rssFinReg Update
Friday, July 02, 2010 at 4:50 pm
- 25 Comments
I’ve been focusing intently on the jobs situation and unemployment extension bill this week, but here’s a roundup of the need-to-know news on the Wall Street or financial regulatory reform bill. The House passed the conference committee version with bipartisan support, and now it only needs Senate approval to become law.
Though Sen. Scott Brown (R-Mass.) forced last-minute changes to the bill — taking the cost of implementation away from big banks and hedge funds, and charging it to the Treasury’s Troubled Asset Relief Plan and all FDIC-insured banks — he has coyly declined to sign on. (Folks on the Hill tell me Brown has won himself no new fans with this maneuver.) Neither have Sens. Susan Collins and Olympia Snowe of Maine, two moderate Republicans considered likely to vote for the bill, though Collins says she is “inclined” to support the bill. Sen. Russ Feingold (D-Wis.) is a firm no. But today, Sen. Maria Cantwell (D-Wash.), who previously voted against the bill, said it has her support.
That means that when the Senate comes back into session on July 12, Democrats will be two vote short of passage, or one if you consider Collins a yes. Over the next week, with senators back in their home states, Snowe, Collins and Brown will be under extraordinary pressure — from unions, consumer groups and other advocates on one side, and bank lobbyists and the Chamber of Commerce on the other. Most Democratic aides say they expect the bill to pass relatively quickly.
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25 Comments
Comment posted July 3, 2010 @ 3:21 am
Reversion To 10 Year Average Labor Force Participation Rate Implies 11.8% Unemployment Rate
The only reason for the decline in the unemployment rate to 9.5% was yet another decline in the labor force participation rate, which according to the BLS dropped another 652k people in the month of June. This resulted in a labor force to the civilian non-institutional population ratio of 64.7%: the second lowest number in decades of data, and only better than December 2009, when this number was 64.6%. The problem with this is that it badly underestimates the split between those who are marginally attached and those 14,623 who were formally unemployed in June. As the chart below shows, the double dip in the labor force participation is now very much pronounced.
What this chart implies is that if there was a mean reversion to the last 10 year labor force participation average rate of 66.2%, there should be another 3.5 million jobless added to the 14.6 million tally. And as this differential is the easiest thing in the world for the BLS to fudge, adding the two and dividing by the labor force of 153,74, we get an unemployment rate of 11.8%, leaving aside all other such fudge factors are government hiring, temporary workers, birth death, etc. 9.5% or 11.8% – which one is more realistic for an economy finally realizing it never left the second great depression, you decide.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/reversion-10-y…
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[...] and charging it to the Treasury’s Troubled Asset Relief Plan and all FDIC-insured banks. He annoyed Democrats, to say the least, by then declining to sign on. The Senate intended to move the bill [...]
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[...] FinReg Update « The Washington Independent [...]
Comment posted September 7, 2010 @ 9:09 am
he has coyly declined to sign on. (Folks on the Hill tell me Brown has won himself no new fans with this maneuver.) Neither have Sens. Susan Collins and Olympia Snowe of Maine, two moderate Republicans considered likely to vote for the bill, though Collins says she is “inclined” to support the bill. Sen. Russ Feingold (D-Wis.) is a firm no. But today, Sen. Maria Cantwell (D-Wash.), who previously voted against the bill, said it has her support.
Comment posted September 17, 2010 @ 2:14 pm
This becomes partisan because those not counted tend to be Democratic constituencies. Counting them would give more Democratic congressional districts and more money to those areas. There are two ways to solve this undercount. Either you spend lots of money to count more people or you spend far less and do statistical analysis
Comment posted November 29, 2010 @ 5:09 am
Rencently , I am very busy and I have no time to read the news,thank you for sharing.
Comment posted November 29, 2010 @ 5:09 am
Rencently , I am very busy and I have no time to read the news,thank you for sharing.
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