UPDATE: Jude Seymour has updated numbers that basically end the race (again) for Hoffman–Owens leads by 3,105 votes with only 3,072 absentee ballots outstanding. And that’s with no absentee ballots from Essex, Franklin and St. Lawrence Counties, which went for Owens on election day.

The Watertown Daily Times has the more-or-less final results of the election before absentee ballots were counted. The conservative Gouverneur Times has those results plus the final totals of three counties — three of the seven counties carried by Hoffman on election night — with absentees tallied up.

On election night, voters cast 2,365 ballots in Hamilton County: Hoffman won 50.0% of the vote, Owens won 37.6% and Scozzafava won 12.4%. There were 207 absentee ballots cast. The breakdown:

Doug Hoffman – 81 (39.1%)
Bill Owens – 50 (24.2%)
Dede Scozzafava – 76 (36.7%)

On election night, voters cast 17,674 ballots in Madison County: Hoffman won 50.8% of the vote, Owens won 45.8% and Scozzafava won 3.4%. There were 496 absentee ballots cast. The breakdown:

Doug Hoffman – 170 (34.3%)
Bill Owens – 203 (40.9%)
Dede Scozzafava – 122 (24.6%)

On election night, voters cast 5,165 ballots in Oneida County: Hoffman won 53.8% of the vote, Owens won 39.2% and Scozzafava won 7.0%. There were 762 absentee ballots cast. The breakdown:

Doug Hoffman – 446 (58.5%)
Bill Owens – 219 (28.7%)
Dede Scozzafava – 97 (12.7%)

That’s a lot of variance between three counties. In one, Hoffman did better than he did on election day; in another, both Hoffman and Owens did worse than they did on election day; in another, Owens lost on election day but won on absentees. But the total picture from this batch of 1,465 absentee ballots is:

Doug Hoffman – 697 (47.6%)
Bill Owens – 472 (32.2%)
Dede Scozzafava – 296 (20.1%)

That’s a net 225 votes for Hoffman, who’s down by 2,951 votes with 6,123 left to count. It’s simply not the kind of ratio that will deliver victory. If the numbers keep breaking this way, it would point an Owens win of around 2000 votes. But keep in mind, we don’t have absentees yet in the huge Owens counties of Clinton and St. Lawrence.

The Minnesota canvassing board doesn’t certify a winner; it simply certifies a count. Here we are in the contest phase. In legal terminology, it’s a de novo trial – totally new. It’s not an appeal of the canvassing board’s decision. …

Coleman will try to establish that the ballots have not been counted uniformly, and the different methods led to an inaccurate count. There is evidence for this. …

Coleman might also narrow the margins if the contest board absorbs his arguments about double counting.

I don’t buy it. Sure, anything’s possible at this point, but you have to remember that the courts don’t operate in a vacuum. As much as they should be following the letter of the law, they’re also well aware that the people of Minnesota are thoroughly fed up with this election and want their full dual representation in the U.S. Senate.

According to a recent poll, 49 percent of Minnesotans disagree with Coleman’s plan to challenge the election results, and 44 percent say he should concede even before the justices rule on the case. Among independents in another poll, a majority oppose Coleman’s decision and want Franken to be seated provisionally.

And who are the justices making this decision? They’re a three-judge tribunal appointed by NFL Hall of Famer Alan Page, who is believed to be a Democrat. While his selected judges technically cover the political spectrum — they were appointed by a DFLer (Rudy Perpich), an independent (Jesse Ventura) and a Republican (Arne Carlson), respectively — Carlson has already stated publicly that Coleman should concede. If these judges lean in any direction, it’s likely to be Franken’s.

Then we come to the crux of the matter: the nature of Coleman’s challenges. Quite simply, there’s no consistency to them. Coleman’s cherry-picking lawyers are asking to add some ballots and remove others, without any overarching logic (or much success). The judges will recognize that Franken can play that game too, and unless they want to open up a whole new set of challenges, it seems to me that they’re likely to uphold the canvassing board’s result — and the state Supreme Court’s prior rulings — and send Franken to Washington.

UPDATE: Nate Silver also has some thoughts on this. Worth a read.

At the end of the statewide recount, Franken led by 225 votes, and today he sent letters to Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) and Secretary of State Mark Ritchie (D), arguing that Minnesota should have full representation in the Senate as the upper chamber begins to debate its agenda. The state leaders have yet to respond.

According to state law, the election certificate cannot be signed within seven days of the certification of the result. That seven-day window has now elapsed, but it is unclear whether Franken can be seated in Washington while Coleman’s lawsuit is pending.

In the meantime, Coleman’s case has taken a serious hit. He is seeking to have 654 rejected absentee ballots counted, even though they have twice been ruled faulty — on Election Day, and upon a second review by election officials last month. Now it looks as if they will be rejected for the third time.

Several counties have once again reviewed these ballots, and the numbers aren’t good for Coleman. Nate Silver reports that of the 151 of these ballots that the counties have reevaluated, just one has been deemed improperly rejected. For Coleman, that’s a success rate of two-thirds of one percent.

Of course, Coleman’s aim is to have the courts rule in his favor, and local officials will probably not play much of a role. But at a time when Coleman needs literally everything to go his way if he is to have a chance of overturning Franken’s victory, this isn’t a good start.

UPDATE 2:08 PM: The Minnesota Independent reports that Pawlenty has rejected Franken’s request for a signed election certificate, citing a statute indicating that election contests must be resolved before a certificate can be issued.

Basically, Republican Norm Coleman is contesting DFLer Al Franken’s election victory on three fronts. First, he says that 133 lost ballots that benefited Franken by 46 net votes should not be counted. Second, he alleges that between 130 and 150 ballots were counted twice, though he can’t be sure which candidate they helped. And third, he argues that 654 additional absentee ballots should be counted, even though they were twice rejected by election officials.

The election contest will be adjudicated by a three-judge panel to be named by NFL Hall of Famer and current Minnesota Supreme Court Justice Alan Page, who is believed to be a Democrat. Republicans will no doubt whine about a liberal bias in the courts — as they already have in this contest — but Page is the ranking member of the state’s high court, after Chief Justice Eric Magnuson recused himself.

Basically, this is all a “Hail Mary” on the part of the Coleman campaign, which would have to have everything go its way to stand a chance of erasing Franken’s 225-vote lead.

When will it finally end? From The Minnesota Independent:

Nobody knows. Most political observers have speculated about a roughly two-month timeframe. But legal expert Ron Rosenbaum, speaking on KFAN (1130-AM) yesterday, poured cold water on that relatively quick scenario. “I think those people are dreaming,” he told host Dan Barreiro. “This thing could easily last longer than you even want to imagine, if permitted, and I think there’s a reasonable chance that could happen.”

However, Coleman is blocking the inclusion of about a third of the absentee ballots from Franken-friendly areas, such as St. Louis County. So far, Franken’s been taking the high ground and pushing for all 1,346 ballots in question to be counted — but if the Coleman campaign keeps cherry-picking ballots, Franken might have to change his strategy.

Sixty percent of these rejected absentee ballots come from five counties whose voters have favored Franken 57 percent of the time. If all of the ballots from these counties are included, Franken stands to gain 112 net votes. But if Coleman blocks a third of them, Franken will net just 75 votes, bringing his lead to 121.

Then we come to the remaining 40 percent of the ballots, in counties where Coleman holds an approximate 56-44 advantage. If the ballots hew to the Nov. 4 trends, Coleman can expect to pick up 60 votes. That would cut Franken’s lead to 61 votes — probably a bit too close for comfort for the Franken team, especially when Coleman’s lawyers have all sorts of challenges planned. And if Coleman gets 61 percent of the votes in these counties, the race will be a virtual tie.

Mind you, these back-of-the-envelope (or, more accurately, front-of-the-vastly-overdue-electric-bill) calculations are speculative. But they do show that the moral high ground is a potentially dangerous place for Franken to be, when the low road is paved with net vote gains. If the Franken campaign is hoping to gain legitimacy and public support through its honesty, let it be forewarned that these benefits could quickly evaporate if Franken is forced to contest the election.

I wanted to take a moment to thank you for your support and your patience during this long recount process.

Today I’ve got good news to report: it looks like we’re on track to win. The state canvassing board has completed its job of reviewing all the ballots – and at the end of this important step in the process, we’re ahead.[...]

We’ve got a lot of important work left to do together to get this country back on track – and with the recount process almost over, I want you to know that I’m ready to get to work on day one. For now, though, I’d like to thank you for all you’ve done, and to wish you and your family a Happy New Year. I think it’s going to be a great one.

The election is still far from decided — a complex absentee ballot situation has yet to be resolved — but Ezra notes that Franken is the overwhelming favorite at Intrade, where he is trading at 90 to Coleman’s six.

Now we turn to the 1,346 absentee ballots that were identified by election officials as improperly rejected. The two campaigns must agree that a ballot was wrongfully discarded before it can be counted — and GOP Sen. Norm Coleman’s campaign is not making that easy.

The Franken team has agreed that all 1,346 ballots should be counted. But the Coleman camp is recommending the inclusion of just 778 of these ballots, as well as 67 ballots that were not flagged by election officials as improperly rejected. And guess what? The ballots are mostly from Republican-leaning areas!

From the Star Tribune:

Coleman’s proposed additions skew heavily toward suburban and rural counties where he did best in the election.

I explained in my last post why Coleman wouldn’t want all 1,346 ballots to be counted, but he seems to be going a bit overboard here. His campaign has given no indication that there’s an overarching logic to its choices, other than cherry-picking for Coleman’s own benefit.

The Coleman team will be taking a closer look at these ballots today, tomorrow and Friday.

UPDATE: The Star Tribune has analyzed 93 percent of the absentee ballots in question and determined that Franken is likely to gain from them. More motivation for Coleman’s selective approval of the ballots.

The Minnesota Supreme Court ruled Dec. 18 that all improperly rejected absentee ballots must be counted, and local election officials found that 1,346 ballots fit this description. But the two campaigns must agree that a ballot was improperly rejected in order for it to be counted — and compromise in this election is hard to come by.

The Franken campaign wants to count all 1,346 of the ballots. The Coleman team, on the other hand, has so far agreed to just 136 of these ballots, though it promised that more would be forthcoming.

Franken holds an unofficial 46-vote lead after the Minnesota State Canvassing Board finished reviewing challenged ballots a week ago. These absentee ballots, then, could easily make the difference in this tight race.

According to the Star Tribune, about 60 percent of these ballots are from Hennepin, St. Louis, Ramsey and Dakota counties. I ran the numbers, using the county-by-county election returns, and found that Franken won 56.9 percent of the vote in these counties, to Coleman’s 43.1 percent. If these numbers hold, Franken would gain 460 votes from these counties if all 1,346 ballots are counted, while Coleman would gain 348.

Franken’s lead would then grow from 46 to 158. In order for Coleman to win the race, he would have to win 64.7 percent of the 538 ballots from the remaining counties. Considering that he won only 55.6 percent of the overall vote in these counties, his chances of winning the election are slim if all 1,346 absentee ballots are counted.

It’s easy to understand why the Coleman campaign is doing its best to prevent that from happening.

The Coleman team argued that these ballots, whose originals and duplicates could not be properly matched, had been counted twice, and that the canvassing board should not certify the election results until this issue was resolved. Most of these ballots came from Minneapolis, which voted overwhelmingly (78 percent) for Franken, and their exclusion could have helped Coleman overcome his current deficit of 46 votes.

But the court ruled unanimously that the Coleman campaign lacked sufficient evidence of double counting, making it likely that Franken will be certified as the winner sometime in January. Coleman’s lawyers have said that they will contest the certified result.

The court also granted the two campaigns more time to identify absentee ballots that were wrongly rejected.   The deadline for the allocation of the ballots was extended from Dec. 31 to Jan. 4. The extra time was alloted to allow for more fair and more effective counting. The decision also makes it “highly unlikely” that Minnesota will be able to seat its second senator on Jan. 6, according to a Coleman lawyer.

The 1,500 or so absentee ballots deemed wrongly rejected during the recount are expected to add slightly to Franken’s lead. For this reason, the Franken campaign has been pushing to include them, while the Coleman team has resisted.

So Franken inches closer to the finish line, but we won’t know for sure which campaign will reach it until next month. Stay tuned — or better yet, enjoy the holidays.