The Washington Independent » TWI

Senate Public Option Scoreboard

TWI — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 11:00:43 +0000

TWI’s ever-evolving Senate Public Option Scoreboard features some new and important data to help you keep track of the latest developments in the health care debate. In addition to every senator’s stance on the public option, the Scoreboard now displays the percentage of people in each senator’s home state who lack health insurance, according to the most recent U.S. Census Bureau data. We’ve also included state-by-state polling data on the public option, where available. And of course we continue to update the Scoreboard with the latest quotes — and changes of heart — from every senator.

The latest tally on the public option in the Senate: 50 likely supporters and 40 likely opponents, with 10 members — all in the Democratic caucus, and all necessary “yes” votes to overcome a filibuster — on the fence.

Senate Public Option Scoreboard — Likely Supporters

TWI — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 21:24:23 +0000

On the Fence	Likely Supporters	Likely Opponents
8	51	41

Likely Supporters
Senator	Stance	Home State Data*


Daniel K. Akaka (D-Hawaii)	Signed a public letter saying that “absent a competitive and continuous public insurance option – health reform legislation will not produce nationwide access and ongoing cost containment.” (10/30/2009)	6.7% uninsured



Max Baucus (D-Mont.) Finance Committee chairman	“[T]he Senate health reform legislation is a balanced, fiscally-responsible package that will deliver the real reform that American families, businesses and the economy need. The Senate bill is fully paid for, won’t add a dime to the federal deficit and helps pay down the national debt,” said Baucus. “It ensures choice for consumers and increases competition in the market. … The American people are counting on us to act, so we must continue the hard work and compromise it took to reach this point until we deliver a bill to the President’s desk.” (11/18/2009) “I don’t know. I don’t know. I don’t know. I just really don’t know [if a public plan can pass].” (10/28/2009) “The major overall goal here though is to get health care reform that passes the Senate, gets 60 votes, and I just don’t know if there is 60 votes for the most pure kinds of the public option. There may be 60 votes for the less pure kinds.” (10/19/2009) “I want a public option, too!” (08/24/09)	18.5% uninsured 47% support the public option, 43% oppose



Michael Bennet (D-Colo.)	“Any health care reform bill should control costs, allow people to keep their own medical plan and their own doctor, increase competition, and increase coverage — all in a fiscally responsible way. I also believe providing patients with a public insurance option — that increases competition and drives down prices — would help to achieve these goals.” (08/08/2009)	17.2% uninsured



Jeff Bingaman (D-N.M.)	“My preference would be to do it through a public option but if some other decision was made to do it through a co-op or some other avenue I don’t think that’s the end of the world.” (08/08/2009)	21.4% uninsured



Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.)	“We need competition, which is what a public option would bring us.” (09/08/2009)	17.8% uninsured



Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio)	“[I]‘m not going to say I will not support it if it doesn’t have [a public option]. It’s not the only thing that matters in this bill. Guaranteed issue is very important … insurance reform is very important.” (09/03/2009) “If the insurance companies are satisfied with this bill it’s not a good bill.” (09/03/2009)	11.8% uninsured 57% support the public option, 35% oppose



Roland Burris (D-Ill.)	“I firmly believe in a public option and will oppose any bill that does not include one.” (09/16/2009)	12.8% uninsured



Robert Byrd (D-W.Va.)	“Let us stop the shouting and name calling and have a civilized debate on health care reform which I hope, when legislation has been signed into law, will bear [Ted Kennedy's] name for his commitment to insuring the health of every American.” (08/26/2009)	15.8% uninsured



Maria Cantwell (D-Wash.)	“I wouldn’t vote for a bill that doesn’t have Medicare reform and the public option. What would I tell the people in Washington state?” (09/16/2009)	13.1% uninsured



Ben Cardin (D-Md.)	“I think the public option is important. I think it’s important because you need to have an affordable option available for people.” (08/23/2009)	11.1% uninsured



Bob Casey (D-Pa.)	“I believe people should have a choice, and it gives people — the public option gives people another choice, along with a lot of choices that are in the private marketplace.” (08/31/2009)	9.4% uninsured



Chris Dodd (D-Conn.) Presided over HELP Committee bill’s passage in Sen. Ted Kennedy’s (D-Mass.) absence	“I don’t know if we have the votes to pass a strong public health care option. […] What I do know is that I plan to fight hard to convince my colleagues on the committee and in the full Senate that we need a public option.” (06/19/2009)	9% uninsured 64% support the public option, 30% oppose



Byron Dorgan (D-N.D.)	“Yes I do [support a public option].” (08/21/2009) “First of all, I think it’s important that people who are satisfied with the health plan they have know that they can keep that coverage.” (08/21/2009)	10.5% uninsured



Richard Durbin (D-Ill.) Senate Majority Whip	“And when the American people hear this, they say, ‘For goodness sakes, at least give us a low cost option.’ And that’s what I’m for. They call it the public option, but it’s a not-for-profit company that doesn’t have to generate profits for the shareholders or spend a fortune on advertising or administrative costs” (11/22/2009) “I support a public option, but, yes, I am open.” (08/09/2009)	12.8% uninsured



Russ Feingold (D-Wis.)	“We need a public option. We need something that would cause some control over the abuses that have occurred in the insurance industry.” (10/25/2009)	9.1% uninsured



Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.)	“I think the public option with an opt out is the right way to go.” (10/27/2009) “The public option should be one of a variety of choices for people who want improved coverage.” (08/28/2009) “I am also open to considering a non-profit co-operative model, as long as it can accomplish the critical goal of controlling premium costs and spurring competition.” (08/28/2009)	17.8% uninsured



Al Franken (D-Minn.)	“I think that what will happen is that the public option will be shown to work and states will sign on.” (10/27/2009) “I think that we can use the public option to cut costs because private health insurers will have to compete with it. The public option also doesn’t have to make a profit so we can focus more on integrating care and coordinating health care homes and increasing quality to bring down costs.” (09/02/2009)	8.7% uninsured



Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.)	“I plan to stand with the president so that we move forward on meaningful health care reform. I continue to support a robust public option that can compete with private health insurance and drive down health care costs for everyone.” (09/10/2009)	11.8% uninsured



Kay Hagan (D-N.C.)	“We have crafted a plan that will stabilize health care costs and includes a Community Health Insurance Option, which I support.” (07/02/2009)	15.9 % uninsured 54% support the public option, 38% oppose



Tom Harkin (D-Iowa) Chairman of the HELP Committee	“Mark my word — I’m the chairman — it’s going to have a strong public option.” (09/13/2009) “The vast majority of the Democratic caucus is for the public option that is in the HELP bill. Should the 52 give in to the five, or should the five come along with the majority?” (10/16/2009)	9.1% uninsured



Daniel Inouye (D-Hawaii)	Signed a public letter saying that “absent a competitive and continuous public insurance option – health reform legislation will not produce nationwide access and ongoing cost containment.” (10/30/2009)	6.7% uninsured



Tim Johnson (D-S.D.)	“A public option would simply be a government insurance plan that people could choose if they liked it better than the private insurance plans available to them. Americans who are not offered insurance through their employer or cannot afford private insurance plans need an affordable option.”	11.7% uninsured



Ted Kaufman (D-Del.)	“A public option – where the consumer has the opportunity to keep their current insurance or choose the public option, if no competitor is available – gives Americans a greater range of choices, makes the health care market more competitive, and keeps insurance companies honest.” (08/29/2009)	10.3% uninsured



John Kerry (D-Mass.)	“Sen. Kerry supports a robust public plan, that like Medicare, would be available to everyone from coast-to-coast.” (Kerry spokesman) (07/09/2009) “Majority Leader Reid is taking the gutsy and appropriate road in fighting for the right policy, something the American people want and an issue on which every Senator should be held accountable. That’s why I voted for it in the Finance Committee and why I’ve advocated for it since day one.” (10/26/2009)	4.1% uninsured



Paul Kirk (D-Mass.)	“Senator Kirk believes there should be a public option to keep costs down and keep insurance companies honest.” (Kirk spokesman) (09/28/2009)	4.1% uninsured



Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.)	“I think there’s some positive movement toward a public option that includes cost reform and also has this opt-out provision, which I think is fine, since you may have some individual states that may not want to be a part of it.” (10/27/2009) “I would prefer a public option that would be a competitive option that would allow people to buy into a Federal Employee Health Benefits Program, which is a series of private plans.” (09/02/2009)	8.7% uninsured



Herb Kohl (D-Wis.)	“[President Obama thinks the public option] is a good thing, he wishes we could have it. I feel the same way. But we’ll see how it works out as we work our way through the legislative process.” (09/11/2009) “Ideally, I think health reform should include some type of a public option.” (06/20/2009)	9.1% uninsured



Frank Lautenberg (D-N.J.)	“When [Harry Reid's] bill becomes law, people cannot be denied health coverage because of preexisting conditions, they will have multiple choices for affordable insurance and the bill will actually reduce our Federal deficit.” (11/19/2009)	12.4% uninsured



Patrick Leahy (D-Vt.)	“I want it to be competition — with the public option there is.” (09/09/2009)	9.1% uninsured



Carl Levin (D-Mich.)	“There will be an opt out. I think it’s a reality.” (11/20/2009)	11.5% uninsured



Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.)	“I’ll vote for the public option. But I’m focused on these deficit costs, on how can we reconfigure the way we pay for health care in a way that, long term, will begin to have an impact on these deficits that are really going to threaten the security of our nation in the next 10 to 20 years, if we don’t get serious about it.” (10/25/2009) “I think there’s a chance that we’ll have some kind of public option. But it probably will be a very moderate program that will be severely limited in terms of its ability to grow … and who can access it.” (10/05/2009) “I can’t support a bill that will allow the public option to become the public mandate.” (08/31/2009) “If it’s constrained, I’d vote yes.” (08/31/2009)	18.5% uninsured



Robert Menendez (D-N.J.)	“By ensuring that families have a real choice of health insurance options – and that one of those choices is a quality, federally-backed plan – we can help guarantee that families will have good options for health care.” (05/21/2009) “We need a public option to increase competition, keep insurers honest, drive down costs.” (09/29/2009)	12.4% uninsured



Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.)	“By creating competition, by holding private insurers’ feet to the fire, you get better service. You get lower costs. So, a public option is essential.” (10/16/2009)	16.4% uninsured



Barbara A. Mikulski (D-Md.)	“I say there is no option but a public option. For those who say we need a trigger, I say, ‘be careful; you could be shooting down health care.’” (06/2009)	11.1% uninsured



Patty Murray (D-Wash.)	“What we are trying to do is create a competitive pool of insurance options, including a public option.” (08/20/2009) “I support the President’s vision of a public plan.” (09/09/2009)	13.1% uninsured



Bill Nelson (D-Fla.)	Supports a public option but wants to ensure that states cannot opt out for several years: “My concern is you don’t even get the competition from a public option to begin with because the insurance lobby will lock down its votes. The people will never know in that state or not if a public option would lower their rates. (10/27/2009) “I have come down on the side of voting for the Schumer [public option] amendment,” Nelson told the Senate Finance Committee on Sept. 29. “[Public option advocates] don’t have a clue” about the logistics of a public plan. “The whole thing is so complicated you can’t expect them to understand. … If a co-op serves the same purpose, what’s the big deal? … You can’t get 60 votes in the Senate [for a public option]. I’m trying to get something passed.” (09/16/2009) “He’s keeping an open mind on co-ops, public options and other possible proposals, but believes there aren’t enough votes in the Senate to pass a public-option plan,” a Nelson spokesman told TWI on Sept. 17.	20.8% uninsured 40% support the public option, 47% oppose



Jack Reed (D-R.I.)	“[The HELP bill] provided this public option so that it would be a fair competitor with private insurance. Not displace private insurance.” (07/25/2009) “[Co-ops] could be a fallback position if we cannot muster the support for the public option as it’s come out of the committee. I hope we can muster the support, though.” (07/25/2009)



Harry Reid (D-Nev.) Senate Majority Leader; top recipient of health industry campaign donations this year	“I’ve told people, whoever will listen, that I am in favor of the public option.” (08/28/2009) “The public option, with an opt-out, is the one that’s fair.” (10/26/2009) “Reid continues to believe that at the end of the day, some form of a public option that creates competition and lowers costs for consumers will be included in any Senate proposal.” (Reid office statement) (10/05/2009)	21.3% uninsured 52% support the public option, 40% oppose



Jay Rockefeller (D-W.Va.)	“I believe the inclusion of a strong public plan option in health reform legislation is a must. It is the only proven way to guarantee that all consumers have affordable, meaningful and accountable options available in the health insurance marketplace.” (08/16/2009)	15.8% uninsured



Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.)	“While I voted to proceed to the health care legislation tonight, I have made it clear to the administration and Democratic leadership that my vote for the final bill is by no means guaranteed. In the weeks to come I intend to do everything I can to make this legislation stronger and more effective for working families and taxpayers in Vermont and America and something all Americans can be proud of.” (11/21/2009) “Our job both from a public policy point of view and a political point of view is to give our constituents what they want and that is a strong public option.” (10/27/2009) “I am a strong advocate of a public option. I think that is one mechanism to keep the private insurance companies honest. If you’re serious about cost containment you have to do that and so my strong hope and expectation is there will be a strong public option in any health care bill that is passed.“ (08/17/2009)	9.1% uninsured



Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) Top recipient of insurance industry campaign donations this year	“We are going to come together on a public option. … I have talked to every moderate senator. Every one of them is interested, is open to a public option.” (10/04/2009) “I have faith in Harry Reid to get the 60 votes.” (10/27/2009) “I personally don’t particularly like the trigger, particularly if its three years or four years down the road. It depends on how you set up the trigger, but [if] your measure is concentration in the insurance industry and the lack of competition as a result of that concentration — we’re there already.” (09/09/2009)	11.8% uninsured



Arlen Specter (D-Pa.)	“This U.S. Senator is going to tell him (the President) emphatically that we need the public option.” (09/09/2009) “I think the likelihood is there are 50 plus votes among the Democrats in the Senate to have a robust public option, without an opt out, with a trigger, without any condition.” (10/22/2009)	9.4% uninsured



Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.)	“I am a supporter of the public option. … But I think it’s important to stay focused on what we’re trying to accomplish. … There are a number of ways to get there.” (09/13/2009)	10.8% uninsured



Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.)	“Well, I support a public option. I did it in committee.” (10/05/2009) “[The public option] is only a part of reform. It is an important part. Those of us on the inside are looking at what we can do and looking at the votes.” (08/18/2009)	11.5% uninsured



Jon Tester (D-Mont.)	“We need competition, and if we get a public option that will help Montana. I will support it.” (10/28/2009) “I don’t need [the public option] either way. I could either support it or not support it. It’s all in the design.” (08/26/2009)	18.5% uninsured 47% support the public option, 43% oppose




Mark Udall (D-Colo.)	“I support the President’s plan to include the public option as a tool help reform our broken health care system. But above all, any reform must be done in a deficit-neutral way and must provide choice, stability and security for those who have insurance.” (09/10/2009)	17.2% uninsured



Tom Udall (D-N.M.)	“I hope we’ll be able to put a bill on the floor that will have a public option.” (09/03/2009)	21.4% uninsured



Mark Warner (D-Va.)	“It’s not a make or break thing–he wants to see a health reform bill that contains costs, and if it includes a public option…he would vote for it.” (Warner spokesman) (08/24/2009) “I want to make sure there are some competitive alternatives to the insurance companies. But I’m concerned that simply expanding Medicare and Medicaid without getting the financial incentives right — it’s going to again end up driving up the deficit costs.” (08/24/2009)	12% uninsured



Jim Webb (D-Va.)	“I will vote to proceed to debate, but I think everyone should see that bill before we start debating it. … If it came down to a public option as opposed to, say, a non-profit insurance programs or those sorts of things, I would support a public option.” “There is no reason to believe that private insurers alone will meet the public purpose of ensuring coverage for all American at an affordable price for taxpayers.” (06/25/2009)	12% uninsured



Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.)	“I think we’re taking reckless chances if we don’t include a public option, so I’m a very strong supporter of it. Is it possible that we could solve the problem without it? I suppose hypothetically, but I think it would be a mistake.” (08/21/2009)	10.5% uninsured



Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) Co-wrote the Wyden-Bennett health reform bill, which restructures the private insurance market without a public option	“Including a public option is a step in the right direction, now let’s remove the firewalls in this bill that prevent Americans from choosing it.” (10/27/2009) “When you have a prestigious medical organization like Mayo Clinic saying that they could accept a public option if it was like what members of Congress get … that’s a real breakthrough.” (09/22/2009)	16.4% uninsured

For senators who are on the fence, click here.

For likely opponents, click here.

*Uninsured numbers come from 2008 U.S. Census Bureau data.

Senate Public Option Scoreboard — Likely Opponents

TWI — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 21:24:22 +0000

On the Fence	Likely Supporters	Likely Opponents
8	51	41

Likely Opponents
Senator	Stance	Home State Data*


Lamar Alexander (R-Tenn.)	“Senator Reid’s bill is appropriate for the season. It’s the same turkey you didn’t like in August, and it’s not going to taste any better on Thanksgiving. It’s still more premiums. It’s still higher taxes. It’s still Medicare cuts. It’s still a 2,000-page bill.” (11/19/2009) “Thumbing their nose at the American people by ramming through a partisan bill would be the same thing as going to war without asking Congress’ permission. You might technically be able to do it, but you’d pay a terrible price in the next election.” (09/06/2009)	13.6% uninsured 61% support the public option, 28% oppose



John Barrasso (R-Wyo.)	“The more Washington runs the system, the worse it’s gonna be for the American people.” (10/06/2009) “What I’m hearing all across the country is ‘kill the bill.’” (08/28/2009)	13.9% uninsured



Robert Bennett (R-Utah) Co-wrote the Wyden-Bennett health reform bill, which restructures the private insurance market without a public option	“If it has a public option in it, even one that is described as a co-op, the answer is: ‘No.’” (08/26/2009)	15.5% uninsured



Kit Bond (R-Mo.)	“I don’t want to see government-controlled co-ops or triggers, anything like that. It’s a gateway drug to a public option.” (09/09/2009) “The only bipartisan thing about this whole bill is the opposition to the plan.” (09/09/2009)	13% uninsured



Sam Brownback (R-Kans.)	“I call on the President and the Congressional leadership to stop the current attempts to push massive and expensive health care reform through Congress.” (08/27/2009)	12.2% uninsured



Jim Bunning (R-Ky.)	“I do not support a government-run health care program. I believe it will kill private insurance.” (09/09/2009) “We will see if Congress and the Obama administration … continue to ignore the will of the people in an effort to force their liberal agenda down our throats.” (09/09/2009)	14.1% uninsured 46% support the public option, 45% oppose



Richard Burr (R-N.C.)	“We’re leaving to an elected official the ability at any point now, five years from now ten years from now, to write the rules on mandates in a way the private sector couldn’t compete with the government option, that’s just not a smart thing for the congress to do.” (08/14/2009) “I am willing to entertain [the co-op proposal.] However, if these co-ops are financed or run by the federal government, then they are no better than the public option and are just federally run health care under a different name.” (08/18/2009)	15.9% uninsured 54% support the public option, 38% oppose



Saxby Chambliss (R-Ga.)	“Every individual has the right to choose their own doctor and that’s why I’m opposed to universal health care.” (09/01/2009)	18.8% uninsured



Tom Coburn (R-Okla.)	“As a practicing physician, I have seen first-hand how giving government more control over health care has failed to make health care more affordable and accessible.”(05/20/2009) “Is it efficient to care for the people in Northwest Arkansas by sending money to Washington … or could you as a community figure out a way to do it better, which by the way is constitutional? … There is no compassion in any government program.” (09/06/2009) “We have a government-centered approach that is already failing instead of a patient-centered approach. And we ought to be concerned about patients, not the government.” (11/22/2009)	19.5% uninsured



Thad Cochran (R-Miss.)	“I don’t think the Senate is going to endorse the House work product.” (08/2009)	17.9% uninsured



Susan Collins (R-Maine)	“I’m opposed to a Washington-run public option. I believe it would cause many people to lose health insurance that they’re currently happy with now, and that’s contrary to the assurances that advocates of the public option have been giving. I’m also concerned about the cost and control issue.” (09/08/2009) “The problem with the trigger is it just delays the public option.” (09/08/2009)	10.9% uninsured 57.4% support the public option, 37.2% oppose



Bob Corker (R-Tenn.)	“I don’t think a public option will be part of a final package. While I think certainly the president will mention that in a speech Wednesday night, I do not think it’s going to be a part of a plan that passes unless it’s done through reconciliation, which to me is not the route to go.” (09/08/2009)	13.6% uninsured 61% support the public option, 28% oppose



John Cornyn (R-Texas)	“There is nothing ‘optional’ about a public option. The so-called ‘public option’ is nothing more than a Trojan horse that will ultimately result in government-run health care. This partisan proposal will also raise premiums on those with private insurance, raise taxes on the middle class, and cut Medicare benefits for seniors.” (10/26/2009)	24.1% uninsured



Mike Crapo (R-Idaho)	“The battle in our country over whether to shift to a government option in health care is an overarching one that we have to get past.” (09/09/2009)	17.8% uninsured



Jim DeMint (R-S.C.)	“If we’re able to stop Obama on this it will be his Waterloo. It will break him.” (07/17/2009) “Any Republican now that helps them pass a bill is helping them pass a government takeover of health care.” (08/17/2009)	17.4% uninsured



John Ensign (R-Nev.)	“[A public option] will destroy, I believe, and most believe, that it will destroy the private insurance system.” (09/25/2009) “I hope people don’t politicize Sen. Kennedy’s death and use it to pass a bill.” (09/25/2009)	21.3% uninsured 52% support the public option, 40% oppose



Mike Enzi (R-Wyo.) Ranking member of the HELP Committee	“For millions of Americans, the government-run plan would turn into a bureaucratic nightmare.” (08/19/2009) “I can count votes, and I know that a government-run plan will not pass in the Senate.” (08/19/2009)	13.9% uninsured



Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.)	“My belief is that no private-sector entity can survive over a long period of time competing against the government.” (08/08/2009) “The public option has been roundly rejected by the public. The public is smart.” (10/26/2009)	17.4% uninsured



Charles Grassley (R-Iowa) Ranking member of the Finance Committee	“The simple truth is that I am and always have been opposed to the Obama Administration’s plans to nationalize health care. Period.” (08/2009) “I see [co-ops] as an opportunity to enhance health-care competition — just as cooperatives do in other areas of the economy.” (08/18/2009)	9.1% uninsured



Judd Gregg (R-N.H.)	“A public plan is essentially a stalking horse for a single-payer plan. It is more than the camel’s nose under the tent. It is the camel’s neck, and probably front legs, under the tent. There is no way the private sector will be able to compete.” (09/12/2009) “We shouldn’t push [those 170 million Americans who already have health insurance] into a public plan by creating a system which basically disincentivizes their employers to give them health care.” (10/28/2009)	10.8% uninsured



Orrin Hatch (R-Utah)	“They’re trying to put through a government plan, one way or the other, that will have everything run right out of Washington. I mean, look, it just doesn’t work that way.” (09/15/2009) “Sooner or later they’re going to do away with the private insurance market, which would be a catastrophe.” (08/26/2009)	15.5% uninsured



Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-Texas)	“I think this bill is a disaster for our country.” (11/22/2009) “If the president truly wants to bring America together and have Republicans sign onto this, he really does need to start all over with a new blueprint.” (09/09/2009)	24.1% uninsured



James Inhofe (R-Okla.)	“Many in Washington believe the answer rests in a bureaucratically managed, one-size-fits-all, government health care program that includes what advocates call a ‘public option’. I strongly disagree and reject this approach.” (08/11/2009) “We can stall it. And that’s going to be a huge gain for those of us who want to turn this thing over in the 2010 election.” (07/22/2009)	19.5% uninsured



Johnny Isakson (R-Ga.)	“I am not going to be a part of mortgaging my kids’ futures by driving Americans to a government-run health care system we can’t afford.” (09/10/2009)	18.8% uninsured



Mike Johanns (R-Neb.)	“President Obama continues to press for a government-run option and I cannot support that.” (09/11/2009)	11.1% uninsured 39% support the public option, 47% oppose



Jon Kyl (R-Ariz.) Senate Minority Whip	“There is no way that Republicans are going to support a trillion-dollar-plus bill. … No matter how bad things are, Congress can always make things worse.” (08/18/2009) “I agree that states should have the option to opt in. But I don’t even know if they have this provision written yet. I certainly haven’t seen it.” (10/27/2009) Kyl’s office (in response to preceding quote): “Today’s report in The Hill regarding Senator Kyl’s position on an ‘opt-in’ for a government insurance plan is inaccurate. His statement was taken completely out of context, and he, along with every member of our caucus, does not support a government-run insurance plan in any form. Everyone who has been following this debate should know Senator Kyl has been leading the charge against a government takeover of our health-care system.” (10/28/2009)	18.7% uninsured



George LeMieux (R-Fla.)	“Cutting half a trillion dollars from Medicare (over 10 years) is not budget neutral. Shifting costs to the states for increases in Medicaid is not responsible. And taxing medical and life-savings devices – which will increase, not decrease the cost of health care — is not reform!” (10/21/2009) LeMieux stressed that he had ‘serious concerns’ about the latest health care reform proposal being pushed by Sen. Max Baucus, D-Montana, ”specifically highlighting $400 billion in cuts to Medicare funding.” (09/17/2009)	20.8% uninsured 40% support the public option, 47% oppose



Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.)	Feels “very strongly” about his opposition towards any kind of “public option” or “trigger”: “I’m going to be stubborn on this. … The answer is no.” (11/24/2009) “If the public option is still in there, the only resort we have is to say no at the end to reporting the bill off the floor.” (11/22/2009) “I don’t think anybody thinks that this bill will pass as it is.” (11/22/2009) “If the public option plan is in there, as a matter of conscience, I will not allow this bill to come to a final vote, because I believe the debt can break America and send us into a recession that’s worse than the one we’re fighting our way out of today.” (11/08/2009)	9% uninsured 64% support the public option, 30% oppose



Richard Lugar (R-Ind.)	“I would advise the president that the bringing up of the health care situation in the midst of recession … was a mistake. Let’s clear the deck and try it again next year or in subsequent times.” (08/23/2009)	13.9% uninsured 53% support the public option, 40% oppose



John McCain (R-Ariz.)	“A public option, which is really a government option, is not something that will do anything but lead to a government takeover of health care in America.” (08/25/2009)	18.7% uninsured



Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) Senate Minority Leader	“I think if you have any kind of government insurance program, you’re going to be stuck with it and it will lead us in the direction of the European style, you know, sort of British-style, single payer, government run system. And those systems are known for delays, denial of care and, you know, if your particular malady doesn’t fit the government regulation, you don’t get the medication.” (10/29/2009) “A government takeover on the installment plan — or a ‘trigger’ as some are calling it — is still a government takeover.” (09/09/2009)	14.1% uninsured 46% support the public option, 45% oppose



Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska)	“I am not one of those who believes that the best course of action is just to kill this thing. … I think it’s gonna have to be scaled down.“ (08/20/2009) “I think that conventional wisdom is that a public option doesn’t have the support, and will not pass through [the Finance] committee.” (09/11/2009)	20.1% uninsured



Jim Risch (R-Idaho)	“Private entities cannot compete with a government entity.” (09/09/2009) “The President continues to promote the false choice of a complete government takeover or doing nothing.” (09/09/2009)	17.8% uninsured



Pat Roberts (R-Kans.)	“[The public option] won’t work. It hasn’t worked in other countries.” (06/08/2009)	12.2% uninsured



Jeff Sessions (R-Ala.)	“I do think it continues to decline in public support. I can’t imagine that the public option could be a part of that, part of a final bill, but it’s possible. … I think if the will of the American people continues to be expressed, I think that every week that goes by, the threat of a major government takeover is less and less.” (09/03/2009)	14% uninsured



Richard Shelby (R-Ala.)	“As long as the president continues to pursue a government-run plan, I remain in strong opposition.” (09/10/2009)	14% uninsured



Olympia Snowe (R-Maine) Leading advocate of a “trigger” system	“I also support a public plan which must be available from day one — in any state where private plans fail to ensure guaranteed affordable coverage.” (07/22/2009) “I don’t support [an opt-out public option]. … I’ve said, I’m against a public option. … It would be difficult [to vote for cloture on a public option].” (10/22/2009) “I am deeply disappointed with the Majority Leader’s decision to include a public option as the focus of the legislation. I still believe that a fallback, safety net plan, to be triggered and available immediately in states where insurance companies fail to offer plans that meet the standards of affordability, could have been the road toward achieving a broader bipartisan consensus in the Senate.” (10/26/2009)	10.9% uninsured 57.4% support the public option, 37.2% oppose



John Thune (R-S.D.)	“We should be providing incentives to states to reform their insurance markets and expand coverage in ways that work best for them, not a one-size-fits-all program imposed by the federal government.” (08/23/2009)	11.7% uninsured



David Vitter (R-La.)	“Any public option would eventually become the dominant option, and I’m afraid eventually the only option.” (08/25/2009)	17.8% uninsured



George Voinovich (R-Ohio)	“A bureaucratic Washington-run government plan is not the answer. … The last thing we need to do is pass legislation that would expand the government’s role in health care or create new entitlement program without first controlling costs.” (07/23/2009)	11.8% uninsured 57% support the public option, 35% oppose



Roger Wicker (R-Miss.)	“We’re being offered the promise of genuine competition between the public plan and private insurance plans. When, in fact, the purpose is to switch Americans to a European-style single payer plan down the road.” (08/03/2009)	17.9% uninsured

For senators who are on the fence, click here.
For likely supporters, click here.

*Uninsured numbers come from 2008 U.S. Census Bureau data.

Senate Public Option Scoreboard — On the Fence

TWI — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 21:24:09 +0000

On the Fence	Likely Supporters	Likely Opponents
8	51	41

On the Fence
Senator	Stance	Home State Data*


Evan Bayh (D-Ind.)	Rachel Maddow Show: “Sen. Bayh told us it is extraordinarily unlikely that he would filibuster health reform. He said there is nothing in the bill he is aware of now that would cause him to vote to filibuster and he said that he currently ‘can’t think of a set of circumstances’ under which he would vote against cloture.” (10/29/2009) “How you do it isn’t quite as important as the fact that you do it.” (09/10/2009) “Some people argue that we should vote to go forward on a bill even if we don’t like it. [...] I’d like to move forward, but some of that’s going to depend on is it fiscally responsible.” (10/28/2009)	13.9% uninsured 53% support the public option, 40% oppose



Mark Begich (D-Alaska)	“Some people call it a public option, some people call it an exchange, some people call it a co-op. Right now, to be honest, there are not 60 votes for any of those three.” (10/06/2009) “I guess I don‘t want to put the word ‘public option.’ What I‘d rather say is that there‘s going to be some mechanism, I guess, at the end of the day to ensure that insurance companies are held accountable. … What I don‘t want to have happen is that the bill lives or dies by [the public option].” (09/10/2009) “I’m not going to let the bill live or die on that single item.” (11/23/2009)	20.1% uninsured



Tom Carper (D-Del.)	“I think at the end of the day there will be a national plan probably put together not by the federal government but by a non-profit board with some seed money from the federal government that states would initially participate in because of lack of affordability. The question is should there be an opportunity for states to opt out later on and if so, within a year, within two years, within three years?” (10/22/2009) “There may not be enough votes to get the bill [that includes Reid's version of the public option] off the floor and get us to conference.” (10/27/2009)	10.3% uninsured



Kent Conrad (D-N.D.)	“I think all of us have recognized throughout that there are three things” — abortion, illegal immigration and the public option — “that could really bring this down.” (11/10/2009) “I’ve got to see [Reid's 'opt out' proposal] in writing and have scores before I reach any judgment.” (10/27/2009) “A public option tied to Medicare levels of reimbursement is a non-starter for me because I represent North Dakota.” (10/13/2009)	10.5% uninsured



Mary Landrieu (D-La.)	“I have leverage now, I’m using it to the best of my ability, I’m going to use it on the Senate floor.” (11/20/2009) “The public option has been shaped 100 percent better than when it started out. So, it’s already shaped to be a public option that is supported by premiums.” (11/04/2009) “We’re not trying to be Republicans…but we do believe in the free market.” (10/23/2009) “I am pressing to get a government-run, taxpayer-supported public option out of the bill. I want to rely on a reformed private marketplace — not the current wasteful, abusive, unaffordable private market.’’ (10/22/2009) “I’m not right now inclined to support any filibuster.” (10/20/2009)	17.8% uninsured



Blanche Lincoln (D-Ark.)	“Creating another government-funded option is not where we’re going. We don’t need to go there. A government-funded option is something that I think is not the way to go.”(10/27/2009) “Individuals should be able to choose from a range of quality health insurance plans. Options should include private plans as well as a quality, affordable public plan or non-profit plan that can accomplish the same goals of a public plan.” (11/23/2009) “I will not vote in favor of the proposal that has been introduced by Leader Reid as it is written … I do not support the creation of a so-called robust government administered public plan.” (11/21/2009)	18% uninsured 55% support the public option, 38% oppose



Ben Nelson (D-Neb.)	“We could negotiate a public option of some sort that I might look at, but I don’t want a big government, Washington-run operation that would undermine the [...] private insurance that 200 million Americans now have.” (11/22/2009) “If there’s no public option, perhaps some of the problem [with abortion coverage] goes away.” (11/19/2009) “What was interesting in the poll numbers that I saw, that while there’s support for public option generally, generically, when you start talking about it specifically as it relates to states being able to opt out or opt in, have their own, the support overwhelmingly goes up to 76 percent.” (10/20/2009)	11.1% uninsured 39% support the public option, 47% oppose



Mark Pryor (D-Ark.)	“I’m open to a public option. … It depends on how it’s structured on whether I can support it. … I just haven’t decided.” (10/22/2009) “I like the opt-out provision, at least what I know about it so far.” (10/28/2009) “I don’t think you’ll see me or any other Democrats [filibuster a health care bill].” (10/15/2009) “The truth is, I think, for folks who really know what the public option is, they get more comfortable with it. I think originally some folks branded it as just a government takeover of health care and that’s not what it is.” (10/27/2009)	18% uninsured 55% support the public option, 38% oppose

For likely supporters, click here.
For likely opponents, click here.

*Uninsured numbers come from 2008 U.S. Census Bureau data.

Senate Public Option Scoreboard

TWI — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 21:23:59 +0000

As the health care debate twists and turns through the Senate, the prospects for a public option remain murky. This scoreboard, updated daily, can serve as your one-stop shop for senators’ stances on a public plan — in their own words. See our methodology below.

On the Fence	Likely Supporters	Likely Opponents
8	51	41

Click on the numbers in the scoreboard for the lists of senators in each category, including key quotes on their positions and background information that helps explain their perspectives.

Methodology: Classifications are based on senators’ stated positions on the public option — a government-run health insurance program to compete with private insurers. The health bill that ultimately reaches the Senate floor will require 60 votes to overcome a filibuster, so senators are categorized based on their likelihood to vote for cloture, which brings the bill to an up-or-down majority-rule vote. “Likely supporters” are senators who have indicated that they would probably vote for cloture on a bill with a strong, untriggered public option. “Likely opponents” are senators who have indicated that they would not vote for cloture on a bill with any kind of public option. “On the fence” senators have expressed reservations about a strong public option but have not given clear or consistent signals as to whether they will vote for cloture on a bill that contains some form of public option compromise. Given that there are currently 41 “likely opponents” — the entire Republican caucus plus independent Joe Lieberman of Connecticut — a bill containing the public option will not receive an up-or-down vote unless at least one of these senators changes his or her stance.

We will update this scoreboard frequently as senators change and clarify their views on health care legislation. Stop by daily for the latest news!

LOAC Violation Report

TWI — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 18:04:39 +0000

Senate Public Option Scoreboard

TWI — Wed, 16 Sep 2009 11:00:18 +0000

On the Fence	Likely Supporters	Likely Opponents
12	50	38

On the Fence
Senator	Stance	Role in Debate


Max Baucus (D-Mont.)	“The major overall goal here though is to get health care reform that passes the Senate, gets 60 votes, and I just don’t know if there is 60 votes for the most pure kinds of the public option. There may be 60 votes for the less pure kinds.” (10/19/2009) “There are various versions of public option being bandied about. [...] The long and short of it is, this issue is alive.” (10/19/2009) “I don’t know. I don’t know. I don’t know. I just really don’t know [if a public plan can pass].” (10/28/2009) “I want a public option, too!” (08/24/09)	Member of the Gang of Six; chairman of the Finance Committee; released his Finance Committee bill on 9/16; voted against the Rockefeller amendment and the Schumer amendment



Evan Bayh (D-Ind.)	Rachel Maddow Show: “Sen. Bayh told us it is extraordinarily unlikely that he would filibuster health reform. He said there is nothing in the bill he is aware of now that would cause him to vote to filibuster and he said that he currently ‘can’t think of a set of circumstances’ under which he would vote against cloture.” (10/29/2009) “How you do it isn’t quite as important as the fact that you do it.” (09/10/2009) “Some people argue that we should vote to go forward on a bill even if we don’t like it. [...] I’d like to move forward, but some of that’s going to depend on is it fiscally responsible.” (10/28/2009)	Founder of the Moderate Dems Working Group



Mark Begich (D-Alaska)	“Some people call it a public option, some people call it an exchange, some people call it a co-op. Right now, to be honest, there are not 60 votes for any of those three.” (10/06/2009) “I guess I don‘t want to put the word ‘public option.’ What I‘d rather say is that there‘s going to be some mechanism, I guess, at the end of the day to ensure that insurance companies are held accountable. … What I don‘t want to have happen is that the bill lives or dies by [the public option].” (09/10/2009) “He is not committing to supporting a public option.” -Begich’s press secretary (09/02/2009)



Tom Carper (D-Del.)	“I think at the end of the day there will be a national plan probably put together not by the federal government but by a non-profit board with some seed money from the federal government that states would initially participate in because of lack of affordability. The question is should there be an opportunity for states to opt out later on and if so, within a year, within two years, within three years?” (10/22/2009) “There may not be enough votes to get the bill [that includes Reid's version of the public option] off the floor and get us to conference.” (10/27/2009)	Sits on the Finance Committee; voted against the Rockefeller amendment and for the Schumer amendment



Kent Conrad (D-N.D.)	“I think all of us have recognized throughout that there are three things” — abortion, illegal immigration and the public option — “that could really bring this down.” (11/10/2009) “I’ve got to see [Reid's 'opt out' proposal] in writing and have scores before I reach any judgment.” (10/27/2009) “A public option tied to Medicare levels of reimbursement is a non-starter for me because I represent North Dakota.” (10/13/2009)	Leading advocate of a co-op system; member of the Gang of Six; sits on the Finance Committee; voted against the Rockefeller amendment and the Schumer amendment



Mary Landrieu (D-La.)	“The public option has been shaped 100 percent better than when it started out. So, it’s already shaped to be a public option that is supported by premiums.” (11/04/2009) “I conveyed to Leader Reid that a number of moderates still were extremely concerned about a government-run, taxpayer-funded, national public plan. However, I am encouraged that the conversations taking place over the past week among Senators who back different versions of a public option could potentially lead to a compromise. I believe this compromise should happen sooner, rather than later, so we can get to work on other critical aspects of heath care reform.” (10/23/2009) “We’re not trying to be Republicans…but we do believe in the free market.” (10/23/2009) “I’m not right now inclined to support any filibuster.” (10/20/2009)	A key conservative Democrat, Landrieu has expressed opposition to a public option, but seems open to some form of compromise and says she would probably not support a GOP filibuster of a bill with a public option.



George LeMieux (R-Fla.)	“Cutting half a trillion dollars from Medicare (over 10 years) is not budget neutral. Shifting costs to the states for increases in Medicaid is not responsible. And taxing medical and life-savings devices – which will increase, not decrease the cost of health care — is not reform!” (10/21/2009) LeMieux stressed that he had ‘serious concerns’ about the latest health care reform proposal being pushed by Sen. Max Baucus, D-Montana, ”specifically highlighting $400 billion in cuts to Medicare funding.” (09/17/2009)	Sworn in on Sept. 9; has no legislative record



Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.)	“I can’t see a way in which I can vote for cloture on any bill that contained a creation of a government-operated and run insurance company.” (10/27/2009) On whether there’s any wiggle room in his commitment to filibuster a public option: “I don’t feel like wiggling.” (11/10/2009) Lieberman said he was “inclined to let the motion to proceed” (or cloture) go forward, but “I haven’t decided yet.” (10/15/2009) “I’ve told Sen. Reid that if the bill stays as it is now I will vote against cloture.” (10/27/2009)	Connecticut is a deep blue state, but also the hub of the American insurance industry.



Blanche Lincoln (D-Ark.)	“Creating another government-funded option is not where we’re going. We don’t need to go there. A government-funded option is something that I think is not the way to go.”(10/27/2009) “There are many ways to provide greater options and choices to individuals, including non-profits, a state plan, and a co-op plan. … We already have an employer based, private health care system. We are trying to make it more affordable for everyone. We can’t just throw it all out and start over, but we can make it more efficient and more affordable for everyone.” (10/18/2009) “Senator Lincoln has not committed her vote to anyone, she will have to see the legislative language and cost first and will evaluate it based on its impact on Arkansans.” (Lincoln spokeswoman) (10/26/2009)	Sits on the Finance Committee; voted against the Rockefeller amendment and the Schumer amendment



Ben Nelson (D-Neb.)	“I’m not going to make any kind of commitment until I see the bill.” (10/27/2009) “I think there is a legitimate argument for giving the states an option to solve this problem, which is essentially an insurance problem.” (10/06/2009) “What was interesting in the poll numbers that I saw, that while there’s support for public option generally, generically, when you start talking about it specifically as it relates to states being able to opt out or opt in, have their own, the support overwhelmingly goes up to 76 percent.” (10/20/2009)	Will oppose using budget reconciliation to pass a health care bill



Mark Pryor (D-Ark.)	“I’m open to a public option. … It depends on how it’s structured on whether I can support it. … I just haven’t decided.” (10/22/2009) “I like the opt-out provision, at least what I know about it so far.” (10/28/2009) “I don’t think you’ll see me or any other Democrats [filibuster a health care bill].” (10/15/2009) “The truth is, I think, for folks who really know what the public option is, they get more comfortable with it. I think originally some folks branded it as just a government takeover of health care and that’s not what it is.” (10/27/2009)



Olympia Snowe (R-Maine)	“I also support a public plan which must be available from day one — in any state where private plans fail to ensure guaranteed affordable coverage.” (07/22/2009) “I don’t support [an opt-out public option]. … I’ve said, I’m against a public option. … It would be difficult [to vote for cloture on a public option].” (10/22/2009) “I am deeply disappointed with the Majority Leader’s decision to include a public option as the focus of the legislation. I still believe that a fallback, safety net plan, to be triggered and available immediately in states where insurance companies fail to offer plans that meet the standards of affordability, could have been the road toward achieving a broader bipartisan consensus in the Senate.” (10/26/2009)	Opposes most forms of a public option, but is the leading advocate of a “trigger” system; member of the Gang of Six; sits on the Finance Committee; voted against the Rockefeller amendment and the Schumer amendment; voted for the Baucus bill; signaled that she will vote against Reid’s “opt out” proposal, if no changes are made

Likely Supporters
Senator	Stance	Role in Debate



Daniel K. Akaka (D-Hawaii)	Signed a public letter saying “the surefire way to guarantee affordable and meaningful coverage for all is by giving citizens a choice between private insurance and a public alternative.” (05/06/2009)



Michael Bennet (D-Colo.)	“Any health care reform bill should control costs, allow people to keep their own medical plan and their own doctor, increase competition, and increase coverage — all in a fiscally responsible way. I also believe providing patients with a public insurance option — that increases competition and drives down prices — would help to achieve these goals.” (08/08/2009)



Jeff Bingaman (D-N.M.)	“My preference would be to do it through a public option but if some other decision was made to do it through a co-op or some other avenue I don’t think that’s the end of the world.” (08/08/2009)	Member of the Gang of Six; sits on the HELP and Finance Committees; voted for the Rockefeller amendment and the Schumer amendment



Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.)	“We need competition, which is what a public option would bring us.” (09/08/2009)



Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio)	“[I]‘m not going to say I will not support it if it doesn’t have [a public option]. It’s not the only thing that matters in this bill. Guaranteed issue is very important … insurance reform is very important.” (09/03/2009) “If the insurance companies are satisfied with this bill it’s not a good bill.” (09/03/2009)	Sits on the HELP Committee



Roland Burris (D-Ill.)	“I firmly believe in a public option and will oppose any bill that does not include one.” (09/16/2009)



Robert Byrd (D-W.Va.)	“Let us stop the shouting and name calling and have a civilized debate on health care reform which I hope, when legislation has been signed into law, will bear [Ted Kennedy's] name for his commitment to insuring the health of every American.” (08/26/2009)	Called Ted Kennedy his “best friend in the Senate”; his poor health might prevent him from voting.



Maria Cantwell (D-Wash.)	“I wouldn’t vote for a bill that doesn’t have Medicare reform and the public option. What would I tell the people in Washington state?” (09/16/2009)	Sits on the Finance Committee; voted for the Rockefeller amendment and the Schumer amendment



Ben Cardin (D-Md.)	“I think the public option is important. I think it’s important because you need to have an affordable option available for people.” (08/23/2009)



Bob Casey (D-Pa.)	“I believe people should have a choice, and it gives people — the public option gives people another choice, along with a lot of choices that are in the private marketplace.” (08/31/2009)	Sits on the HELP Committee



Chris Dodd (D-Conn.)	“I don’t know if we have the votes to pass a strong public health care option. […] What I do know is that I plan to fight hard to convince my colleagues on the committee and in the full Senate that we need a public option.” (06/19/2009)	Sits on the HELP Committee; presided over HELP Committee bill’s passage in Sen. Ted Kennedy’s (D-Mass.) absence



Byron Dorgan (D-N.D.)	“Yes I do [support a public option].” (08/21/2009) “First of all, I think it’s important that people who are satisfied with the health plan they have know that they can keep that coverage.” (08/21/2009)



Richard Durbin (D-Ill.)	“I support a public option, but, yes, I am open.” (08/09/2009)	Senate Majority Whip



Russ Feingold (D-Wis.)	“We need a public option. We need something that would cause some control over the abuses that have occurred in the insurance industry.” (10/25/2009)



Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.)	“I think the public option with an opt out is the right way to go.” (10/27/2009) “The public option should be one of a variety of choices for people who want improved coverage.” (08/28/2009) “I am also open to considering a non-profit co-operative model, as long as it can accomplish the critical goal of controlling premium costs and spurring competition.” (08/28/2009)



Al Franken (D-Minn.)	“I think that we can use the public option to cut costs because private health insurers will have to compete with it. The public option also doesn’t have to make a profit so we can focus more on integrating care and coordinating health care homes and increasing quality to bring down costs.” (09/02/2009)	Sits on the HELP Committee



Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.)	“I plan to stand with the president so that we move forward on meaningful health care reform. I continue to support a robust public option that can compete with private health insurance and drive down health care costs for everyone.” (09/10/2009)



Kay Hagan (D-N.C.)	“We have crafted a plan that will stabilize health care costs and includes a Community Health Insurance Option, which I support.” (07/02/2009)	Sits on the HELP Committee



Tom Harkin (D-Iowa)	“Mark my word — I’m the chairman — it’s going to have a strong public option.” (09/13/2009) “The vast majority of the Democratic caucus is for the public option that is in the HELP bill. Should the 52 give in to the five, or should the five come along with the majority?” (10/16/2009)	Chairman of the HELP Committee



Daniel Inouye (D-Hawaii)	Signed a public letter saying “the surefire way to guarantee affordable and meaningful coverage for all is by giving citizens a choice between private insurance and a public alternative.” (05/06/2009)



Tim Johnson (D-S.D.)	“A public option would simply be a government insurance plan that people could choose if they liked it better than the private insurance plans available to them. Americans who are not offered insurance through their employer or cannot afford private insurance plans need an affordable option.”



Ted Kaufman (D-Del.)	“A public option – where the consumer has the opportunity to keep their current insurance or choose the public option, if no competitor is available – gives Americans a greater range of choices, makes the health care market more competitive, and keeps insurance companies honest.” (08/29/2009)



John Kerry (D-Mass.)	“Sen. Kerry supports a robust public plan, that like Medicare, would be available to everyone from coast-to-coast.” (Kerry spokesman) (07/09/2009) “Majority Leader Reid is taking the gutsy and appropriate road in fighting for the right policy, something the American people want and an issue on which every Senator should be held accountable. That’s why I voted for it in the Finance Committee and why I’ve advocated for it since day one.” (10/26/2009)	Sits on the Finance Committee; voted for the Rockefeller amendment and the Schumer amendment



Paul Kirk (D-Mass.)	“Senator Kirk believes there should be a public option to keep costs down and keep insurance companies honest.” (Kirk spokesman) (09/28/2009)	Sworn in on Sept. 24 to replace the late Sen. Edward Kennedy (D-Mass.)



Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.)	“I would prefer a public option that would be a competitive option that would allow people to buy into a Federal Employee Health Benefits Program, which is a series of private plans.” (09/02/2009)



Herb Kohl (D-Wis.)	“Ideally, I think health reform should include some type of a public option.” (06/20/2009)



Frank Lautenberg (D-N.J.)	“Greater choice and greater competition helps ensure consumers can get real coverage at more affordable prices and should be a part of national health care reform.” (05/21/2009)



Patrick Leahy (D-Vt.)	“Competition among private insurers has not driven down costs to consumers and the current private insurance market has a clear incentive to offer coverage only to the healthiest Americans. Comprehensive health care reform can change this calculus and that is why I support the creation of a federally backed, public health insurance option.” (05/21/2009)



Carl Levin (D-Mich.)	We must “explore all possible health insurance options, including a federally-backed health insurance pool.” (05/21/2009)



Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.)	“I’ll vote for the public option. But I’m focused on these deficit costs, on how can we reconfigure the way we pay for health care in a way that, long term, will begin to have an impact on these deficits that are really going to threaten the security of our nation in the next 10 to 20 years, if we don’t get serious about it.” (10/25/2009) “I think there’s a chance that we’ll have some kind of public option. But it probably will be a very moderate program that will be severely limited in terms of its ability to grow … and who can access it.” (10/05/2009) “I can’t support a bill that will allow the public option to become the public mandate.” (08/31/2009) “If it’s constrained, I’d vote yes.” (08/31/2009)



Robert Menendez (D-N.J.)	“By ensuring that families have a real choice of health insurance options – and that one of those choices is a quality, federally-backed plan – we can help guarantee that families will have good options for health care.” (05/21/2009) “We need a public option to increase competition, keep insurers honest, drive down costs.” (09/29/2009)	Sits on the Finance Committee; voted for the Rockefeller amendment and the Schumer amendment



Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.)	“A public option will provide competition that will keep private insurance companies honest and help improve service and lower health care costs for everyone.” (05/21/2009)	Sits on the HELP Committee



Barbara A. Mikulski (D-Md.)	“I say there is no option but a public option. For those who say we need a trigger, I say, ‘be careful; you could be shooting down health care.’” (06/2009)	Sits on the HELP Committee



Patty Murray (D-Wash.)	“What we are trying to do is create a competitive pool of insurance options, including a public option.” (08/20/2009) “I support the President’s vision of a public plan.” (09/09/2009)	Sits on the HELP Committee



Bill Nelson (D-Fla.)	Supports a public option but wants to ensure that states cannot opt out for several years: “My concern is you don’t even get the competition from a public option to begin with because the insurance lobby will lock down its votes. The people will never know in that state or not if a public option would lower their rates. (10/27/2009) “I have come down on the side of voting for the Schumer [public option] amendment,” Nelson told the Senate Finance Committee on Sept. 29. “[Public option advocates] don’t have a clue” about the logistics of a public plan. “The whole thing is so complicated you can’t expect them to understand. … If a co-op serves the same purpose, what’s the big deal? … You can’t get 60 votes in the Senate [for a public option]. I’m trying to get something passed.” (09/16/2009) “He’s keeping an open mind on co-ops, public options and other possible proposals, but believes there aren’t enough votes in the Senate to pass a public-option plan,” a Nelson spokesman told TWI on Sept. 17.	Sits on the Finance Committee; ; voted against the Rockefeller amendment and for the Schumer amendment



Jack Reed (D-R.I.)	“[The HELP bill] provided this public option so that it would be a fair competitor with private insurance. Not displace private insurance.” (07/25/2009) “[Co-ops] could be a fallback position if we cannot muster the support for the public option as it’s come out of the committee. I hope we can muster the support, though.” (07/25/2009)	Sits on the HELP Committee



Harry Reid (D-Nev.)	“I’ve told people, whoever will listen, that I am in favor of the public option.” (08/28/2009) “But there are many ways we can do it. One would be to have an entity like Medicare. I really don’t favor that. I think what we should have is a private entity that has direction from the federal government.” (08/28/2009) “Reid continues to believe that at the end of the day, some form of a public option that creates competition and lowers costs for consumers will be included in any Senate proposal.” (Reid office statement) (10/05/2009)	Senate Majority Leader; top recipient of health industry campaign donations this year



Jay Rockefeller (D-W.Va.)	“I believe the inclusion of a strong public plan option in health reform legislation is a must. It is the only proven way to guarantee that all consumers have affordable, meaningful and accountable options available in the health insurance marketplace.” (08/16/2009)	Sits on the Finance Committee; voted for the Rockefeller amendment and the Schumer amendment



Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.)	“Our job both from a public policy point of view and a political point of view is to give our constituents what they want and that is a strong public option.” (10/27/2009) “I am a strong advocate of a public option. I think that is one mechanism to keep the private insurance companies honest. If you’re serious about cost containment you have to do that and so my strong hope and expectation is there will be a strong public option in any health care bill that is passed.“ (08/17/2009)	The only senator to sponsor a single-payer bill since the 1990s; sits on the HELP Committee



Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.)	“We are going to come together on a public option. … I have talked to every moderate senator. Every one of them is interested, is open to a public option.” (10/04/2009) “I have faith in Harry Reid to get the 60 votes.” (10/27/2009) “I personally don’t particularly like the trigger, particularly if its three years or four years down the road. It depends on how you set up the trigger, but [if] your measure is concentration in the insurance industry and the lack of competition as a result of that concentration — we’re there already.” (09/09/2009)	Sits on the Finance Committee; top recipient of insurance industry campaign donations this year; voted for the Rockefeller amendment and and the Schumer amendment



Arlen Specter (D-Pa.)	“This U.S. Senator is going to tell him (the President) emphatically that we need the public option.” (09/09/2009) “I think the likelihood is there are 50 plus votes among the Democrats in the Senate to have a robust public option, without an opt out, with a trigger, without any condition.” (10/22/2009)



Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.)	“I am a supporter of the public option. … But I think it’s important to stay focused on what we’re trying to accomplish. … There are a number of ways to get there.” (09/13/2009)



Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.)	“Well, I support a public option. I did it in committee.” (10/05/2009) “[The public option] is only a part of reform. It is an important part. Those of us on the inside are looking at what we can do and looking at the votes.” (08/18/2009)	Sits on the Finance Committee; voted for the Rockefeller amendment and the Schumer amendment



Jon Tester (D-Mont.)	“We need competition, and if we get a public option that will help Montana. I will support it.” (10/28/2009) “I don’t need [the public option] either way. I could either support it or not support it. It’s all in the design.” (08/26/2009)




Mark Udall (D-Colo.)	“I support the President’s plan to include the public option as a tool help reform our broken health care system. But above all, any reform must be done in a deficit-neutral way and must provide choice, stability and security for those who have insurance.” (09/10/2009)



Tom Udall (D-N.M.)	“I hope we’ll be able to put a bill on the floor that will have a public option.” (09/03/2009)



Mark Warner (D-Va.)	“It’s not a make or break thing–he wants to see a health reform bill that contains costs, and if it includes a public option…he would vote for it.” (Warner spokesman) (08/24/2009) “I want to make sure there are some competitive alternatives to the insurance companies. But I’m concerned that simply expanding Medicare and Medicaid without getting the financial incentives right — it’s going to again end up driving up the deficit costs.” (08/24/2009)



Jim Webb (D-Va.)	“There is no reason to believe that private insurers alone will meet the public purpose of ensuring coverage for all American at an affordable price for taxpayers.” (06/25/2009)



Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.)	“I think we’re taking reckless chances if we don’t include a public option, so I’m a very strong supporter of it. Is it possible that we could solve the problem without it? I suppose hypothetically, but I think it would be a mistake.” (08/21/2009)



Ron Wyden (D-Ore.)	“I am very open to the public option, to anything that will contain health care costs. We have to have choices.” (09/03/2009) “When you have a prestigious medical organization like Mayo Clinic saying that they could accept a public option if it was like what members of Congress get … that’s a real breakthrough.” (09/22/2009)	Co-wrote the Wyden-Bennett health reform bill, which restructures the private insurance market without a public option; sits on the Finance Committee; voted for the Rockefeller amendment and the Schumer amendment

Likely Opponents
Senator	Stance	Role in Debate



Lamar Alexander (R-Tenn.)	“Thumbing their nose at the American people by ramming through a partisan bill would be the same thing as going to war without asking Congress’ permission. You might technically be able to do it, but you’d pay a terrible price in the next election.” (09/06/2009) “Let’s do it step-by-step. Let’s don’t try to change the whole system at once.” (09/06/2009)	Sits on the HELP Committee



John Barrasso (R-Wyo.)	“What I’m hearing all across the country is ‘kill the bill.’” (08/28/2009)



Robert Bennett (R-Utah)	“If it has a public option in it, even one that is described as a co-op, the answer is: ‘No.’” (08/26/2009)	Co-wrote the Wyden-Bennett health reform bill, which restructures the private insurance market without a public option.



Kit Bond (R-Mo.)	“I don’t want to see government-controlled co-ops or triggers, anything like that. It’s a gateway drug to a public option.” (09/09/2009) “The only bipartisan thing about this whole bill is the opposition to the plan.” (09/09/2009)



Sam Brownback (R-Kans.)	“I call on the President and the Congressional leadership to stop the current attempts to push massive and expensive health care reform through Congress.” (08/27/2009)



Jim Bunning (R-Ky.)	“I do not support a government-run health care program. I believe it will kill private insurance.” (09/09/2009) “We will see if Congress and the Obama administration … continue to ignore the will of the people in an effort to force their liberal agenda down our throats.” (09/09/2009)	Sits on the Finance Committee; voted against the Rockefeller amendment and the Schumer amendment



Richard Burr (R-N.C.)	“We’re leaving to an elected official the ability at any point now, five years from now ten years from now, to write the rules on mandates in a way the private sector couldn’t compete with the government option, that’s just not a smart thing for the congress to do.” (08/14/2009) “I am willing to entertain [the co-op proposal.] However, if these co-ops are financed or run by the federal government, then they are no better than the public option and are just federally run health care under a different name.” (08/18/2009)	Sits on the HELP Committee



Saxby Chambliss (R-Ga.)	“Every individual has the right to choose their own doctor and that’s why I’m opposed to universal health care.” (09/01/2009)



Tom Coburn (R-Okla.)	“As a practicing physician, I have seen first-hand how giving government more control over health care has failed to make health care more affordable and accessible.”(05/20/2009) “Is it efficient to care for the people in Northwest Arkansas by sending money to Washington … or could you as a community figure out a way to do it better, which by the way is constitutional? … There is no compassion in any government program.” (09/06/2009)	Sits on the HELP Committee



Thad Cochran (R-Miss.)	“I don’t think the Senate is going to endorse the House work product.” (08/2009)



Susan Collins (R-Maine)	“I’m opposed to a Washington-run public option. I believe it would cause many people to lose health insurance that they’re currently happy with now, and that’s contrary to the assurances that advocates of the public option have been giving. I’m also concerned about the cost and control issue.” (09/08/2009) “The problem with the trigger is it just delays the public option.” (09/08/2009)



Bob Corker (R-Tenn.)	“I don’t think a public option will be part of a final package. While I think certainly the president will mention that in a speech Wednesday night, I do not think it’s going to be a part of a plan that passes unless it’s done through reconciliation, which to me is not the route to go.” (09/08/2009)



John Cornyn (R-Texas)	“[A public plan] would eventually undermine all the private-sector competition because the government could set a price that nobody could survive with.” (07/02/2009)	Sits on the Finance Committee; voted against the Rockefeller amendment and the Schumer amendment



Mike Crapo (R-Idaho)	“The battle in our country over whether to shift to a government option in health care is an overarching one that we have to get past.” (09/09/2009)	Sits on the Finance Committee; voted against the Rockefeller amendment and the Schumer amendment



Jim DeMint (R-S.C.)	“If we’re able to stop Obama on this it will be his Waterloo. It will break him.” (07/17/2009) “Any Republican now that helps them pass a bill is helping them pass a government takeover of health care.” (08/17/2009)



John Ensign (R-Nev.)	“[A public option] will destroy, I believe, and most believe, that it will destroy the private insurance system.” (09/25/2009) “I hope people don’t politicize Sen. Kennedy’s death and use it to pass a bill.” (09/25/2009)	Sits on the Finance Committee; voted against the Rockefeller amendment and the Schumer amendment



Mike Enzi (R-Wyo.)	“For millions of Americans, the government-run plan would turn into a bureaucratic nightmare.” (08/19/2009) “I can count votes, and I know that a government-run plan will not pass in the Senate.” (08/19/2009)	Member of the Gang of Six; ranking member of the HELP Committee; sits on the Finance Committee; voted against the Rockefeller amendment and the Schumer amendment



Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.)	“My belief is that no private-sector entity can survive over a long period of time competing against the government.” (08/08/2009) “The public option has been roundly rejected by the public. The public is smart.” (10/26/2009)



Charles Grassley (R-Iowa)	“The simple truth is that I am and always have been opposed to the Obama Administration’s plans to nationalize health care. Period.” (08/2009) “I see [co-ops] as an opportunity to enhance health-care competition — just as cooperatives do in other areas of the economy.” (08/18/2009)	Member of the Gang of Six; ranking member of the Finance Committee; voted against the Rockefeller amendment and the Schumer amendment



Judd Gregg (R-N.H.)	“A public plan is essentially a stalking horse for a single-payer plan. It is more than the camel’s nose under the tent. It is the camel’s neck, and probably front legs, under the tent. There is no way the private sector will be able to compete.” (09/12/2009) “We shouldn’t push [those 170 million Americans who already have health insurance] into a public plan by creating a system which basically disincentivizes their employers to give them health care.” (10/28/2009)	Sits on the HELP and Finance Committees; voted against the Rockefeller amendment and the Schumer amendment



Orrin Hatch (R-Utah)	“They’re trying to put through a government plan, one way or the other, that will have everything run right out of Washington. I mean, look, it just doesn’t work that way.” (09/15/2009) “Sooner or later they’re going to do away with the private insurance market, which would be a catastrophe.” (08/26/2009)	Sits on the HELP and Finance Committees; voted against the Rockefeller amendment and the Schumer amendment



Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-Texas)	“If the president truly wants to bring America together and have Republicans sign onto this, he really does need to start all over with a new blueprint.” (09/09/2009)



James Inhofe (R-Okla.)	“Many in Washington believe the answer rests in a bureaucratically managed, one-size-fits-all, government health care program that includes what advocates call a ‘public option’. I strongly disagree and reject this approach.” (08/11/2009) “We can stall it. And that’s going to be a huge gain for those of us who want to turn this thing over in the 2010 election.” (07/22/2009)



Johnny Isakson (R-Ga.)	“I am not going to be a part of mortgaging my kids’ futures by driving Americans to a government-run health care system we can’t afford.” (09/10/2009)	Sits on the HELP Committee



Mike Johanns (R-Neb.)	“President Obama continues to press for a government-run option and I cannot support that.” (09/11/2009)



Jon Kyl (R-Ariz.)	“There is no way that Republicans are going to support a trillion-dollar-plus bill. … No matter how bad things are, Congress can always make things worse.” (08/18/2009) “I agree that states should have the option to opt in. But I don’t even know if they have this provision written yet. I certainly haven’t seen it.” (10/27/2009) Kyl’s office (in response to preceding quote): “Today’s report in The Hill regarding Senator Kyl’s position on an ‘opt-in’ for a government insurance plan is inaccurate. His statement was taken completely out of context, and he, along with every member of our caucus, does not support a government-run insurance plan in any form. Everyone who has been following this debate should know Senator Kyl has been leading the charge against a government takeover of our health-care system.” (10/28/2009)	Senate Minority Whip; sits on the Finance Committee; voted against the Rockefeller amendment and the Schumer amendment



Richard Lugar (R-Ind.)	“I would advise the president that the bringing up of the health care situation in the midst of recession … was a mistake. Let’s clear the deck and try it again next year or in subsequent times.” (08/23/2009)



John McCain (R-Ariz.)	“A public option, which is really a government option, is not something that will do anything but lead to a government takeover of health care in America.” (08/25/2009)	Sits on the HELP Committee



Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.)	“I think I can pretty safely say there aren’t any Senate Republicans who think a government plan is a good idea.” (07/26/2009) “A government takeover on the installment plan — or a ‘trigger’ as some are calling it — is still a government takeover.” (09/09/2009)	Senate Minority Leader



Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska)	“I am not one of those who believes that the best course of action is just to kill this thing. … I think it’s gonna have to be scaled down.“ (08/20/2009) “I think that conventional wisdom is that a public option doesn’t have the support, and will not pass through [the Finance] committee.” (09/11/2009)	Sits on the HELP Committee



Jim Risch (R-Idaho)	“Private entities cannot compete with a government entity.” (09/09/2009) “The President continues to promote the false choice of a complete government takeover or doing nothing.” (09/09/2009)



Pat Roberts (R-Kans.)	“[The public option] won’t work. It hasn’t worked in other countries.” (06/08/2009)	Sits on the HELP and Finance Committees; voted against the Rockefeller amendment and the Schumer amendment



Jeff Sessions (R-Ala.)	“I do think it continues to decline in public support. I can’t imagine that the public option could be a part of that, part of a final bill, but it’s possible. … I think if the will of the American people continues to be expressed, I think that every week that goes by, the threat of a major government takeover is less and less.” (09/03/2009)



Richard Shelby (R-Ala.)	“As long as the president continues to pursue a government-run plan, I remain in strong opposition.” (09/10/2009)



John Thune (R-S.D.)	“We should be providing incentives to states to reform their insurance markets and expand coverage in ways that work best for them, not a one-size-fits-all program imposed by the federal government.” (08/23/2009)



David Vitter (R-La.)	“Any public option would eventually become the dominant option, and I’m afraid eventually the only option.” (08/25/2009)



George Voinovich (R-Ohio)	“A bureaucratic Washington-run government plan is not the answer. … The last thing we need to do is pass legislation that would expand the government’s role in health care or create new entitlement program without first controlling costs.” (07/23/2009)



Roger Wicker (R-Miss.)	“We’re being offered the promise of genuine competition between the public plan and private insurance plans. When, in fact, the purpose is to switch Americans to a European-style single payer plan down the road.” (08/03/2009)

Methodology: Classifications are based on senators’ stated positions on the public option — a government-run health insurance program to compete with private insurers. “Likely supporters” are senators who have indicated that they would probably vote for a bill with a strong, untriggered public option. “Likely opponents” are senators who have indicated that they would not vote for a bill with any kind of public option. “On the fence” senators have expressed reservations about a strong public option, displayed openness to weaker public option proposals (such as a trigger or an opt-in or opt-out option), or, in the case of Sen. George LeMieux (R-Fla.), have not yet expressed any views on the public option. These classifications are necessarily fluid and inexact. Sen. Max Baucus (D-Mont.), for example, has expressed support for a public option, but he has said that a public option could not pass the Senate, and his Finance Committee bill does not contain a public option; he is listed as “on the fence.”

It also bears noting that while people tend to toss around 60 votes as the magic number for passage, 50 supporters could theoretically suffice here. Some conservative Democrats, like Mary Landrieu (La.), have expressed strong reservations about the public option yet say they are unlikely to support a filibuster. If all Democrats and Independents vote for cloture, only 50 votes (plus Vice President Biden’s tie-breaker) would be needed for passage.

We will update this scoreboard frequently as senators change and clarify their views on health care legislation. Stop by daily for the latest news!

Sen. Ted Kennedy, 1932-2009

TWI — Wed, 26 Aug 2009 15:27:22 +0000

Ted Kennedy, pictured in 2006 (WDCpix)

In memory of Sen. Ted Kennedy, TWI has compiled its recent coverage of the senator and the effect his passing will have on the country.

Kennedy’s Defense Contractor Legacy (8/27/09)

by Spencer Ackerman

Kennedy’s relationship with defense contractors

‘Honor Senator Kennedy’ (8/26/09)

by David Weigel

The Progressive Change Campaign Committee’s new Website pushing for health reform

The Courting of Ted Kennedy, 2008 (8/26/09)

by David Weigel

Revelations on the steps leading to Kennedy’s endorsement of Barack Obama

Ted Kennedy’s Foreign Policy Legacy (8/26/09)

by Spencer Ackerman

Kennedy’s imprint on human rights refugee issues

Immigration Advocates Mourn Kennedy’s Passing (8/26/09)

by Daphne Eviatar

Tributes to Kennedy’s commitment to immigration reform

Orrin Hatch’s Song for Ted Kennedy (8/26/09)

by David Weigel

Video of the Utah senator’s tribute to Kennedy

DCCC: ‘Pick Up the Torch’ to Pass a Health Care Bill (8/26/09)

by David Weigel

Rep. Chris Van Hollen’s (D-Md.) email pushing for a renewed fight for health care in Kennedy’s honor

Republicans Pay Tribute to Kennedy (8/26/09)

by David Weigel

Republican responses to Kennedy’s passing

Kennedy’s Rattled Reaction to Colin Powell’s 2003 U.N. Presentation on Iraq (8/26/09)

by Spencer Ackerman

Video of Kennedy’s response to Powell’s fateful speech on the threat posed by Saddam Hussein

What Would Kennedy Do? (8/26/09)

by Daphne Eviatar

Balancing political considerations and the need for justice in torture prosecutions

Ted Kennedy, in 2007, Opposing the Surge (8/26/09)

by Spencer Ackerman

Video of Kennedy’s passionate opposition to the troop surge in Iraq in January 2007

Republicans and the Kennedy Seat (8/26/09)

by David Weigel

The GOP’s prospects for taking Kennedy’s U.S. Senate seat in a special election

Ted Kennedy, 1932-2009 (8/26/09)

by Matthew DeLong

News of Kennedy’s passing, and statements from the Kennedy family and President Obama

On a Grim, Sad Note … (8/20/09)

by Mike Lillis

Kennedy’s efforts to change Massachusetts law to allow Gov. Deval Patrick to replace him after his death

Kennedy Out for the Year (9/8/08)

by Mike Lillis

News that Kennedy would not return to the Senate in 2008

Ted Kennedy Liveblogging (8/25/08)

by Spencer Ackerman

Kennedy’s speech endorsing Barack Obama at the Democratic National Convention

Col. Timothy Reese: ‘It’s Time for the US to Declare Victory and Go Home’

TWI — Thu, 30 Jul 2009 16:13:42 +0000

It’s Time for the US to Declare Victory and Go Home

As the old saying goes, “guests, like fish, begin to smell after three days.” Since the signing of the 2009 Security Agreement, we are guests in Iraq, and after six years in Iraq, we now smell bad to the Iraqi nose. Today the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) are good enough to keep the Government of Iraq (GOI) from being overthrown by the actions of Al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI), the Baathists, and the Shia violent extremists that might have toppled it a year or two ago. Iraq may well collapse into chaos of other causes, but we have made the ISF strong enough for the internal security mission. Perhaps it is one of those infamous paradoxes of counterinsurgency that while the ISF is not good in any objective sense, it is good enough for Iraq in 2009. Despite this foreboding disclaimer about an unstable future for Iraq, the United States has achieved our objectives in Iraq. Prime Minister (PM) Maliki hailed June 30th as a “great victory,” implying the victory was over the US. Leaving aside his childish chest pounding, he was more right than he knew. We too ought to declare victory and bring our combat forces home. Due to our tendency to look after the tactical details and miss the proverbial forest for the trees, this critically important strategic realization is in danger of being missed.

Equally important to realize is that we aren’t making the GOI and the ISF better in any significant ways with our current approach. Remaining in Iraq through the end of December 2011 will yield little in the way of improving the abilities of the ISF or the functioning of the GOI. Furthermore, in light of the GOI’s current interpretation of the limitations imposed by the 30 June milestones of the 2008 Security Agreement, the security of US forces are at risk. Iraq is not a country with a history of treating even its welcomed guests well. This is not to say we can be defeated, only that the danger of a violent incident that will rupture the current partnership has greatly increased since 30 June. Such a rupture would force an unplanned early departure that would harm our long term interests in Iraq and potentially unraveling the great good that has been done since 2003. The use of the military instrument of national power in its current form has accomplished all that can be expected. In the next section I will present and admittedly one sided view of the evidence in support of this view. This information is drawn solely from the MND-B area of operations in Baghdad Province. My reading of reports from the other provinces suggests the same situation exists there.

The general lack of progress in essential services and good governance is now so broad that it ought to be clear that we no longer are moving the Iraqis “forward.” Below is an outline of the information on which I base this assessment:

1. The ineffectiveness and corruption of GOI Ministries is the stuff of legend.

2. The anti-corruption drive is little more than a campaign tool for Maliki

3. The GOI is failing to take rational steps to improve its electrical infrastructure and to improve their oil exploration, production and exports.

4. There is no progress towards resolving the Kirkuk situation.

5. Sunni Reconciliation is at best at a standstill and probably going backwards.

6. Sons of Iraq (SOI) or Sahwa transition to ISF and GOI civil service is not happening, and SOI monthly paydays continue to fall further behind.

7. The Kurdish situation continues to fester.

8. Political violence and intimidation is rampant in the civilian community as well as military and legal institutions.

9. The Vice President received a rather cool reception this past weekend and was publicly told that the internal affairs of Iraq are none of the US’s business.

The rate of improvement of the ISF is far slower than it should be given the amount of effort and resources being provided by the US. The US has made tremendous progress in building the ISF. Our initial efforts in 2003 to mid-2004 were only marginally successful. From 2004 to 2006 the US built the ISF into a fighting force. Since the start of the surge in 2007 we have again expanded and improved the ISF. They are now at the point where they have defeated the organized insurgency against the GOI and are marginally self-sustaining. This is a remarkable tale for which many can be justifiably proud. We have reached the point of diminishing returns, however, and need to find a new set of tools. The massive partnering efforts of US combat forces with ISF isn’t yielding benefits commensurate with the effort and is now generating its own opposition. Again, some touch points for this assessment are:

1. If there ever was a window where the seeds of a professional military culture could have been implanted, it is now long past. US combat forces will not be here long enough or with sufficient influence to change it.

2. The military culture of the Baathist-Soviet model under Saddam Hussein remains entrenched and will not change. The senior leadership of the ISF is incapable of change in the current environment.

a) Corruption among officers is widespread

b) Neglect and mistreatment of enlisted men is the norm

c) The unwillingness to accept a role for the NCO corps continues

d) Cronyism and nepotism are rampant in the assignment and promotion system

e) Laziness is endemic

f) Extreme centralization of C2 is the norm

g) Lack of initiative is legion

h) Unwillingness to change, do anything new blocks progress

i) Near total ineffectiveness of the Iraq Army and National Police institutional organizations and systems prevents the ISF from becoming self-sustaining

j) For every positive story about a good ISF junior officer with initiative, or an ISF commander who conducts a rehearsal or an after action review or some individual MOS training event, there are ten examples of the most basic lack of military understanding despite the massive partnership efforts by our combat forces and advisory efforts by MiTT and NPTT teams.

3. For all the fawning praise we bestow on the Baghdad Operations Command (BOC) and Ministry of Defense (MoD) leadership for their effectiveness since the start of the surge, they are flawed in serious ways. Below are some salient examples:

a) They are unable to plan ahead, unable to secure the PM’s approval for their actions

b) They are unable to stand up to Shiite political parties

c) They were and are unable to conduct an public relations effort in support of the SA and now they are afraid of the ignorant masses as a result

d) They unable to instill discipline among their officers and units for the most basic military standards

e) They are unable to stop the nepotism and cronyism

f) They are unable to take basic steps to manage the force development process

g) They are unable to stick to their deals with US leaders

It is clear that the 30 Jun milestone does not represent one small step in a long series of gradual steps on the path the US withdrawal, but as Maliki has termed it, a “great victory” over the Americans and fundamental change in our relationship. The recent impact of this mentality on military operations is evident:

1. Iraqi Ground Forces Command (IGFC) unilateral restrictions on US forces that violate the most basic aspects of the SA

2. BOC unilateral restrictions that violate the most basic aspects of the SA

3. International Zone incidents in the last week where ISF forces have resorted to shows of force to get their way at Entry Control Points (ECP) including the forcible takeover of ECP 1 on 4 July

4. Sudden coolness to advisors and CDRs, lack of invitations to meetings,

5. Widespread partnership problems reported in other areas such as ISF confronting US forces at TCPs in the city of Baghdad and other major cities in Iraq.

6. ISF units are far less likely to want to conduct combined combat operations with US forces, to go after targets the US considers high value, etc.

7. The Iraqi legal system in the Rusafa side of Baghdad has demonstrated a recent willingness to release individuals originally detained by the US for attacks on the US.

Yet despite all their grievous shortcomings noted above, ISF military capability is sufficient to handle the current level of threats from Sunni and Shiite violent groups. Our combat forces’ presence here on the streets and in the rural areas adds only marginally to their capability while exposing us to attacks to which we cannot effectively respond.

The GOI and the ISF will not be toppled by the violence as they might have been between 2006 and 2008. Though two weeks does not make a trend, the near cessation of attacks since 30 June speaks volumes about how easily Shiite violence can be controlled and speaks to the utter weakness of AQI. The extent of AQ influence in Iraq is so limited as to be insignificant, only when they get lucky with a mass casualty attack are they relevant. Shiite groups are working with the PM and his political allies, or plotting to work against him in the upcoming elections. We are merely convenient targets for delivering a message against Maliki by certain groups, and perhaps by Maliki when he wants us to be targeted. Extremist violence from all groups is directed towards affecting their political standing within the existing power structures of Iraq. There is no longer any coherent insurgency or serious threat to the stability of the GOI posed by violent groups.

Our combat operations are currently the victim of circular logic. We conduct operations to kill or capture violent extremists of all types to protect the Iraqi people and support the GOI. The violent extremists attack us because we are still here conducting military operations. Furthermore, their attacks on us are no longer an organized campaign to defeat our will to stay; the attacks which kill and maim US combat troops are signals or messages sent by various groups as part of the political struggle for power in Iraq. The exception to this is AQI which continues is globalist terror campaign. Our operations are in support of an Iraqi government that no longer relishes our help while at the same time our operations generate the extremist opposition to us as various groups jockey for power in post-occupation Iraq.

The GOI and ISF will continue to squeeze the US for all the “goodies” that we can provide between now and December 2011, while eliminating our role in providing security and resisting our efforts to change the institutional problems prevent the ISF from getting better. They will tolerate us as long as they can suckle at Uncle Sam’s bounteous mammary glands. Meanwhile the level of resistance to US freedom of movement and operations will grow. The potential for Iraqi on US violence is high now and will grow by the day. Resentment on both sides will build and reinforce itself until a violent incident break outs into the open. If that were to happen the violence will remain tactically isolated, but it will wreck our strategic relationships and force our withdrawal under very unfavorable circumstances.

For a long time the preferred US approach has been to “work it at the lowest level of partnership” as a means to stay out of the political fray and with the hope that good work at the tactical level will compensate for and slowly improve the strategic picture. From platoon to brigade, US Soldiers and Marines continue to work incredibly hard and in almost all cases they achieve positive results. This approach has achieved impressive results in the past, but today it is failing. The strategic dysfunctions of the GOI and ISF have now reached down to the tactical level degrading good work there and sundering hitherto strong partnerships. As one astute political observer has stated “We have lost all strategic influence with the GoI and trying to influence events and people from the tactical/operational level is courting disaster, wasting lives, and merely postponing the inevitable.”

The reality of Iraq in July 2009 has rendered the assumptions underlying the 2008 Security Agreement (SA) overcome by events – mostly good events actually. The SA outlines a series of gradual steps towards military withdrawal, analogous to a father teaching his kid to ride a bike without training wheels. If the GOI at the time the SA was signed thought it needed a long, gradual period of weaning. But the GOI now has left the nest (while continuing to breast feed as noted above). The strategic and tactical realities have changed far quicker than the provisions and timeline of the SA can accommodate. We now have an Iraqi government that has gained its balance and thinks it knows how to ride the bike in the race. And in fact they probably do know how to ride, at least well enough for the road they are on against their current competitors. Our hand on the back of the seat is holding them back and causing resentment. We need to let go before we both tumble to the ground.

Therefore, we should declare our intentions to withdraw all US military forces from Iraq by August 2010. This would not be a strategic paradigm shift, but an acceleration of existing US plans by some 15 months. We should end our combat operations now, save those for our own force protection, narrowly defined, as we withdraw. We should revise the force flow into Iraq accordingly. The emphasis should shift towards advising only and advising the ISF to prepare for our withdrawal. Advisors should probably be limited to Iraqi division level a higher. Our train and equip functions should begin the transition to Foreign Military Sales and related training programs. During the withdrawal period the USG and GOI should develop a new strategic framework agreement that would include some lasting military presence at 1-3 large training bases, airbases, or key headquarters locations. But it should not include the presence of any combat forces save those for force protection needs or the occasional exercise. These changes would not only align our actions with the reality of Iraq in 2009, it will remove the causes of increasing friction and reduce the cost of OIF in blood and treasure. Finally, it will set the conditions for a new relationship between the US and Iraq without the complications of the residual effects of the US invasion and occupation.

David Weigel, ‘Journalist’

TWI — Tue, 28 Jul 2009 21:25:08 +0000

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Sen. Ted Kennedy, 1932-2009

Col. Timothy Reese: ‘It’s Time for the US to Declare Victory and Go Home’

David Weigel, ‘Journalist’