rssOn Extreme Weather and Climate Change
Monday, August 16, 2010 at 9:39 am
- 25 Comments
The New York Times ran a front-page story on Sunday that tackles a thorny scientific and political issue: whether individual extreme weather events are evidence of long-term shifts in climate.
According to the Times, the answer is “probably.”
In reality though, the answer to this question is much more subtle, as the Times article notes later. While a warming planet will likely feature more extreme weather, scientists say it’s nearly impossible to blame global warming for any one weather event.
The Times puts it this way:
Theory suggests that a world warming up because of those gases will feature heavier rainstorms in summer, bigger snowstorms in winter, more intense droughts in at least some places and more record-breaking heat waves. Scientists and government reports say the statistical evidence shows that much of this is starting to happen.
But the averages do not necessarily make it easier to link specific weather events, like a given flood or hurricane or heat wave, to climate change. Most climate scientists are reluctant to go that far, noting that weather was characterized by remarkable variability long before humans began burning fossil fuels and releasing greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.
But that likely won’t stop climate skeptics and believers from pointing to extreme weather to bolster their already-hardened positions. In the winter, we’re certain to see some Republicans point to snow storms as evidence against global warming (see the “Al Gore effect”). And some environmentalists are just as guilty, using heat waves and massive storms as a call to action on climate change.
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25 Comments
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Comment posted August 19, 2010 @ 9:07 am
using heat waves and massive storms as a call to action on climate change.
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Comment posted September 26, 2010 @ 11:01 am
Maybe we shouldn't be asking the New York Times this, they arent exactly experts when it comes to the science of climate change. Maybe we should ask scientists – upon doing so you will discover that it is a general belief that yes, extreme events are linked to climate change. No one event (of any sort) can be directly linked to a long term event like climate change, but the changing probability can. The die are becoming more and more loaded in favor of the extreme events. And the extreme events that are happening are becoming… well more extreme. Perfect example is the Russian heatwave compared to the European heatwave. The European heatwave at the time was considered one of the worst in recent history, but it has since been demolished by the one in Russia this past summer, as it was significantly larger in both coverage and magnitude.
The planet has been giving us the warnings for years. And this is only with less than 10% of warming. With continued delay and manufactured doubt, the planet we leave for our children and grandchildren will only get worse.
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