Florida state Rep. Dennis Baxley (Photo via myfloridahouse.gov/Mark Foley)

Wednesday on MSNBC’s Politics Nation with Rev. Al Sharpton, state Rep. Dennis Baxley, R-Ocala, revived his defense of the controversial voting law he sponsored last session by saying that the new law was a way of ensuring that Floridians do not register fictitious characters such as “Mickey Mouse” to vote, among other sorts of electoral “mischief.”

Reports have surfaced from several nonpartisan groups suggesting that Florida actively suppressed the voting rights of minorities, young people, the disabled and low-income voters by passing a restrictive elections law last session. These demographics typically vote for Democrats.

Federal policymakers have also criticized the Florida law — as well as other states that have similarly passed restrictive voting laws before the upcoming 2012 election. Sen. Bill Nelson, D-Fla., even pressed for congressional field hearing into laws he says were possibly passed for partisan gain.

However, Baxley argues these claims are untrue. He says the law was written to have a “secure election process that works,” he told Sharpton.

Sharpton repeatedly pointed out to Baxley that there were only 31 cases of alleged election fraud reported to state officials in the past three years, which he says is evidence of politically motivation for the new restrictions.

Baxley said the law was meant to prevent electoral “mischief,” not to necessarily respond to a problem in the state’s voting laws.

Baxley did say, however, that in the last election there were instances of people registering the name “Mickey Mouse” to vote in Florida. Baxley said it was that type of  ”mishap and mischief” that he was aiming to prevent in the 2012 election.

However, Sharpton quickly dismissed the argument.

“If you’ve got to get Mickey Mouse to make your case … then believe me you’re trying to take all of us to Disney World for a ride,” he told Baxley.

Baxley’s argument is not new. In fact, while the bill was being debated in the Legislature, Baxley tied the need for new voting laws to allegations that a group called ACORN was registering fictitious characters such as “Mickey Mouse” and “Mary Poppins” in exchange for cash.

As The Florida Independent reported in Aptril, though, legislators never successfully explained how these fictitious characters would ever make it to the polls, cast a ballot and affect the outcome of an election.

Sharpton also interviewed the president of the nonpartison League of Women Voters. For decades, before the new restrictions were placed on third-party voter registration, the group registered people to vote in the state. During his interview, Baxley said the group should “get over their angst” concerning the voting law.

Baxley has also said publicly that the law is not “going to limit anybody’s participation.”

The state is still awaiting a court’s approval of some of the more controversial aspects of the law, which includes new restrictions on third-party voter registration drives, a shorter “shelf life” for signatures collected for ballot initiatives, a restriction that makes it more difficult for voters to change their registered addresses on election day and a reduction of the number of early voting days.

You can watch Baxley’s interview, as well as Sharpton’s interview with the League of Women Voters here:

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Late last week, national Democrats announced they would be launching a campaign responding to laws across the country that may decrease access to the polls for many for the 2012 election.

U.S. News reports:

DNC Chairwoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz accused Republicans of launching a “full-scale attack on the public’s right to vote.” She said that GOP efforts in states to curb instant voter registration and early voting and require photo identification at the polls to fight alleged fraud could push minorities, especially Hispanics and African-Americans, away from voting. She claimed that repeated investigations into voter fraud have found very little evidence that it occurs.

…

The Republican National Committee rejected the charges, however. Officials said there is evidence of voter fraud. In just one popularized case, for example, they note that ACORN—the Association of Community Organizations for Reform Now—in 2008 was accused of handling 400,000 fraudulent registrations.

The website, protectingthevote.com, states that “in 2011, a new movement to change the way we vote is under way. Unlike past reforms that sought to expand access to voting, this effort aims to restrict voting purely for partisan gain.”

The website runs through some of the most restrictive new laws in states across the country. The DNC points to laws that “target voter registration drives, cut early voting, repeal election day registration, and create citizen challenges” as the biggest culprits of voter suppression.

The website also has a link to a 73-page report written by the Voting Rights Institute, with help from the DNC. The report singled out Florida as passing some of the most restrictive voting laws, including one law that targets voter-registration drives and another that cuts early voting.

According to the report:

The GOP enacted restrictions on voter registration drives in Florida and Texas, and proposed similar measures in Illinois, Michigan, Missouri, and Mississippi. The new legislation in Florida was by far the GOP’s most extensive effort. In 2010, Republican Governor Rick Scott rode a wave of Tea Party support to victory in the state’s gubernatorial race, joining Republican majorities in the Florida House and Senate. A pinnacle of their collaboration in this year’s legislative session was HB1355, a 158-page omnibus elections overhaul that—in addition to early voting cuts—enacted draconian restrictions on all nongovernmental entities that conduct voter registration.

Under HB1355, any group or individual that conducts voter registration must now (1) register their organization with the Florida Division of Elections prior to conducting registration activities and regularly file onerous reports on all their activities; (2) track and account for voter registration forms using a specially generated number for each document; (3) submit completed voter registration forms to the state within 48 hours (a significant decrease from the previous deadline of 10 days); (4) subject themselves to fines between $50 and $1,000 for registration forms returned to the state after 48 hours; and (5) submit to new enforcement authority from the Florida attorney general.

These restrictions encumber even large and experienced organizations; immediately after HB1355 was passed, the League of Women Voters of Florida suspended its voter registration activities. But these restrictions fall heaviest on small organizations that conduct neighborhood voter registration, lack the capacity to abide by the state’s reporting requirements and tight deadlines, and could be virtually bankrupted under this penalty structure. Already, there are reports of public school teachers who may face huge fines under the new law—all for the supposed offense of helping students register to vote without following each minute requirement of the new law.

Fewer voter registration drives mean fewer voters. But cutting back on voter registration drives does not have the effect of limiting the political participation of all citizens equally. Data from the U.S. Census Bureau demonstrates that African American and Hispanic voters are more than twice as likely to register through voter registration drives as are white voters in Florida.

Democrats have also sought congressional investigations in order to address these laws. Sen. Bill Nelson, D-Fla.,requested congressional field hearings into the new laws, asking Sen. Dick Durbin, D-Ill., to schedule them. Nelson also sent a letter to U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder requesting that the Justice Department launch an investigation into whether the “new state voting laws resulted from collusion or an orchestrated effort to limit voter turnout.”

Florida is currently waiting for a ruling on the most controversial aspects of H.B. 1355 from a court in the District of Columbia.

Photo: Flickr/hjl

Sink, who is in a very tight race with Republican Rick Scott — polls show her either three points up or three points down — may lose votes from African-Americans energized by Meek’s candidacy.

Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Steele said in a statement that Clinton’s actions were “chilling” African-American voters. He added, “One can only imagine the response if Republican leadership tried to force out of the race – in the 11th hour – a qualified black candidate like Kendrick Meek.”

Meek is the only African-American Senate candidate this cycle; that Clinton (with awareness from the White House) almost persuaded Meek to drop out may well depress Democratic turnout that Sink needs to overcome Republican voters who are expected to turn out enthusiastically to vote for Senate candidate Marco Rubio.

At the same time, 1.7 million voters have already voted, so the effect of the report might be dampened.

The Meek campaign strenuously denies that he considered dropping out after talks with Clinton, a staunch Meek ally. “Kendrick Meek was not ever dropping out of this race and will not ever drop out of this race,” Meek campaign manager Abe Dyk said in a statement.

Luke Johnson writes for The American Independent.

The proliferation of absentee balloting and in-person early voting, which hit a high-water mark of 30 percent nationally in 2008, is transforming election endgames for both political parties and candidates.

Advertising — particularly attack ads — are running earlier to coincide with the opening of the voting period, as opposed to the long-standing practice of trying to deliver a knockout punch in the final days of the campaign.

This year, the percentage of early voters may climb even higher. As many as 40 percent of midterm ballots in Ohio, for instance, are expected to be cast before Nov. 2. It’s changing the timing of ad spending and get-out-the-vote campaigns, and it might just be a lone bright spot for Democrats, whose traditional party infrastructure appears better equipped to muster the manpower and the logistical requirements of the new system.

Given that as of Saturday, August 21st nearly 520,000 Florida Republicans have already voted by absentee or early vote, we expect overall turnout of at least 1.7 million in the Florida Republican gubernatorial primary. … This would represent roughly 41% of registered Republicans, a 70% increase over the 2006 gubernatorial primary. This is consistent with the increased turnout we have seen in Republican primaries across the country, where outsiders have shocked the establishment candidates.

However, The Orlando Sentinel’s Aaron Deslatte notes that more people voting early doesn’t necessarily mean that a proportional amount of people will vote on primary day. In general, election officials have observed that voters are more comfortable with voting early. And Florida election officials said that they expected turnout to be closer to 1-1.3 million.

Anecdotal evidence also suggests that turnout will be light. The Miami Herald reported that voters were “scarce” at polling stations this morning. Duval County Supervisor of Elections Jerry Holland wrote on his Facebook page that turnout was “very slow.” It’s also raining throughout much of the state in big cities like Tampa and Orlando — a factor that will likely depress turnout.

But the time between today and August 24, the date of Florida’s primary, will prove crucial for Rep. Kendrick Meek (D-Fla.), as he attempts to regain his footing against upstart billionaire challenger, Jeff Greene, in Florida’s Democratic senate primary. Early voting will also make the difference between Rick Scott, a former hospital executive, and his challenger Bill McCollum, the state’s attorney general, for the GOP gubernatorial nomination.

Because both races are so close, each campaign’s success at turning out voters during the upcoming two week stretch will also be crucial. Early voting is a growing trend among states that, the Times notes, initially made Democrats rather anxious when it was instituted:

Democrats in particular have experienced a change of heart with the extended process. When it first went into effect in 2002, some feared it was a trick engineered by the Republican-controlled Legislature to suppress turnout. As recently as 2008, some African-American voters feared that it led to greater disenfranchisement for one reason or another.

Two years later, Democrats have more confidence in the system, which may be a product of electoral math. The latest registration figures show Democrats with a 612,000-voter advantage over Republicans, up from about 466,000 before the 2008 primary, and 300,000 in 2006, a bright spot heading toward the general election.

As for the upcoming primary election, the benefits for either Democrat are less clear. Most studies show that early voters are more partisan, wealthier, and better educated, but Meek thinks it could help his campaign’s efforts in getting working parents and the elderly to the polls:

“I’ve always been a strong proponent of early voting,” he said. “We want to make sure we drive the vote out with the Democratic vote showing up not only in South Florida but all across Florida.”

In Iowa, more than 10 percent of the electorate has voted, with 88,000 more Democrats than Republicans casting early ballots.

Unlike hypothetical polling — Who might you vote for in three months? — the launch of early voting means pollsters can survey which candidate is actually stacking up more ballots. Sen. Barack Obama has the early lead.

The Obama campaign has prioritized early voting in key states like Nevada. (Credit: Obama Flickr)

Pew reports today that among people who say they have already voted, Obama has a 19-point lead.  That’s not a small cohort either; 15 percent of those surveyed say they have already voted.

Another 16 percent say they plan to vote early — and Obama leads that group by 19 points too.

The poll also has numbers on the candidates’ current hypothetical support, as TWI’s Aaron Wiener reported earlier. Obama’s 16-point edge is far less relevant than the early-vote margins, of course, though Pew’s analysis emphasizes a trend of McCain’s support  eroding and Obama’s holding strong among those most likely to turn out next Tuesday:

This is the fourth consecutive survey that has found support for the Republican candidate edging down. In contrast, since early October weekly Pew surveys have shown about the same number of respondents saying they back Obama. When the sample is narrowed to those most likely to vote, Obama leads by 53% to 38%.

Out of habit, we often discuss (and report) the campaign as a countdown to a single day of voting, but that’s obviously inaccurate.  The voting has begun, the exit polling has begun and for the first time, Obama has a lead that actually matters.

Bill Burton, chief spokesperson of the Obama campaign, just forwarded national reporters an AP article, with no additional comment, that he thinks speaks for itself:

BUSH VOTES EARLY FOR MCCAIN

WASHINGTON (AP) — President Bush, who has been rarely seen on the campaign trail, cast his ballot for GOP presidential nominee John McCain. In past elections, the president and first lady Laura Bush have traveled to Texas to vote, but the White House said Friday they cast their ballots in the early voting process. Their votes are being sent back to Texas.

The White House also said the president and Laura Bush plan to be at the White House on election night.

The Republicans don’t want to risk even a moment’s photo-op of President Bush on Election Day.  Pressed off the stage and into submission by his allies, it’s a fitting, final election day for a president who took visual bluster to new lows with a photo-op approach to governing.

Obama’s senior strategists held a national news conference by telephone today, bullishly arguing that the campaign is on offense and surging in red states, while Sen. John McCain is scampering to Pennsylvania for an unlikely “pathway to victory,” as campaign manager David Plouffe put it.

Field guru Jon Carson, ticking through numbers on early voting, contended that Obama is building an early lead with new, first-time voters. In Colorado, he said one of five Democrats voting by mail have never previously voted in a general election, auguring a surge of new support.  In Nevada, early-voting data suggest an edge for Democrats, he added, where 40% of Obama’s early-vote support is from new or sporadic voters (who only vote in presidential years), while  30% of the GOP’s early-voting bloc are from new or sporadic voters.

Obama’s edge among new voters is based not only on his appeal, the aides noted, but also his persistent outreach.  Counting only live conversations as voter contacts — not voicemails or robocalls — the campaign touted its large footprint in the field:

1.3 million contacts with Florida voters since Labor Day

1.5 million contacts in Ohio since Labor Day

Currently averaging 400,000 contacts a day across the country

On pace to make 1.2 contacts this weekend in battleground states alone

Finally, the strategists emphasized that Obama’s large rallies are the ultimate organizing tool.  Citing the two events that drew 175,000 people in Missouri last week, the campaign noted that within one day of those events, the state’s field operation swiftly filled 35% of its volunteer shifts.

During Q&A, Plouffe largely demurred on strategic questions from reporters — including an inquiry about Obama’s “closing argument” from NBC’s Andrea Mitchell — while stressing his operation’s field prowess. (Another reporter asked, seriously, whether the campaign would win Florida.)

Plouffe did pivot from a strategic question to argue that at this juncture, newly converted Obama supporters may be more pivotal than undecideds because new Obama supporters seem “sticky” and look solid for mobilization.  If newly identified supporters are soft, by contrast, field operatives worry that they will end up mobilizing people who ultimately back the opponent. (That was part of Howard Dean’s Iowa collapse in 2004.)

“If anything, enthusiasm for Obama is increasing as the election draws near,” he added, because late-breaking voters are embracing the Democratic nominee.