rssPost-Arizona Law, Anti-GOP Backlash Among Latino Voters Fails to Materialize
Wednesday, July 14, 2010 at 4:35 pm
- 59 Comments
California gubernatorial candidate Meg Whitman has used legwork and outreach to win over Latino voters. (Jerod Harris/ZUMApress.com)
LOS ANGELES — When Arizona’s Republican governor, Jan Brewer, signed SB 1070 — the state’s high-profile effort to identify, prosecute and deport illegal immigrants — into law in April, strategists worried openly about the possibility of alienating Latino voters.
Some Republicans, especially those from Hispanic-heavy states like Texas’s Rick Perry and Florida’s Marco Rubio, criticized the measure, and many feared a repeat of the kind of GOP decline that occurred in California in the 1990s after Republican governor Pete Wilson touted another draconian immigration measure, Proposition 187. Democrats, meanwhile, cheered at finding an issue that would resonate with Latino voters in November — and potentially far beyond. “The Republicans are going to regret making this an issue,” Nathan Daschle, the executive director of the Democratic Governors Association, said at the time.
[Immigration1] But in California and the Southwest, where strategists predicted anti-GOP sentiment among Latinos to run deepest, the backlash simply hasn’t materialized. In fact, Republican gubernatorial candidates — both those who embraced the Arizona law and those who attempted to distance themselves from it — are polling well in the region and among Latinos, threatening to loosen Democrats’ grip on a demographic they assumed they could count on in November.
In California, where Latinos make up over 35 percent of the population, GOP gubernatorial candidate Meg Whitman was forced to walk a fine line in the primary: She made it clear that she opposed the Arizona law from the beginning, but she managed to signal a harsh stance toward illegal immigration in other ways. She enlisted Pete Wilson to assure Republican voters that she would be “tough as nails” on the issue, and she pledged to deny in-state tuition and driver’s licenses to illegal immigrants — a policy which, combined with the xenophobic perceptions of the GOP resulting from the Arizona law, threatened to attract staunch opposition from Latino voters in the fall.
Last week’s Field Poll, however, indicated that Whitman is in a virtual dead heat with her Democratic opponent, former governor Jerry Brown, polling competitively even among California’s Hispanic population. In a state where Latinos tend to swing heavily Democratic, the respected California pollster showed Whitman trailing 50% to 39% among the demographic — when some analysts say a Democrat in California needs at least two-thirds of the Latino vote to win statewide.
In Nevada, where Latinos make up 24 percent of the population, Republican Brian Sandoval likewise appears to have avoided a backlash. A former district judge now running for governor, he came out in favor of the Arizona law and still finds himself leading Democrat Rory Reid by over 20 points. And Republican Susana Martinez is leading in her race for governor of New Mexico — the state with the highest proportion of Hispanics in the country (over 44 percent) — despite her open support, according to her campaign manager, for Arizona’s right “to ensure the security of its citizens.”
Latino voters haven’t suddenly taken a liking to the Arizona law — most polls show that 70 percent oppose it — but contrary to the expectations of Democrats, their loyalty this November is still very much up for grabs. The reason, according to experts keeping close tabs on the races, is straightforward: Republicans have simply worked harder to court the Hispanic vote in the wake of the Arizona law.
“What Republicans have done is they’ve realized that they’re in a deficit right now, and, to their credit, they’ve realized they’ve got to make up ground,” said Arturo Vargas, executive director of the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials. “They’ve caught the Democrats in a sense of complacency, thinking ‘Oh well, the Republicans have really angered the Latinos so they’re going to come along regardless.’ If you’re going to ignore them, that’s the risk you take.”
GOP outreach to Latinos in California and the Southwest has taken a number of forms. Nevada’s Sandoval has played up his Hispanic heritage, launching a new ad entitled “Ya Es Hora” (“It’s About Time”), the first ad of his general election campaign. Martinez, too, is cutting ads in Spanish. She’s also breaking ground for Hispanics in New Mexico: It’s the first time in the state’s history that two Republican Hispanics are running for governor and lieutenant governor at the same time.
Identity politics aside, however, the real difference has been in outreach — and nowhere has this been more evident than in California. Last week, the Los Angeles Times reported that the Jerry Brown campaign had just hired its first fluent Spanish speaker to handle Spanish-language media, and a spokesman indicated that the campaign website would soon be translated into Spanish. Whitman, by contrast, has long had a Spanish speaker handling media requests, and she had her website translated into Spanish (and Chinese) months ago. She’s also made herself eminently available to Spanish-language media outlets for interviews.
“In the past, you’ve seen a lot of Republicans shy away from Spanish-language press,” said Whitman spokesman Hector Barajas. Whitman, Barajas noted, has sat down for lengthy interviews on Univision and Telemundo, and the campaign timed its Spanish-language ad blitz to start during the Mexico-France game of the World Cup and continue during the coveted halftime slots of games during Mexico’s run through the tournament.
In addition to seizing Spanish-language media opportunities through interviews or paid advertising, Whitman has been crisscrossing the state, spending considerable time in Latino-heavy areas less frequented during her primary campaign. She’s held events with Latinos everywhere from Fresno County to Compton, from East Los Angeles to South Gate — a city in Los Angeles County estimated to be 92 percent Latino, where she met with families and attended a soccer tournament.
“The thing that separates her is the ability to have this conversation,” Barajas said. “The public has said, ‘Look, she’s willing to go out and give her position to the community.’ That is why you’re starting to see those numbers move for her.”
It doesn’t hurt, either, that Latino support for Democrats in Washington has been declining steadily. With deportations of illegal immigrants on the rise since Obama took office and the prospects of a comprehensive immigration reform bill looking increasingly dim before midterm elections, Obama’s approval rating among Latinos has slipped from 69 percent in January to 57 percent in May.
Of course, it’s still early in the campaign and quite possible that some of the things Whitman said during her Republican primary — in English — might eventually catch up with her. Her 60-second TV ad in which she voiced willingness to send National Guard troops to the border and her radio spot featuring Pete Wilson are obvious contenders.
In response to his sagging poll numbers among Latinos, Jerry Brown assembled over a dozen Latino leaders at California State University, Los Angeles last week and accused his opponent of doublespeak. “Listen, you can put up your billboards in Spanish and you can buy stuff on Spanish television, but the people aren’t fooled. The people know the truth,” he said.
Barajas, in response, says “the charge that we’re saying one thing in Spanish and one thing in English” is bogus — Whitman has always opposed the Arizona law and she’s always been in favor of denying driver’s licenses and in-state tuition to illegal immigrants.
Regardless of whether Whitman’s rhetoric has shifted, Brown clearly hasn’t done enough to make his case to Latinos. At the very least, the situation has already taught Democrats a valuable lesson: The Arizona law notwithstanding, they can’t assume Latinos will turn out to vote Democratic in November.
“The onus is on Brown to get his message out there and demonstrate to the electorate what his positions are compared to Whitman’s,” said Vargas. “He has to go ask Latino voters for their vote.”
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[...] This post was mentioned on Twitter by Elise Foley. Elise Foley said: Check out @jessezwick on the lack of anti-GOP backlash among Latino voters after #SB1070 – http://bit.ly/bRrtTa [...]
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Comment posted July 15, 2010 @ 4:07 pm
Here is something else that Democrats would do well to recognize – only LEGAL immigrants, including LEGAL Hispanic immigrants can vote! Among the LEGAL and Natural born Hispanic-Americans that I have known living in Arizona, Southern California, and Nevada, the dislike of ILLEGAL immigrants is just as strong as it is among other citizens. For those who happen to be Hispanic-Americans, they find themselves discriminated against because of the actions of the ILLEGAL immigrants, and they are not happy about it. They find themselves the targets of hate groups and are blamed for many of the problems that these states are facing. They want their children taught proper English and American, not Mexican, History in school. They want their neighborhoods to be safe and their businesses protected – none of which is happening because no one will come into their neighborhoods to help them. They want their children to be safe, but when they could be kidnapped or shot at by “coyotes” trying to extort money or create community fear, they do not feel like American citizens, they feel like targets. As long as Democrats continue to pander to a political lobbying faction that cares more about cheap labor for corporations and less about LEGAL citizens who want jobs, safety, and security for their families like the rest of American citizens, they will always be in a fight for the Hispanic vote.
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Comment posted July 16, 2010 @ 1:37 am
very solid piece. I learned the usual thing about Democrats that I wish they would learn for themselves, which is that nothing can or ever again should be taken for granted.
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Comment posted July 16, 2010 @ 3:12 am
I'd like to see Sandoval's poll numbers with Latinos. Nevada's electorate is conservative enough to make it unnecessary for Sandoval to win over Latinos..he probably gained some white votes with his stand. The fact that he has stated he would not seek to enact such a law in Nevada if elected may help his standings with Latinos, whatever they may be..we'll see.
Martinez's numbers..most recent from Magellan, a GOP firm, show here at 38%. Her real support among Latinos is probably lower. She's polling lower than Bush did in '04.
I bet these numbers would real bad if these were white Republicans.
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Comment posted July 17, 2010 @ 3:32 pm
the measure is clearly going to racially profile but they have no choice. Why can't we be honest and asked the horrible question ” what is so horrible about mexico and these other countries that they leave in droves”. Also what other country is called racist when they want to control their borders. If usa is such a horrible racist place why come here!? It is simply not racist to control your borders. If Canada was more like a poor eastern european country and they were coming in like the problems we have with mexico i would say the same thing. Stay out if you are illegal. love you if you come here respect the laws, language and culture!.
Comment posted July 17, 2010 @ 6:49 pm
Easy for you to say if you're not the one being profiled.
How about the DC cops in Dupont and Logan Circles profile rednecks coming in from Virgina given their homophobia and propensity to support gay-bashing…station cops by blue/orange line stations in downtown DC. The Tea Party types would be livid..lol.
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Comment posted September 24, 2010 @ 1:17 am
Every single Republican voted against the Dream Act.To hell with the G.O.P !
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