In Iowa, more than 10 percent of the electorate has voted, with 88,000 more Democrats than Republicans casting early ballots.

Unlike hypothetical polling — Who might you vote for in three months? — the launch of early voting means pollsters can survey which candidate is actually stacking up more ballots. Sen. Barack Obama has the early lead.

The Obama campaign has prioritized early voting in key states like Nevada. (Credit: Obama Flickr)

Pew reports today that among people who say they have already voted, Obama has a 19-point lead.  That’s not a small cohort either; 15 percent of those surveyed say they have already voted.

Another 16 percent say they plan to vote early — and Obama leads that group by 19 points too.

The poll also has numbers on the candidates’ current hypothetical support, as TWI’s Aaron Wiener reported earlier. Obama’s 16-point edge is far less relevant than the early-vote margins, of course, though Pew’s analysis emphasizes a trend of McCain’s support  eroding and Obama’s holding strong among those most likely to turn out next Tuesday:

This is the fourth consecutive survey that has found support for the Republican candidate edging down. In contrast, since early October weekly Pew surveys have shown about the same number of respondents saying they back Obama. When the sample is narrowed to those most likely to vote, Obama leads by 53% to 38%.

Out of habit, we often discuss (and report) the campaign as a countdown to a single day of voting, but that’s obviously inaccurate.  The voting has begun, the exit polling has begun and for the first time, Obama has a lead that actually matters.

Bill Burton, chief spokesperson of the Obama campaign, just forwarded national reporters an AP article, with no additional comment, that he thinks speaks for itself:

BUSH VOTES EARLY FOR MCCAIN

WASHINGTON (AP) — President Bush, who has been rarely seen on the campaign trail, cast his ballot for GOP presidential nominee John McCain. In past elections, the president and first lady Laura Bush have traveled to Texas to vote, but the White House said Friday they cast their ballots in the early voting process. Their votes are being sent back to Texas.

The White House also said the president and Laura Bush plan to be at the White House on election night.

The Republicans don’t want to risk even a moment’s photo-op of President Bush on Election Day.  Pressed off the stage and into submission by his allies, it’s a fitting, final election day for a president who took visual bluster to new lows with a photo-op approach to governing.

Obama’s senior strategists held a national news conference by telephone today, bullishly arguing that the campaign is on offense and surging in red states, while Sen. John McCain is scampering to Pennsylvania for an unlikely “pathway to victory,” as campaign manager David Plouffe put it.

Field guru Jon Carson, ticking through numbers on early voting, contended that Obama is building an early lead with new, first-time voters. In Colorado, he said one of five Democrats voting by mail have never previously voted in a general election, auguring a surge of new support.  In Nevada, early-voting data suggest an edge for Democrats, he added, where 40% of Obama’s early-vote support is from new or sporadic voters (who only vote in presidential years), while  30% of the GOP’s early-voting bloc are from new or sporadic voters.

Obama’s edge among new voters is based not only on his appeal, the aides noted, but also his persistent outreach.  Counting only live conversations as voter contacts — not voicemails or robocalls — the campaign touted its large footprint in the field:

1.3 million contacts with Florida voters since Labor Day

1.5 million contacts in Ohio since Labor Day

Currently averaging 400,000 contacts a day across the country

On pace to make 1.2 contacts this weekend in battleground states alone

Finally, the strategists emphasized that Obama’s large rallies are the ultimate organizing tool.  Citing the two events that drew 175,000 people in Missouri last week, the campaign noted that within one day of those events, the state’s field operation swiftly filled 35% of its volunteer shifts.

During Q&A, Plouffe largely demurred on strategic questions from reporters — including an inquiry about Obama’s “closing argument” from NBC’s Andrea Mitchell — while stressing his operation’s field prowess. (Another reporter asked, seriously, whether the campaign would win Florida.)

Plouffe did pivot from a strategic question to argue that at this juncture, newly converted Obama supporters may be more pivotal than undecideds because new Obama supporters seem “sticky” and look solid for mobilization.  If newly identified supporters are soft, by contrast, field operatives worry that they will end up mobilizing people who ultimately back the opponent. (That was part of Howard Dean’s Iowa collapse in 2004.)

“If anything, enthusiasm for Obama is increasing as the election draws near,” he added, because late-breaking voters are embracing the Democratic nominee.

In Michigan, the campaign tapped the rapper Jay-Z for an instructional YouTube video about state laws, so that first-time voters would know that an I.D. is not required in the state.

Now for Florida. On Monday morning, the campaign unveiled an irreverent, old-fashioned advertisement to mark the beginning of early voting and to promote a dedicated hotline for Sen. Barack Obama supporters in Florida:

PRODUCTION NOTES: The high-tech campaign gets low-tech in this whimsical footage of Florida as a “space-aged land of modernity.” Early voting, which is still a mystery to many young and first-time voters, is presented as the latest technological breakthrough on Florida’s frontier. The upbeat score adds to the feeling of a 1950s infomercial gone haywire.