Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman at his campaign headquarters Tuesday (David Weigel)

Saranac Lake, N.Y. – Jim Kelly walked into the lounge of the Hotel Saranac, his red tie undone and flapping against his shirt. He sighed. He plopped into a chair.

“Four thousand votes,” he said. “That couldn’t fill up one side of seats at Shea Stadium.”

Image by: Matt Mahurin

Slightly before midnight on Tuesday, reality reared its ugly head. Hoffman lost to Democrat Bill Owens, who became the first member of his party to represent this region of New York in Congress since the 1870s. The margin when Hoffman conceded was slightly more than 4,000 votes. Nothing went right. Owens won his base in the northeastern part of the district, and he won or held his own in the parts of the district that Scozzafava–who endorsed Owens after leaving the race–represents in the assembly. Hoffman underperformed in the Syracuse, N.Y., suburbs that neither candidate had political ties to, even though polls had him leading by a 2-1 margin there.

It was a sour note in a night of mostly good news for Republicans. The party’s slate in Virginia, a state where it had lost ground for eight years, was so dominant that it pulled seven Republican candidates into the state House of Delegates. In New Jersey, where several election cycles had seen Republican leads collapse in the final days, former U.S. attorney Chris Christie handily defeated incumbent Gov. Jon Corzine. Conservatives rallied to overturn a same-sex marriage law in Maine, and Republican candidates won surprise, under-the-radar victories in local races in New York and Connecticut.

The problem for conservatives now is their definition of success, in the intoxicating run-up to the election, wasn’t based on a multi-state win. Instead, it was all about Hoffman.

“Hoffman is likely to win,” said Bill Kristol, the editor of the Weekly Standard, during a Monday appearance on Fox News. “This is a classic swing congressional district. If a conservative Republican can win in this district with all the disadvantages of the chaos on the Republican side and the official Republican candidate pulling out and endorsing the Democrat, what does that say to the moderate Democrats in the House?” As late as 10:13 on Tuesday night, the National Review writer Victor Davis Hanson referred to the Democrats’ “three candidates” who looked like they would go down to defeat in a referendum on Barack Obama. Two were defeated–one, Bill Owens, was not.

In the last, frantic 72 hours of the race, conservatives focused on NY-23 as an all-but-sure win for the unlikeliest of candidates, a conservative triumph that would put an exclamation point on a great Republican night. After a Monday night campaign appearance for Hoffman, Jeri Thompson told TWI that a victory for the Conservative “would mean the Blue Dog Democrats stiffen their spines and say ‘no way, there’s no way we’re going to vote for health care.’” In his campaign appearances on Monday and Tuesday, the preternaturally low-key Hoffman began predicting victory. Asked if Scozzafava’s endorsement of Owens would hurt him, he said he’d “win without her.” Asked about the implications of a possible win, Hoffman eschewed the typical “too soon to say” response and talked about what “this victory” would mean for conservative, low-tax and anti-spending values.

If Hoffman and staff were too optimistic, they had their reasons. In the final stretch of the campaign, they welcomed in a surge of anti-abortion and Tea Party activists who hit the streets to canvass and get out votes. On Election Day, the anti-abortion Susan B. Anthony List coordinated more than a hundred activists to hand out sample ballots at polling stations. And at polling places visited by TWI, turnout was just what Hoffman’s campaign hoped for–high in the right areas–and voters who chose either candidate picked up on aspects of his message.

“We need jobs,” said Pat Kubli, a Plattsburgh voter who went for Owens. “Right now there’s a lot of focus on business and not enough focus on the middle class.”

Gary Barber, a voter from Ausable Folks, said he connected with Hoffman’s rhetoric about the size of the national debt, even though he hoped Hoffman would steer money to stimulus projects in the district. “I’m not blaming Obama for everything,” said Barber. “He inherited this shit from Bush, but he’s continuing everything that Bush did, starting with the bailouts.”

The levels of enthusiasm in both campaigns seemed to give an advantage to Hoffman. While reporters swapped rumors about the trouble Owens was having in turning out votes, At the candidate’s Plattsburgh campaign office, Owens’s direct mail–showing the president right next to the congressional hopeful–was taped to the door, an out-and-out mockery of the Democrats’ strategy of capitalizing on the president’s popularity here. Inside, volunteers phone-banked under the cover of a giant “Don’t Tread on Me” flag and eight posters ripped from a calender of Ronald Reagan photos. One message the phone-bankers deployed: “Send a CPA to Congress!” Another message: “Send a message to Pelosi!”

All of that stoked the impression that Hoffman was headed for a win. On election night, national reporters from The Wall Street Journal and Politico who’d come to NY-23 to cover the race headed to Hoffman’s event in Saranac Lake instead of Owens’ event in Plattsburgh, about an hour away. The initial mood was infectious. “This is a real win,” said one Hoffman organizer in an email to conservative bloggers who were about to jump on a 9:30 p.m. conference call about the race. “This may be short and sweet. I hope to delivery the message of: Victory.”

But as the night dragged on, the mood got sour. Hoffman backers sat or stood glumly in a ballroom, watching local TV reports that never seemed to let Hoffman get above 45 percent of the vote. A heaping catering table remained mostly full as activists talked amongst themselves and offered scenarios for what might be going wrong.

“The unions came out for Owens after Dede went for him,” said Hank Ford, the Conservative Party chairman in St. Lawrence County. “She transferred all that. Plus, her husband is a union guy.”

Sandy Caligloire, one of several Hoffman spokesmen, suggested that the conservative push that got Scozzafava out of the race might have doomed Hoffman. “We were strategizing for a three-way election,” he shrugged.

As the activists talked and drank, Hoffman’s spokesman Rob Ryan worked the ballroom floor, talking to reporters about the inconclusiveness of early results and the meaning of outstanding absentee ballots. At one point, he got local reporters to avoid going along with a short-lived MSNBC call for Owens. But as the night went on, more and more Hoffman allies poured cold water on their candidate’s chances. Owens, who ran a subtle campaign, benefited from a long-term Democratic canvassing and GOTV effort. He had the backing of powerful unions like SEIU 1199, who worked the district. Hoffman didn’t have access to Republican resources until it was too late. Some Hoffman workers suggested that the conservative effort that did come out was inexperienced, and failed to make the extra step to really pull out voters.

Hours before the polls closed, Hoffman backers were echoing the pundits’ spin–this race would be a referendum on President Obama, and a victory for Hoffman would put the brakes on health care reform by making Democrats worry about challenges to their re-elections in 2010. As a Hoffman victory became more and more remote, the rhetoric changed. The message became the message of two weeks ago. This election wasn’t about showing Republicans that conservatives could win. It was about showing Republicans that they couldn’t win without conservatives.

“People are fed up,” said Saranac Lake activist Russ Finley. “The Tea Party people are serious. The 9/12 people are serious. I’d hate to say that a loss is a good thing, but this is a good thing.”

Fox News’ disputed the Black Panther report, saying that Philly’s not exactly a Republican stronghold. Talking Points Memo has an alternative account of what happened — and here’s the video the McCain campaign is distributing.

But the McCain campaign’s supposed litany of problems hasn’t pointed up any serious wrongdoing. Where poll-watchers were supposedly forced to leave precincts, judges have ordered them back in. In Virginia, where Republicans complained that military ballots were not going to be counted, a judge ordered elections officials to hold onto them past Election Day.

GOP complaints in Missouri come down to opposing Democratic calls to extend polling hours there to ease long wait times at the precincts.

Finally, the McCain camp claims that people identifying themselves as Democrats are calling Republicans in Lancaster County, Pa., and falsely telling them that their polling places have changed location. There’s no indication of how many calls have been made or if anyone has been duped by them.

To sum up: While there are some glitches — and there could be more, as I noted last night — long lines, not fraudulent voting or intimidation, are what’s hindering this election. Victory is likely to go to the party and its members who turn out in the greatest numbers — and who are the most persistent.

For the first time since 1964, Virginia is in play in a presidential election. Many residents are surprised to see Virginia shaded blue on some electoral maps. The state will indeed make history if it favors Sen. Barack Obama. But in my mind, Virginia is already making history.

Polls show Obama leading, on average, by about 4.4 percent. This is monumental because the first African-American presidential candidate might take the state and because, more important, he’s so close to actually pulling it off.

Slavery, segregation and racial hatred clouds Virginia’s past. In some parts of the state, racial hatred is still alive — a reality we’ve been forced to face this election season. But another reality has also surfaced: Virginians have looked beyond skin color to learn about the candidates and what they stand for. In doing so, they’ve become so energized about the issues that they are turning out in record numbers to vote.

White that’s exciting, it’s also worrisome. High turnout and wet weather have caused problems at polling places throughout the state.

Twenty-five percent of Virginia’s polling places use optical scanning machines. There are reports that some are acting up because paper ballots were wet and the machines couldn’t read them. There have been voting-machine malfunctions in Louisa, Petersburg and Chesterfield counties, as well as elsewhere. In Richmond and Virginia Beach, precincts opened late. Long lines in Richmond and its suburbs have reportedly created some voting problems.

Hopefully, most of these problems will get sorted out, and all registered Virginians who haven’t already voted will make it to the polls by 7 p.m. Any voters encountering problems can report them to the CNN Voter Hotline at 1-877-462-6608.

No matter the outcome, this election is groundbreaking for Virginia. My state may still have a long way to go — but it’s on the right track.

Obama backstage with David Axelrod at a Florida election rally on election eve. (Credit: Obama Flickr.)

“Think you can win Indiana?,” a Wall Street Journal reporter asked Obama at the event.

“I think we can win Indiana, otherwise I wouldn’t be in Indiana,” he replied.  That sounds fair, though the state had the makings of a good Election Day trip even if Obama was not competitive.

The Illinois senator chatted with supporters and voters at the hall, according to the pool report: “Barack Obama stopped in at the UAW Local 550 Union Hall in Indianapolis. The room was set up with Obama posters and calling stations. About a dozen volunteers were making calls from their cellphones. Obama talked to at least 10 voters.”

Then the report details some of those conversations:

“Michael, this is Barack. How are you?” “I’d like to get your vote. Don’t be discouraged if there are some long lines.”

The same dialogue continued with a voter named Cindy. “Hi Cindy … I’m in Indiana trying to gear up and make sure everyone is going to vote.” “OK,” he said. “Grab some of those folks who haven’t voted yet.”

One of the volunteers asked Obama to call his wife, and he said he would call wives if there were any “mixed marriages.” “I’ll call your wife if she needs persuasion,” Obama said.

Volunteers were vying for Obama’s attention. “I’ve got one!” someone yelled out, meaning he had a live voter on the phone. “OK, I’ll be over there in a second,” Obama said working the room.

“Hello, Richard, are you going to vote? … OK, you’ve got to make sure to get everyone out.” He told a voter named Pam, “We just think right now what this country needs is some change, especially on the economy.”

He talked to another voter about his plan to make college more affordable. A volunteer said he  had a voter named Michelle on the phone. “Michelle? I’m used to talking to girls named Michelle.” “Michelle, I hope I can count on your vote,” he said.

This is all symbolic campaigning, of course.  The candidate is not actually trying to persuade individual voters by talking about changing the economy.

Instead, the conversation is a simulacra created and presented to reach other voters — a symbolic representation of voter interaction designed to affect TV audiences elsewhere.

It’s probably bad luck to quote Baudrillard on Election Day, but these “b-roll” photo ops are one of those times when the simluation of reality trumps the actual reality. ”The simulacrum is never that which conceals the truth — it is the truth which conceals that there is none.”  It’s true, even if you won’t find that in a pool report.

I cast my ballot this morning in the Petworth neighborhood, where I reside. The line was long — I waited for about an hour and a half — but without incident. There was no ID check, no signs or instructions to guide me and no privacy — I filled out my paper ballot in plain sight of everyone present. But the mood was generally upbeat.

Given the demographics of my neighborhood and the conversations I overheard, I predict the precinct will go 98 percent for Sen. Barack Obama.

Some photos from the polls:

The line outside the police station, where Precinct 45 cast its votes.

Thought I was home free when I got inside the building. Not the case.

The disconcertingly open voting stands.

My ballot -- blank, of course (I have SOME journalistic integrity).

The judge also revealed that he had voted early on Friday and had to stand in line for more than two hours. “It was quite a civics lesson,” Williams said.

The Advancement Project, which joined in the lawsuit with the NAACP, issued a statement saying, “With 500,000 new voters and high expected turnout the burden shouldn’t be on voters, it should be on the Commonwealth to make sure voting is accessible.”

Today, The New York Times reports on the responses from some of those outlets. And here’s a hint: Dingell won’t be pleased.

Paul Friedman, senior vice president at CBS News, for example, told The Times that the results from just a few East Coast states could reveal an early winner:

“We could know Virginia at 7,” he said. “We could know Indiana before 8. We could know Florida at 8. We could know Pennsylvania at 8. We could know the whole story of the election with those results. We can’t be in this position of hiding our heads in the sand when the story is obvious.”

Similarly, Slate’s David Plotz told The Times that, depending on early returns, he might call the race before 9 pm.

“Our readers are not stupid, and we shouldn’t engage in a weird Kabuki drama that pretends McCain could win California and thus the presidency,” Mr. Plotz wrote. “We will call it when a sensible person — not a TV news anchor who has to engage in a silly pretense about West Coast voters — would call it.”

The fear, of course, is that the networks will either flub their predictions (like they did in Florida in 2000) or paint a false portrait of victory that leaves West-Coast voters wondering why they should bother participating at all — the scenario suspected in 2004 after leaked exit poll results found Sen. John Kerry the likely winner.

On the other hand, if the early predictions are correct, we might at least get some sleep tonight.

Obama GOTV literature today.

“I feel great and it was fun, I had a chance to vote with my daughters,” Obama told reporters later on the airport tarmac, “I feel really good.”

Another reporter asked if Obama felt “sentimental.”

“You know I’m sure I will tonight – that’s when polls close,” he said, just before the campaign plane departed for Indiana. “The journey ends but voting with my daughters, that was a big deal. I noticed that Michelle took a long time though. I had to check to see who she was voting for,” he added.

Obama voted at Beluah Shoesmith Elementary School. With more than 50 state and local judges on the ballot, the Democratic presidential nominee spent quite a bit of time at the booth. NBC’s “Today Show” carried a live feed of the long ordeal, and, at one point, an anchor felt compelled to tell viewers that voting did not usually take that long, so people should not be dissuaded from turning out today. A pool report detailed the family scene:

Michelle, Sasha and Malia accompanied [Obama]. Malia went into the polling booth with Michelle and Sasah hung out in her own polling booth looking very grown up. She then looked on as Obama cast his ballot. Later, she hugged Obama’s leg looking impatient… Michelle took longer than Obama to finish her ballot. She did not look up from the ballot at all, while Obama grinned occassionally at his daughters.

With seamless timing, the Obama campaign had Sen. Joe Biden cued up to vote for the cameras as soon as Obama left the booth.

Meanwhile, it seems there will be no footage of President George W. Bush voting today. Both nominees ended up running against the incumbent. Bush already voted by mail to avoid being seen today — and maybe further damaging the possibilities of Sen. John McCain.