Republican.” And right now, the last thing Crist wants is to be seen as, well, liberal. Crist is facing a primary challenge in his bid for the U.S. Senate from the conservative Marco Rubio, who will undoubtedly challenge Crist’s conservative credentials. If LeMieux wants to do Crist a favor, he won’t inflame the conservative base by crossing party lines to vote for cap-and-trade legislation.

So, for now, the jury’s still out on LeMieux.

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