A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Arizona voters finds Arpaio, famed for his crackdowns on illegal immigrants, leading Goddard, the state’s current attorney general, by 12 points – 51% to 39%. Seven percent (7%) prefer some other candidate, and four percent (4%) are undecided.

According to the survey, Goddard leads Republican Gov. Jan Brewer by a comfortable nine-point margin, and Goddard is virtually tied with State Treasurer Dean Martin. Brewer is the only one of the possible candidates who is officially in the race.

With numbers like this, could Arpaio be enticed to run for governor? And could he win?

Rumors have been swirling in Arizona for the past few months that Arpaio is mulling a gubernatorial bid, fueled by his antipathy for Goddard. The 77-year-old Arpaio was first elected in 1992, and he won re-election in 2008 by a commanding 13-point margin, with 55 percent of the vote. During that race, Arpaio raised more than $600,000 — an eye-popping sum for a countywide election. Effectively a modern-day political boss, “Sheriff Joe” is well-known for his heavy-handed tactics to combat illegal immigration and bragging about the harsh conditions in county detention facilities. He has launched investigations of numerous political opponents, including Goddard, Phoenix Mayor Phil Gordon, Maricopa County Supervisor Mary Rose Wilcox, the Phoenix New Times and the Maricopa County Superior Court.

While Arpaio remains extremely popular in Maricopa County — the home of Phoenix, Scottsdale and Tempe accounts for approximately 61 percent of Arizona’s population — Goddard has already proven himself in statewide races, having been elected attorney general in 2002, and re-elected in 2006 with 60 percent of the vote (pdf). A poll released last month by the ASU Cronkite School of Journalism and KAET found Arpaio had a 61 percent approval rating among Maricopa County voters, while the same survey found 55 percent of Arizona voters approve of Goddard’s performance. Arizona has been trending Democratic in recent years, but a Gallup poll from January found party identification in the state was essentially a dead heat, and one would be hard-pressed to find anybody in Arizona without a strong opinion about Arpaio.

All of this seems to confirm Rasmussen’s findings: If Arpaio got into the race against Goddard, he would stand a pretty good chance of winning. It’s also a safe bet that Arpaio would raise a lot of money from out-of-state illegal immigration opponents.

The Obama administration has already clashed with Arpaio on a couple of occasions. In March, the Justice Department announced it was opening an investigation into allegations of racial profiling and unlawful searches and seizures, and last month Arpaio was stripped of his authority to enforce federal immigration laws under the controversial 287(g) program.

But if the Justice Department thought Arpaio was a handful as sheriff of Maricopa County, just imagine what he could do with control of the state’s Department of Public Safety, and Republicans in control of both houses of the state legislature.

(Via Eric Kleefeld)

This post has been updated.

Doug Hoffman, Bob McDonnell and Chris Christie

WATERTOWN, N.Y. — Conservatives declared victory in the 2009 off-year elections four days before voters went the polls. With the withdrawal of Dede Scozzafava, the embattled moderate Republican candidate, from the special election in New York’s 23rd Congressional District, activists and organizers are toasting a shocking victory over the Republican establishment.

Image by: Matt Mahurin

The hero of the moment is Doug Hoffman, the first-time candidate of the Conservative Party who effectively forced Scozzafava out of the race after national conservative groups like the Club for Growth and the Susan B. Anthony List showered his campaign with cash and staffed it with volunteers. On Sunday night, campaign strategists reacted to Scozzafava’s endorsement of Bill Owens, the Democratic candidate, by projecting confidence and dismissing the efforts Democrats made to win her over. Hoffman’s campaign was cheered by a survey from the North Carolina-based Public Policy Polling showing the candidate easily consolidating Scozzafava’s support. It did not push back against reports that the candidate failed to win over Scozzafava for an endorsement.

“I didn’t reach out to her,” said Hoffman’s spokesman Rob Ryan. “From day one, I haven’t had a thought about Dede Scozzafava unless it was about getting her out of this race.”

Still, conservative activists and Republican strategists told TWI that they were watching the results from NY-23 as part of a picture with at least three other high-profile elections on Tuesday. They are also looking to, and preparing to spin, an all-but-certain victory in Virginia’s statewide races, a possible victory in New Jersey’s gubernatorial election, and Maine ballot measures on tax rates and gay marriage.

In even the most disappointing scenario, where Republicans only gain ground in Virginia, they are getting ready to argue that voters are growing cold on the Democratic agenda and Barack Obama’s vaunted brand. (None of of the conservatives who spoke to TWI mentioned the mayoral election in Atlanta, where Mary Norwood, a onetime Republican activist, is expected to win the first round of voting and head to a runoff. If elected, Norwood would be the first white mayor of Atlanta since Richard Nixon’s presidency.)

“After the 2008 election, [there] was a lot of analysis that this country had made a big seismic shift to left of center,” said Gary Bauer, the president of American Values, and one of the first conservative organizers to endorse Hoffman. “I don’t think anything is going to happen to confirm that analysis. It’s still a right of center country. The ‘blame Bush’ card is getting old.”

Last week, the Los Angeles Times characterized the White House’s optimal election day scenario as a loss for Virginia gubernatorial candidate Deeds, a win for Gov. Jon Corzine (D-N.J.), and a “tie-breaker” Democratic win in NY-23. Conservatives, while optimistic about sweeping every one of these races, gave TWI some reasons why losses in New York, New Jersey and Maine would not necessarily be big defeats for the movement. But all suggested that the night would start out with unalloyed good news for the GOP: sweeping victories in Virginia. Polls in the commonwealth close at 7 p.m., and former Attorney General Robert McDonnell, the GOP’s candidate, leads Deeds by double-digit margins.

“This is a state that Democrats said was going blue, or least purple,” said Grover Norquist, the president of Americans for Tax Reform. “How do they explain it if they lose?”

Republicans are doing what they can to refocus on attention to what, according to polls, could be a Republican landslide. It would happen in a state that the Obama-Biden ticket carried by six points. Last week, RNC Chairman Michael Steele trekked across the Potomac and into Virginia for rallies with the GOP ticket. Victories in the races for governor, lieutenant governor, and attorney general on Tuesday would mark only the second time in history–the first was 1997–when Republicans grabbed control of all three of Virginia’s statewide offices.

Republicans are optimistic, too, about a handful Republican candidates winning back state legislative seats that had fallen to the Democrats over the past few election cycles. One of those candidates, Barbara Comstock, is a powerful Republican lawyer running for a seat in Virginia’s House of Delegates who worked for Mitt Romney’s presidential campaign and the defense teams of both I. Lewis “Scooter” Libby and Tom DeLay. In the summer, her partisan image was seen as a possible impediment to victory. Today, conservatives are hopeful that she’ll be swept in on McDonnell’s coattails.

There is less conservative optimism about New Jersey. It’s a Democratic-leaning state that’s played host to many Republican candidates who lost early poll leads as the electorate moved back to the majority party. Chris Christie, the GOP standard-bearer, has watched a once-commanding lead dwindle into a tie with Corzine. President Obama has repeatedly stumped for Corzine, hitting two of New Jersey’s vote-rich but poor cities in a Sunday campaign swing.

If Christie loses, Republicans have multiple scapegoats at the ready. One is Chris Daggett, a liberal Republican who ran as an independent and trained most of his fire on the GOP candidate. The other, to conservatives, would be Christie himself. He beat Americans for Prosperity state chairman Steve Lonegan in a surprisingly tough summer primary, taking hits from Lonegan for allegedly being too far to the left. At AFP’s “Defending the American Dream” summit held last month in northern Virginia, Lonegan told TWI that Christie was failing to give conservatives a reason to come out and vote. This week, Lonegan has joined Christie on the campaign trail to fire up conservative voters, but this pessimistic spin is at the ready if Corzine pulls out a win.

“If Christie is to win in New Jersey,” said Citizens United President and conservative activist David Bossie, “it would be a good day for America. It would be a rebuke of the establishment that is in complete control of New Jersey politics. But Christie is not really a leading conservative. He’s a good Republican, and he’d do a good job, and his election would be a rebuke to Barack Obama.”

Polls in New Jersey and in Maine close at 8 p.m., and few expect the results for either state to be announced quickly. And polls close at 11 p.m. ET in a special election for Congress in CA-10, a northern California district that Democrats have easily held in the past. Few conservatives give Republican candidate David Harmer a chance there, as Lt. Gov. John Garamendi (D-Calif.), who’s won elections in the state for decades, holds strong leads in polls of the early and absentee voters who make up more than half of California’s electorate. Inevitably, the election will be seen in the context of what happens in NY-23–where polls close at 9 p.m., and where counting could go on for hours. Some Hoffman backers believe that Mike Huckabee, one of few prominent Harmer supporters, endorsed the candidate before he endorsed Hoffman because of Huckabee’s long-standing feud with the Club for Growth.

Heading into Tuesday, most conservatives and Republicans professed optimism about what will happen at the polls. But an alternative take has already been written. Michael Barone, the editor of the Almanac of American Politics a conservative-leaning columnist, told TWI that it would be practically impossible for Democrats to claim significant wins even if they succeed in the White House’s “tiebreaker” scenario.

“If Corzine and Owens win,” said Barone, “they both will have gotten well under Obama’s percentages in those constituencies.”

How close to Karzai is Khalilzad? Jon Lee Anderson profiled Khalilzad in 2005, and included this paragraph:

In late 2003, Khalilzad was sent to Afghanistan as the U.S. Ambassador. The political capital he has in the Administration—which is considerable—is due to his successes there. While he was in Kabul, Afghanistan held its first free elections in history, which Karzai won handily. Karzai regarded Khalilzad as his close friend and adviser; he was very unhappy when, last April, President Bush nominated Khalilzad to replace Bremer’s successor in Baghdad, John Negroponte. Karzai appealed to President Bush several times to reconsider his decision.

There even used to be a wacky arrangement that the Obama administration considered to give Khalilzad some weird job to help Karzai govern somehow. So perhaps it shouldn’t be surprising that Khalilzad is opining to Amanpour that Abdullah will just accept a job in a Karzai government, even though Abdullah has gone on record denying that he’ll accept any such option.

Still, we’ll see over the weekend, I suppose.

Update, 1:15 p.m., Oct. 31: Dexter Filkins reports from Kabul:

Abdullah Abdullah, the chief rival to President Hamid Karzai, will announce on Sunday his decision to withdraw from the Nov. 7 run-off election, effectively handing a new five-year term to Mr. Karzai, according to Western diplomats here and people close to Mr. Abdullah.

But Mr. Abdullah seemed to be keeping his options open until the last second, as he has done through the Afghan political crisis. Those close to him, speaking on condition of anonymity on Saturday, said he was still trying to decide whether to publicly denounce Mr. Karzai, whom he has accused of stealing the Aug. 20 election, or to step down without a fight.

The main Republican critique of the poll, which contradicts Public Policy Polling and Rasmussen surveys showing Christie ahead, is that it was taken over too long a period. Quinnipiac conducted 1,267 “likely voter” interviews from Oct. 20 through Oct. 26. And the Republican argument is that Christie has recovered in the past few days at the expense of independent candidate Chris Daggett.

The other Republican critique is that this clashes with internal polling (which we won’t get a look at until after the election, if ever) showing Christie in the lead, narrowly, and that Quinnipiac might have over-sampled Democrats. Whatever the case, this poll has Corzine rising above 40 percent to 43 percent, and Christie’s favorable numbers tanking. And both of those elements are essential to the Corzine victory scenario where the incumbent gets near 45 percent of the vote in the three-way race.

I see a little more bad news for Christie here. The smart take on the race is that if Daggett polls around 13 percent or above, Christie loses — the Democratic base is just too large to let Corzine fall below 43 or 44 percent. If Daggett is not fading, and if on Election Day he can stay in the high teens, Christie’s task looks incredibly hard. Also, this poll has Corzine scoring only 74 percent of the African-American vote; most expect him to do at least 10 points better.

I welcome President Karzai’s statement today accepting the Independent Electoral Commission’s certification of the August 20 election results, and agreeing to participate in a second round of the election. This is an important step forward in ensuring a credible process for the Afghan people which results in a government that reflects their will.

While this election could have remained unresolved to the detriment of the country, President Karzai’s constructive actions established an important precedent for Afghanistan’s new democracy. The Afghan Constitution and laws are strengthened by President Karzai’s decision, which is in the best interests of the Afghan people.

I congratulate the Afghan people on the patience and resilience they have shown throughout this long election process. Given Afghanistan’s recent history, it is extraordinary that they were able to overcome threats and violence to express their democratic right to choose their leader. Insecurity in the country prevented some Afghans from voting, but it is a testimony to the bravery of the Afghan people that so many of them did come out to vote in the first round under tremendously difficult circumstances.

I commend both the Independent Electoral Commission and the Electoral Complaints Commission for carrying out their mandates. Throughout this process, the United States has been interested above all in the strength and independence of those institutions, and the need for them to fulfill their mandate on behalf of all Afghans.

I congratulate President Karzai and Dr. Abdullah, who both earned the support of voters from across the country. I also commend all of the other Presidential candidates who made this such a vibrant campaign.

It is now vital that all elements of Afghan society continue to come together to advance democracy, peace and justice. We look forward to a second round of voting, and the completion of the process to choose the President of Afghanistan. In that effort, the United States and the international community are committed to partnering with the Afghan people.

Another option was advanced by Anatol Lieven of King’s College and the New America Foundation a few days ago:

Instead, in my view, the Obama administration should adopt the following strategy: If the legitimacy of Karzai’s victory is seriously challenged by Abdullah to the extent that the June Iranian elections were, then Washington should agree that the results lack credibility and cannot be recognized, and use this as an excuse to move from a presidential to a prime ministerial system. A loyah jirga (grand national assembly) can be called to legalise this constitutional change. A caretaker prime minister can then be appointed who would attempt to bring more conservative Pashtuns into his cabinet. If Washington decides that this is a step too far and Karzai must remain as president, his loss of authority and legitimacy should nonetheless be made the basis for forcing him to appoint a prime minister to assume most responsibility for the actual running of the government.

This should be accompanied by a move to legalise the presence of political parties in the Afghan parliament, prior to the parliamentary elections next year. The Taliban should be actively encouraged to form a political wing and to take part in these elections—along the lines of the bizarre, but in the end very helpful, system in Northern Ireland, where even at the height of the British campaign against the IRA, its political wing, Sinn Fein, remained a legal party and stood for election.

Audacious! But how can the United States tell Afghanistan that the election was so fraudulent that it needs to essentially reshape its government outside its constitution? And what could the U.S. really do, short of threatening to withhold aid, if Karzai refused to acquiesce to the plan?

Update: In Exum’s comments, Shawn Brimley, a top official in the Pentagon’s policy directorate, says (it’s the 1:29 p.m. comment):

I think the best option is to go forward by focusing on local and regional approaches to security capacity and governance. I mean look, this is ultimately what we did in Iraq. Yes the election outcome is a worst case scenario but to me suggests simply shifting our focus toward a bottom-up approach, something that both the history of Afghanistan and our own recent operational experience suggests is the best option in a world of bad ones.

At a small gathering in a private home last night, I met journalists and aid workers who have years of experience in the country and no one could predict what’s going to happen in the next few days.

Meanwhile, Alex Strick van Linschoten reports from three Kandahar candidate rallies. Click through for the full flavor, but Abdullah Abdullah’s audience was distracted and bored; Ashraf Ghani was passionate and technocratic; most people showed up for incumbent president Hamid Karzai.

“Karzai doesn’t think in terms of growth in GDP in Afghanistan, unemployment, more services or security,” said Haroun Mir, director of Afghanistan’s Center for Research & Policy Studies. “He’s a consensus builder. As long as he could win a consensus of important power brokers, he thinks he’s a very successful man.”

Karzai is who he is, and the United States will very likely have to deal with him for years to come. Indeed, the intensifying Taliban pre-election violence might lead to the worst possible outcome: Karzai winning an election marked by irregularities and denied legitimacy in the eyes of many Afghans but not the power of the presidency.

we are accessing twitter from open proxies. they are closing them as fast as we can find them.

and:

I have massive incoming mail from twitter. cannot possibly reply. our internet conection is 27kb.

@PersianKiwi sent that from the Web, by the way. I’ll check this out for later in the day, but it’s fascinating that the regime is unable to block this powerful social-media tool.

And as the media is getting increasingly booted from Iran — a reporter friend who just left Tehran emailed last night that the regime is blaming the street demonstrations on foreign journalists and is arresting some — @PersianKiwi is live-Tweeting a demonstration from Tehran’s Engelhab Square: Can hear helicopters, cannot see them… my last ISP downed. have redialed new ISP, slow process. streets are packed with people. seems peaceful… the city is very busy. seems like everone is out but most shops are closed, business all quiet. not much normal traffic… call in from Enghelab Sq. Baseej [pro-regime paramilitary] outnumbered, just watching people march… am being told that there are injured students stuck in Tehan dorms. surrounded by baseej…. hearing rumours that Mousavi and Khatami are in azadi square now, unconfirmed…