rssPPP: Paul and Conway Tied in Kentucky Senate Race
Tuesday, July 06, 2010 at 4:00 pm
- 14 Comments
Kentucky Attorney General Jack Conway (D) and Tea Party icon Rand Paul (R) are all tied up in their race for the state’s open U.S. Senate seat — or at least that’s what a Public Policy Polling survey tells us this afternoon.
Both candidates have 43 percent support in the poll, with 14 percent undecided. PPP’s last poll of the race, at the beginning of May, showed Paul leading by 1 percentage point.
PPP attributes the tie to some voters’ dislike of Paul. PPP found that 42 percent of voters have an unfavorable opinion of Paul, while 40 percent had no opinion at all about Conway. Paul generated a great deal of national attention following his win in the May 18 Republican primary over establishment favorite Trey Grayson, but got burned by the spotlight after he made controversial comments on the Civil Rights Act of 1964. More recently, he suggested the unemployed stop asking for government handouts. Paul’s national media exposure had a negative effect on his standing with voters, 38 percent of whom told PPP they were less likely to vote for him as a result.
It is unclear at this point whether the PPP poll is an outlier or not — though the poll’s results do not line up with other recent surveys of the race. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted June 28 showed Paul leading by seven percentage points — a one-point drop from Rasmussen’s poll in early June. A Survey USA poll from late May showed Paul leading by six points, 51-45.
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14 Comments
Pingback posted July 6, 2010 @ 5:03 pm
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Pingback posted July 6, 2010 @ 6:09 pm
[...] PPP: Paul and Conway Tied in Kentucky Senate Race “Kentucky Attorney General Jack Conway (D) and Tea Party idol Rand Paul (R) are all tied up in their race for the state’s open U.S. Senate seat — or at least that’s what a Public Policy Polling survey tells us this afternoon. [...]
Comment posted July 6, 2010 @ 8:10 pm
Their breakdown between Dems and GOP/Independents would have far more Dems coming to the polls in 2010 than did in 2008 — unlikely I think. It would also have more women coming to the polls (no idea why). Both Dems and women poll more to Conway. If you correct for this, even to 2008 voter numbers, it is more in line with Rasmussen. If you remember that it was the GOP, not Dem, primary this year that drew more voters than ever before in the history of KY, you might even extend Paul's lead further.
Pingback posted July 6, 2010 @ 9:17 pm
[...] here: PPP: Paul and Conway Tied in Kentucky Senate Race « The Washington … By admin | category: KENT, KENTUCKY | tags: afternoon, democrat, KENT, latest-numbers, [...]
Comment posted July 7, 2010 @ 12:56 am
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Pingback posted July 7, 2010 @ 2:00 am
[...] PPP: Paul and Conway Tied in Kentucky Senate Race - The Washington Independent [...]
Pingback posted July 7, 2010 @ 2:16 am
[...] PPP: Paul and Conway Tied in Kentucky Senate Race « The Washington Independent [...]
Comment posted July 7, 2010 @ 10:45 am
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Comment posted July 7, 2010 @ 11:16 am
I have to contend with your statement that “the GOP, not Dem, primary this year that drew more voters than ever before in the history of KY.” According to the official election results, 521,657 people voted for democratic candidates in that senate election, and 352,275 people voted for republican candidates.
http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/KY/1526…
Rand Paul actually got less votes than the democratic runner up.
In summary, 48% more people voted democrat in the Senate race than did republican.
Pingback posted July 7, 2010 @ 10:03 pm
[...] Kentucky Senate RacePolitics Daily (blog)Louisville Courier-Journal -Outside the Beltway -The Washington Independentall 170 news [...]
Comment posted July 8, 2010 @ 12:37 pm
That's because there are more registered Dems in the state of KY than there are registered Republicans. However, there are still some conservative Democrats left in KY and they are the ones who will swing the election for Paul. They don't like the Obama-lover candidate, Jack Conway, a carbon copy of Pelosi and Obama in terms of his political views. They don't like Conway's views on abortion rights at all costs and big government's role as Big Daddy to take care of us, and they don't like forced government health care.
Pingback posted July 12, 2010 @ 9:47 pm
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Pingback posted July 13, 2010 @ 10:04 pm
[...] and Senate campaign to small-town KentuckyLouisville Courier-JournalOutside the Beltway -The Washington Independentall 315 news [...]
Pingback posted July 15, 2010 @ 8:26 am
[...] seeing a new round of polls for our upcoming elections this fall. While there are a couple of recent polls on the Kentucky Senate race and the 6th congressional district (which includes Lexington), [...]
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