rssFinancial Damage Beginning to Seep from Gulf Disaster
Thursday, May 06, 2010 at 6:00 am
- 83 Comments
A NASA satellite photo of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill. The bulk of the spill appears as a dull gray area southeast of the Mississippi Delta. (EPA/ZUMApress.com)
This much everyone agrees is true: The 5,000 to 60,000 barrels of oil leaking from the ocean floor 50 miles off of the coast of Louisiana, caused by an explosion on BP’s Deepwater Horizon rig on April 20, will cause serious economic damage to the Gulf Coast. For the past two weeks, the question has been: How much? How many jobs and dollars lost?
Analysts, politicians and businesses are now starting to grasp the extent of the financial damage of the ecological disaster. The Gulf Coast economies in Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Florida are heavily reliant on three interconnected industries: Energy, fishing and tourism. Ironically, the energy industry that caused the spill looks likely to emerge relatively unscathed from the disaster, while the service industries, including fishing and tourism, are already starting to suffer from its effects.
[Economy1] Of the Gulf Coast’s prominent sectors, oil and gas might seem to have the most exposure to losses from the Deepwater Horizon incident. Approximately one quarter of the United States’ crude oil comes from the offshore rigs in the Gulf of Mexico and the industry employs around 100,000 people in the area. But experts admit the disaster has not and will likely not have much of an impact on the industry, its employment figures or gasoline prices in the United States.
Why? The massive explosion caused the shutdown of just three other rigs — out of more than 700 in the Gulf. The slick remains small enough that most pipeline and shipping routes have not been impacted. And the legal and cleanup costs for the disaster will be concentrated on the federal government and BP, which as a single company in a competitive industry with price-sensitive customers will not pass its new costs on.
Of course, BP is on the hook for a considerable amount. The company is spending $6 million a day on cleanup; recently granted $25 million each to the states of Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi and Florida; is drilling two “intervention wells” at a cost of $300 million; has civil liabilities estimated in the low billions; and has watched its stock drop from around $60 to around $50 a share, where it has stabilized. But the oil industry has a $1 billion trust fund to tap to help BP pay for damages, and its liability for non-clean-up costs beyond that are capped at a mere $75 million. BP — an international company with hundreds of rigs — made $5.6 billion in the first three months of the year alone.
As for the industry-wide outlook: Some speculate that the Deepwater Horizon incident has accounted for and will continue to account for rising oil prices, with The Chicago Tribune, for instance, writing, “No one knows exactly how much oil is leaking from [BP's] blown gusher in the Gulf of Mexico, but this much is certain: It’s enough to send energy markets higher.”
Analysts argue that rising oil prices across the United States are not tied to Deepwater or BP at all. “Oil prices, particularly for gas and crude, are incredibly tidal, and they peak in April or May. If you look at 28 years of oil and gas futures and prices, the average day of peak annual prices is May 6, with retail about 14 days later than that,” explains Tom Kloza, the chief oil analyst at the Oil Price Information Service. “This is no different than the temperature hitting 100 degrees in Washington in August. It’s when it happens.”
Thus, the economic fallout looks to be light for oil and gas — something that will not be true for the Gulf Coast’s service industries, including fishing and tourism. The extent that those businesses turnaround depends on the extent of the ecological damage, impossible to assess now. But in the near-term, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has banned fishing for the impacted area from Louisiana to Arkansas, worrying fishing experts and scaring off tourists.
The Gulf Coast generates 40 percent of the lower 48 states’ annual commercial fishing catch. To Louisiana, the state with the biggest commercial fishing industry on the Gulf Coast, that is worth $2.4 billion. Right at the beginning of the shrimping season, losses are at least $8 million a day. David Yoskowitz, a professor of socioeconomics at the Harte Research Institute for Gulf of Mexico Studies at Texas A&M University, says the region’s catch is expected to fall by hundreds of millions of pounds, costing hundreds of millions of dollars.
And of all the industries effected, tourism — hotels, restaurants and tour-guides — might be worst-hit. In Louisiana and Mississippi, hotels are reporting cancellations in droves. Industry experts there point to the problem of perception: Beaches from Texas to Florida might be viewed as contaminated, and the thought of the spill is enough to convince tourists to rebook elsewhere. Janice Jones of the Mississippi Gulf Coast Convention & Visitors Bureau, based in Gulfport, says, “The sound is open for all types of recreation, including fishing. I know some folks who were out this morning on charter boats, and said they came back with awesome catches.” She notes, still, “The issue is definitely more of perception,” and says that the state is launching a massive public-relations campaign to convince holidaymakers to come, including offering $75 gift cards to hotel guests.
Wall Street analysts have also extrapolated that the perception of oil wash-up on the coast — again, the extent of which is unknown as of now — will severely strain the industry. For instance, Neil McMahon of Bernstein Research recently estimated the exposure of Florida’s tourism industry alone to be $3 billion, even though the state has not seen a drop of oil yet, and might not. (The Florida Tourism Board is blaring the message that, “There are no impacts on travel in the state of Florida” and that “beaches are clear and open.”)
Yoskowitz points to one further cost, as of yet unknown and worrisome. It is with the “multiplier effect” that hurting the coastline and damaging the environment will have. And as fishing and tourism turn down along the coast, selling fewer goods and hiring fewer workers, businesses that support them, from shipping to restaurants to tackle sales, look certain to suffer as well. “If you have a fisherman who can’t go out and bring shrimp or oysters, there’s a processor who isn’t processing, a shipper who isn’t shipping, a gas salesman selling less gas. It also means that all of those families impacted are spending less money, further hurting the economy” — underscoring that the worst effects of this disaster will be local.
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Comment posted May 7, 2010 @ 12:27 am
TIME OF SPHERES OF INFLUENCE
[The Empire]
Now, let’s set the record straight the Israeli-American Empire is know as the Empire, the Empire consists of the State of Israel and on the North American Continent only consists of the [2] Two Metropolis Cities, which really combined is a Mega-Metropolis of [NYC] New York City, and Washington, D. C. [District of Clowns], It’s political Structure is unable to function in a New Era, the Empire is a [17th] Seventeenth Century relic, built for a slower time and smaller nation, out of step with the [21st] Century lacking all the pillars of a stable society their Common Language is Money and Power, their Common Race Green Back Dollar, their Common Religion Greed, and of course common regional area, made up of inter-married families of the rich and powerful or at least having intercourse with each other over money if not physically. The Ruling Class is born, raised and die within the bounds of the Empire, living only long enough to establish residence in one of State within one of the [9] Nine Regional Republics to replace each generation with yet another generation of Duke’s and Duchess in the Royal Court.
[The Nine]
The [9] Nine Regional Republics; The Republic of Alaska, America [The Confederate States [DIXIE] /The United States], The Republic of California, “Republic of Cascadia” [Northwestern separatists envision a "Republic of Cascadia" carved out of Oregon, Washington and the Canadian province of British Columbia.], The Republic of Hawaii, The Mormon Republic, The Republic of Texas, The Republic of Vermont carved out of [The New York Adirondacks, Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine, are increasingly calling for independent control and Secession from the Empire, as Israel each Regional Republic is increasingly calling for the ending of the [Unbreakable Special Relationship]. The Empire is following in the very same pattern of collapse as each and every Empire that preceded it as much from within as without.
[Social Structure Missing]
* The Empire Social Structure is not only in flux but out of control of the Empire, which lacked any fore taught of controlled social growth, social engineering by way of immigration and [Assimilation] for the purpose of the creating of a structured civilization within the controlled boarders of the Empire. As the Empire shifts to one of African-Heritage structure, at the same time the Empire has lost the entire Southwest [1] One of the [9] Nine forming Regional Republics, having been over-run by a highly structured civilization, caused by loss of control of the Southwestern boarders between the Regional Southwest and that of Mexico. The Regional Southwest is a Spanish/Mexican civilization, with a written and verbal language of its own Spanish, a Religious cementing glue of Roman Catholicism, a common ancestry, a common heritage, a common racial ethnicity, all of which the Empire lacks a common Empire mandated, by law written and spoken language [English], there is no common Religious Social Structure [State Religion], No common ancestry, No common heritage, or Common racial group, but in fact is nothing more than self created Apartheid grouping living within proximity of each other but separate from each other.
[Infrastructure Broken]
* The Empire failed to maintain it Infrastructure, or upgrade it for the changing times, lacking any fore taught of future needs of its society, seeing only greed, profit, and power as its only goal, yet another of the [9] Nine Regional Republics The Confederate Republic [Dixie] now lays in economic ruin, a failure of the Empire to balance the risk against the gain making profit in the short run, the next quarter over long-time, decades of stability and profitability, the entire Gulf of Mexico has been transformed into an uncontainable toxic chemical dump site, damaging the entire Geo-Region Structure, environmentally and economically, for multiple generations to come, which will make the collapse of the former [USSR] Union of Soviet Socialist Republics along with the Chernobyl Affair pale in comparison. The Empire has no structured Energy System of at least any stable supply, the Empire has allowed much of the transpiration infrastructure built by the earlier generation of Dwight David Eisenhower to literally fall apart, with bridges simple collapsing under the weight of use, a [21st] Century rail system, not only does not exist is not even on the book to be created.
[Empire in Denial]
* The Empire is in total denial and continues to look thru Rose Colored Glass’s into the rear view mirror of the past as the Media Messiah Imperial President refuses to accept the [Spheres of Influence], but in fact calls them [AER] Area’s of Empire Responsibility the very same Regional and Global Spheres of Influence which have replaced the Empire Nightmare of Globalization, with each Sphere of Influence looking now to their own Regional Self Interests and Self Determination, the [EU] European Union has seen the Danish Government fall and the Greek government is about to fall for not working within and for the Regional Sphere of Influence the [EU], as [NATO] The North Atlantic Treaty Organization breaks apart, caused again by the Empire’s War of Economic Stimulation upon the Islamic Crescent/Arabian Peninsula/ Hindu Cush weakening the economic under pinning of the growth of the [EU]. Were as the membership of the [ASEAN] Association of Southeast Asian Nations are working with the Peoples Republic of China, which falls under another Geo-Sphere of Influence the [BRIC] Brazil, The Russian Federation, India, and The Peoples Republic of China, are quietly working and creating the New Geo-Structure of the [21st] Century, the concept of One for All and All for One, if it is in their own self interests, and a Diversified Currency Base.
[Time of Spheres of Influence]
The [17th] Century based Empire has failed in the [21st] Century, dragging its wars of Economic Stimulus into yet another Century, weakening its own already weak social structure, but becoming an increasing threat to the Global Community. Make no mistake May to May there will be Hell to pay, the fall of the Empire is a work in progress, the birth of a new [21st] Century world is in progress, which will be built upon its ruins, by the Thinkers, Dreamers, Workers, and [NetCitizens] of the [21st] Century, it is the time of Regional Spheres of Influence of Self Determination, and Self Interests, the Empire does not live here, the Empire does not live were you are, the Empire lives for its own self interests at the expense of other, thru Wars of Economic Stimulus, its time to end the victimization of those wars, May to May Hell to Pay.
HERCULE TRIATHLON SAVINIEN
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Comment posted May 10, 2010 @ 9:23 am
fewer workers, businesses that support them, from shipping to restaurants to tackle sales, look
Comment posted May 10, 2010 @ 9:23 am
bring shrimp or oysters, there’s a processor who isn’t processing, a shipper who isn’t shipping, a gas salesman selling
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Comment posted July 29, 2010 @ 4:09 pm
by law written and spoken language [English], there is no common Religious Social Structure [State Religion], No common ancestry, No common heritage, or Common racial group, but in fact is nothing more than self created Apartheid grouping living within proximity of each other but separate from each other.
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