There is something you can do right now…you will find attached an invitation to an event scheduled for Dec. 5, featuring Joe Arpaio, “America’s Toughest Sheriff.” “Sheriff Joe” has very graciously agreed to raise funds for the “Freedom In Truth Trust.” The FIT Trust is the fund that was established to help us satisfy legal debts incurred during the 2006 campaign. You can read more about it at http://www.jdhayworth.com/fit-trust.html

You may not live in Arizona…but no matter where you call home, would you respond to the attached invitation and please send a contribution to the FIT Trust?

That would certainly be a factor in the decision we will make at the “Hayworth Hacienda!”

The irony of using the Spanish word in an appeal for a possible immigration-focused Senate bid is really something.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Arizona voters finds Arpaio, famed for his crackdowns on illegal immigrants, leading Goddard, the state’s current attorney general, by 12 points – 51% to 39%. Seven percent (7%) prefer some other candidate, and four percent (4%) are undecided.

According to the survey, Goddard leads Republican Gov. Jan Brewer by a comfortable nine-point margin, and Goddard is virtually tied with State Treasurer Dean Martin. Brewer is the only one of the possible candidates who is officially in the race.

With numbers like this, could Arpaio be enticed to run for governor? And could he win?

Rumors have been swirling in Arizona for the past few months that Arpaio is mulling a gubernatorial bid, fueled by his antipathy for Goddard. The 77-year-old Arpaio was first elected in 1992, and he won re-election in 2008 by a commanding 13-point margin, with 55 percent of the vote. During that race, Arpaio raised more than $600,000 — an eye-popping sum for a countywide election. Effectively a modern-day political boss, “Sheriff Joe” is well-known for his heavy-handed tactics to combat illegal immigration and bragging about the harsh conditions in county detention facilities. He has launched investigations of numerous political opponents, including Goddard, Phoenix Mayor Phil Gordon, Maricopa County Supervisor Mary Rose Wilcox, the Phoenix New Times and the Maricopa County Superior Court.

While Arpaio remains extremely popular in Maricopa County — the home of Phoenix, Scottsdale and Tempe accounts for approximately 61 percent of Arizona’s population — Goddard has already proven himself in statewide races, having been elected attorney general in 2002, and re-elected in 2006 with 60 percent of the vote (pdf). A poll released last month by the ASU Cronkite School of Journalism and KAET found Arpaio had a 61 percent approval rating among Maricopa County voters, while the same survey found 55 percent of Arizona voters approve of Goddard’s performance. Arizona has been trending Democratic in recent years, but a Gallup poll from January found party identification in the state was essentially a dead heat, and one would be hard-pressed to find anybody in Arizona without a strong opinion about Arpaio.

All of this seems to confirm Rasmussen’s findings: If Arpaio got into the race against Goddard, he would stand a pretty good chance of winning. It’s also a safe bet that Arpaio would raise a lot of money from out-of-state illegal immigration opponents.

The Obama administration has already clashed with Arpaio on a couple of occasions. In March, the Justice Department announced it was opening an investigation into allegations of racial profiling and unlawful searches and seizures, and last month Arpaio was stripped of his authority to enforce federal immigration laws under the controversial 287(g) program.

But if the Justice Department thought Arpaio was a handful as sheriff of Maricopa County, just imagine what he could do with control of the state’s Department of Public Safety, and Republicans in control of both houses of the state legislature.

(Via Eric Kleefeld)

This post has been updated.

Paul’s father, Rep. Ron Paul (R-Texas), is one of the very few Republicans pushing for the closure of Gitmo. The Rand Paul press release was pointed out to me by a supporter of the elder Paul, who’s furious that libertarian-minded donors are flocking to the younger Paul.

It’s a surprising poll because only 24 percent of state Republicans have a negative view of McCain. He’s suffering from a backlash against everyone currently in Washington. And it’s been two years since McCain broke with the GOP base and backed comprehensive immigration reform. If that comes up again in 2010, as many expect it to, McCain could face real problems with Arizona voters.

Charlie Crist – 47 percent (-10)
Marco Rubio – 37 percent (+26)

Likely Democratic candidate Rep. Kendrick Meek (D-Fla.), according to Kos, is a non-factor in the general election.

We have observed in recent weeks an unprecedented series of reports and events in the media which cast negative perceptions of the Republican Party, both to the public and to our members.  While many factors may be involved in the various circumstances, our members and the public are receiving continuing negative reports about issues involving financing, candidates, political activities and more, concerning the Republican Party.  This has been, and continues to be, extremely damaging to our Party, our candidates, and our members.

Via Stacy McCain, who says the more serious allegations of the rebel faction concern an alleged Ponzi scheme involving Crist’s financial backer Scott Rothstein.

Rand Paul – 35 (+9)
Trey Grayson – 32 (-4)

Paul has an eight-point lead among “conservative” voters who make up about 70 percent of the GOP primary electorate. When I talked to Paul in August, it seemed like his army of national donors would force an expensive primary, but the national party still expected Grayson to win. But Grayson hasn’t yet tried to match Paul’s fundraising, and his punching-down attacks on Paul haven’t been effective. The result — for now — is that Rand Paul, whom national media once considered a novelty candidate, is in a serious position to win the GOP nomination in a safe red state.

“Senator Lieberman should be commended today for sticking with his principles and standing against efforts by Democrat leaders in Washington to ram through a controversial and massive government health care bill,” says NRSC spokesman Colin Reed in a statement aimed at Sen. Byron Dorgan (D-N.D.)–a liberal in a red state who has shown no sign of bucking the public option, but faces a (somewhat remote) re-election threat if Gov. John Hoeven (R-N.D.) runs next year. “The question many in Washington and in North Dakota are waiting to have answered, however, is where do Byron Dorgan and Kent Conrad stand? Will they stand with Harry Reid and his partisan government-run health care bill or will they stand with North Dakota taxpayers who are already facing an unimaginable federal debt?  Both Senators have had more than enough time to study this issue and understand its consequences on North Dakota taxpayers – it’s time they made their position clear as Senator Lieberman did today.”

The NRSC is sending more or less the same statement to reporters in Louisiana, Nebraska, Florida, and Indiana. The latter two states were blue in 2008 but red in 2004.

The Republican Revolution in 1994 started very much like what we see today. Like then, our country is reeling from misguided liberal policies, high taxes and out-of-control spending. This special election in New York’s 23rd Congressional District could be the first election of the new Republican Revolution, but we need the momentum to get it started.

If Republicans hold the 23rd district they won’t actually gain anything, but Gingrich realizes that a Democratic gain, even if it came narrowly as a GOP and Conservative Party candidate split the majority vote, would cut hard against the positive GOP narrative of the past few months.

In other news, Gingrich endorses “rising conservative star Liz Cheney’s” half-baked idea of sending an American soldier to receive the Nobel Peace Prize. (Neither Cheney nor Gingrich would be eligible, neither having served in the military.)